Top 5 Charts of the Day – October 31st 2020

There was a big jump in S&P 500 stocks falling 10% below their 52-week highs, now nearly 70% of them.

Above 80% = high enough to be a contrarian signal (usually)

Below 40% = what we usually see during a healthy market environment

Right now, we're in no-man's land. pic.twitter.com/v1J8wv0Yr2

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 31, 2020

The past week triggered about 50 more stocks to fall 20% below their 52-week highs, now 40% of them are.

Above 50% = final innings of most bear markets

Below 20% = indicator of a healthy market environment

We're still in no-man's land here. pic.twitter.com/T9tdfW38B9

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 31, 2020

$VIX Positioning spiked even more this week… now 40% of OI, one of the biggest Shorts in history.

This big Vol Short is very different from the last election.

They could all be right – but the key risk remains: if anything goes wrong, it could lead to large losses. pic.twitter.com/c5rh6kJizL

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) October 31, 2020

A bottom in US earnings surprises? S&P 500 EPS YoY has negatively surprised consensus estimates by 25% vs. the previous 12-months. At current levels there’s certainly room for improvement, but bar a further leg higher in ISM, this has already been fully discounted by the mkt. pic.twitter.com/nnwCVaLwDi

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 31, 2020

Rich world observers tend to underestimate globalization of China’s banks because they are active above all "in poorer markets that Western lenders either never entered or are now abandoning” = one place to recycle China’s $ export earnings. https://t.co/ZbAZVckyxo pic.twitter.com/6bhCsN0Wqs

— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) October 31, 2020