Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w6 (2023)

🇺🇸 Latest #Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows banks kept tightening credit standards for all firms.
*The recent change in credit conditions suggests that credit growth should normalize downward and could even turn negative in 2H23.https://t.co/H2ZCOa3U5Y pic.twitter.com/uypB1RnqGZ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023

B of A: “.. ultra-low personal savings rate & ultra-high credit card spending under threat.” It likely “won’t take much unemployment for US consumer to provoke concerns of hard landing.” [Hartnett] pic.twitter.com/LORSM7FaWy

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) February 10, 2023

The Atlanta Fed's wage tracker shows that the pace of growth trended down in January

Pay growth for job switchers ticked down to 7.3% from 7.7% in December (vs 8.5% in July)

For job stayers, growth ticked up to 5.4% from 5.3% in Dec (vs 6.1% in June)https://t.co/fjT7EM7kIY pic.twitter.com/v9WKcJ3NJS

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 9, 2023

🇺🇸 #Fed | A New Wage Measure for Core Non-Housing Services – White Househttps://t.co/n6619eBhSg pic.twitter.com/72y4o7q4qQ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 9, 2023

Big tech layoffs get all the news.

This amazing chart from @sonusvarghese puts in perspective just how explosive hiring was the past few years.

Still 345k above trend. @CarsonResearch pic.twitter.com/VOybq0jUY4

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 11, 2023

Apartment leasing is improving, but at least some of it appears to stem from musical chairs. Renter retention – which skyrocketed in the last couple years – plunged back to more seasonally normal levels in Jan 2023.

Look for that trend to continue throughout 2023. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/r3aeqUeCxb

— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) February 9, 2023

🇺🇸 Treasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980s – Bloomberghttps://t.co/t0I0s4lCQS pic.twitter.com/oj6JIXS6Vy

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 10, 2023

Savings rate in China vs rest of the world pic.twitter.com/Zo15xPAZYs

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 7, 2023

The CNN #FearGreed gauge is back to showing extreme #greed.
h/t @albertedwards99 pic.twitter.com/Ew61oXzthW

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 9, 2023

The second half of February historically can be troublesome for stocks.

After the great start to this year, some typical seasonal weakness wouldn't be all that surprising. pic.twitter.com/JhtOp39WVi

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 9, 2023