In our last two institutional notes, we've talked about the tightening that is taking place on main street, i.e. credit availability to consumers, which has historically been -ve for consumption. pic.twitter.com/hDIaVaL9PP
— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) August 28, 2020
Quite the disconnect. The US yield curve (10Y-3M) has historically been a good predictor of US EPS growth YoY w/ a lead of 29M. Looking ahead into ‘21, consensus is hoping for 27% EPS growth. This is completely at odds w/ the YC, suggesting no real recovery in EPS before Q1 ‘22. pic.twitter.com/Bkvig3h46l
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) August 28, 2020
Nasdaq is up 48% in the past year while earnings dropped by -30%.
Wall street analysts expect 2021 earnings to grow by 120%!
They better not miss targets at these absurd valuations…. pic.twitter.com/M1kAAWzeuN
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 27, 2020
$SPX Gamma Exposure (updated).
21DMA in the Top 20 days in data history (0.85%), just passed the JAN 2018 peak value – still climbing, with JAN 2020 now in sight.
Watching closely how this develops and IF/when it turns down.
Will revisit in the coming weeks – stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/Y8b9F1r3rg
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) August 28, 2020
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 28, 2020