Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w16 (2023)

🇺🇸 A Corporate Credit Crunch Is Just Getting Started – Bloomberghttps://t.co/lccalJzD9A pic.twitter.com/FM5vTVBj2J

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2023

🇺🇸 TD Spots a Red Flag Not Seen Since 2007 Coming for the Corporate Bond Market – Bloomberghttps://t.co/0RqZRoU28w pic.twitter.com/X1uQhz2PSn

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 20, 2023

Trouble is brewing.

• Core Models are overbought.
• Stock Breadth is negative.
• Volatility is extremely compressed.
• High-beta is leading lower – China Tech & ARKK Stocks are breaking down.
• The Dollar & Interest Rates look ready to rise sharply.

Beware. pic.twitter.com/m77E4GM7fY

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) April 22, 2023

The US Conference Board LEI takes the 10 most effective leading indicators and aggregates them into an index

The YoY change dropped further below -7%

Over the last 40+ years, every time this indicator drops < 0 and stays there for 2+ months we are in a recession

100% hit rate pic.twitter.com/pEIkEI0c0k

— Alf (@MacroAlf) April 20, 2023

Office occupancy rates continue to fall, with a widening gap between other types of property

Source: CoStar, Goldman Sachs https://t.co/pQFl7m5ePV pic.twitter.com/LpJIFUBSfJ

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 21, 2023

One warning sign is the growing share of floating rate commercial mortgage-backed securities originated in recent years, exposing more property owners to the 'higher for longer' Fed policy framework that is adding to overhead just as sales volumes decline. https://t.co/DaNqdCHCjV pic.twitter.com/ryjZn9x5Z1

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 21, 2023

🇺🇸 #Housing | Home Prices Fell 3% in March—Biggest Annual Drop in Over a Decade – Redfinhttps://t.co/HrDvUyJFWp pic.twitter.com/zICOTyRalL

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023

Companies that are planning to fire a large amount of people in the US have to file WARN notices.

Bloomberg shows how the trend in WARN notices has picked up recently (blue), pointing to a further increase in jobless claims (white). pic.twitter.com/PhcKCRAKvn

— Alf (@MacroAlf) April 20, 2023

🇨🇳 Chinese recovery is gaining traction, supported by consumption. Hospitality sector is leading the charge. pic.twitter.com/QlCIHbo6GB

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | Several indicators suggest #property sector started recovering earlier than expected by the consensus. pic.twitter.com/hdgT5tRVC8

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023