Most Volatile Years in Stock Market History (updated):
212 days into 2020 (x-axis), Stocks have moved >1% for a massive 99 days (y-axis).
It's Election Day, already on pace for a "Top 10" Vol year.
What a year it's been, AND still two months left – time to see how it ends… pic.twitter.com/lvA95sEt7m
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 3, 2020
Speculators are record long the S&P 500 vs. US 30 year bonds heading into election night.
Looking back, this is very different from the 2016 election.
Back then, the spread in spec. positioning of US equities vs. 30 year bonds was less than 2% of open interest vs. 22% today. pic.twitter.com/oNrfYWnrDv
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) November 3, 2020
2016 vs 2020 pic.twitter.com/W3x2ANcaXR
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 3, 2020
In mid-2018, Turkish Lira fell 45% and overshot our then $/TRY 5.50 fair value by over 25%. Key difference now is that the fall in Lira is SLOWER, but more PERSISTENT. It's down 23% in the 4 months since July and $/TRY is now 13% above our 7.50 fair value. Rate hikes are needed! pic.twitter.com/Z0deB8qggs
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) November 3, 2020
What Global #liquidity looks like in 2021. Another big rise fueled by monetization of budget deficits. Go #MMT. Global Liquidity now close to 2x World GDP. 25 years ago it was 1x! pic.twitter.com/PfnoUEQtcb
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) November 3, 2020