W — Week Ahead

Tips From Top Forecasters: U.S. Economic Calendar (w36) | New Vehicle Sales, Initial Weekly Claims, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

29 August, 2020
U.S. Economy

Tuesday (September 1st)

Total Vehicle Sales for August – Bloomberg consensus: 14.80m(e) v 14.52m prior
According to auto analysts, new vehicle sales should rise for the 4th consecutive month in August. All the specialists I follow expect sales to beat the Bloomberg consensus, with forecasts ranging from 14.90m to 15.20m.

 

Thursday (September 3rd)

Initial Jobless Claims for August 29th – Bloomberg consensus: 950k(e) v 1 006k prior
A new methodology will be used to seasonally adjust claims next week, potentially leading to a break in the serie. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.

 

Friday (September 4th)

Change in nonfarm payrolls for August – Bloomberg consensus: 1 400k(e) v 1 763k
In a recent post, Bill McBride highlighted that the Census Bureau released an update on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers, which suggests that the employment report will be artificially boosted by Census workers (+237.8k) in August.

 

Back-to-school-related hiring usually begins in August. In this context, issues concerning the return to schools may start to impact hiring. Therefore, the previous statistical boost from public-sector education observed in July report (local government education: +215k & state government education: +30k) will normalize and even reverse in August.