W Week Ahead

Week Ahead: BOE, FED and SNB Meetings; ECB Speakers; Xi to Visit Russia; March PMIs; Fallout from UBS Takeover on Credit Suisse

20 March, 2023

Key Macro Events

🇨🇭 UBS is paying 3 billion CHF for its rival Credi Suisse in an all-share deal that includes extensive government guarantees and liquidity provisions. The Swiss National Bank is offering a 100 billion-franc liquidity assistance to UBS while the government is granting a 9 billion-franc guarantee for potential losses from assets UBS is taking over. However, there are at least three key problems.

1- Among the biggest losers in the shotgun sale of Credit Suisse are investors in the firm’s riskiest bonds, known as AT1s, worth $17 billion. These money managers are set to be wiped out — potentially sending that $275 billion market for bank funding into a tailspin.

2- This takeover will not be subject to a shareholder vote, in accordance with an agreement reached with the Swiss authorities and other regulatory authorities.

3- UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said he will shrink Credit Suisse’s investment bank.The firm said in a statement Sunday it plans to cut the combined company’s annual cost base by more than $8 billion by 2027. That’s almost half of Credit Suisse’s expenses last year.

🇪🇺 EU foreign ministers, defense ministers meet in Brussels – Bloomberg (20)

🇪🇺 European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno speaks about “Challenges for the Portuguese Economy” at a lunch event organized by Portugal’s Hotel Association – Bloomberg (20)

🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde appears before European Parliament’s economic committee – Bloomberg (20)

🇫🇷 France, president Emmanuel Macron’s party faces a no confidence vote in parliament over his efforts to push through pension reform – FT (20)

🇨🇳 🇷🇺 Chinese President Xi Jinping will reportedly visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Official confirmation is awaited – Bloomberg (21)

🇦🇺 RBA Minutes for March meeting – Bloomberg (21)

🇪🇺 ECB supervisory chief Andrea Enria appears before the European Parliament’s economic committee to discuss fallout from SVB’s collapse – Bloomberg (21)

🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde and governing council member Francois Villeroy speak at Bank for International Settlements “innovation summit” with central bankers from South Korea and Singapore – Bloomberg (21)

🇫🇮 Finnish economic forecast from ETLA research institute – Bloomberg (21)

🇬🇧 UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt takes questions in the House of Commons and appears before the House of Lords economic affairs committee – Bloomberg (21)

🇺🇸 February Existing Home Sales (21) ➡ My proxies point to an upward surprise.

🇬🇧 February CPI (22)

🇪🇺 “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference at the Goethe Institute in Frankfurt. With policy makers including Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Pierre Wunsch and Fabio Panetta – Bloomberg (22)

🇪🇺 Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks on the future of the euro area at OMFIF in London – Bloomberg (22)

🇪🇺 ECB governing council member Olli Rehn speaks in Brussels on “Lessons from Europe’s crises.” – Bloomberg (22)

🇺🇸 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to appear at Senate subcommittee hearing focused on 2024 budget. Secretary of State Antony Blinken testifies at a separate panel – Bloomberg (22)

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada releases summary of most recent deliberations – Bloomberg (22)

🇺🇸 EIA crude oil inventory report (22)

🇺🇸 Fed Meeting (22)

🇫🇷 France, unions to leader further protests against president Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms, raising the retirement age by two years to 64 – FT (23)

🇪🇺 EU leaders meet in Brussels for two-day summit – Bloomberg (23)

🇪🇺 Bank of Greece chief Yannis Stournaras speaks at Politico conference in Paris – Bloomberg (23)

🇪🇺 ECB governing council member Robert Holzmann speaks after release of Austrian National Bank annual report – Bloomberg (23)

🇪🇺 ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mário Centeno attends the awards ceremony of the Generation Euro competition. Bank of Portugal – Bloomberg (23)

🇪🇺 European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane participates in panel discussion on Post-1973 Currency Regime and Inflation Experiences at `Floating exchange rates at fifty’ conference in Washington, organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics – Bloomberg (23)

🇪🇺 March consumer confidence figures (23)

🇳🇴 Norges Bank Meeting (23)

🇨🇭 SNB Meeting (23)

🇬🇧 BOE Meeting (23)

🇬🇧 Bank of England policy maker Catherine L Mann speaks as a panellist at Peterson Institute for International Economics conference on floating exchange rates ‘the post-1973 currency regime and inflation experiences’ in Washington – Bloomberg (23)

🇺🇸 February New Home Sales (23)

🇺🇸 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies to a House Appropriations subcommittee on Biden’s budget request and the economic outlook – Bloomberg (23)

🇺🇸 🇨🇦 President Joe Biden to visit Canada, address Parliament – Bloomberg (23)

🇯🇵 February CPI (24)

🌎 Manufacturing and Services PMIs (24)

🇪🇺 ECB’s De Cos Speaks in Hong Kong – Bloomberg (24)

🇪🇺 Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel discusses the labor market in Germany and the euro area, in Edinburgh – Bloomberg (24)

🇵🇹 The Bank of Portugal releases its March Economic Bulletin, including updated forecasts. Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno will speak at the presentation of the report. Bank of Portugal – Bloomberg (24)

🇬🇧 BOE MPC member Catherine Mann is a panelist on a Global Interdependence Center conference focused on Ukraine, war shocks and central bank policy – Bloomberg (24)

🇺🇸 February Durable Goods Orders (24)



Focus on U.S. Economic Calendar

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w11

What happened in the World Economy last Week – in charts – w11 (Bloomberg)

*Note: Previous reports can be found here