Tips From Top Forecaster: U.S. Economic Calendar (w42) | CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Tuesday (October 12th)

CPI for September – Bloomberg consensus: 0.2%(e) v 0.4% prior
Several proxies showed that retail gasoline prices were broadly stable in September. Using seasonal adjustment, it would translate into a slight decline.

Friday (October 16th)

Retail Sales for September – Bloomberg consensus MoM: +0.8%(e) v +0.6% prior
Once again, auto sales are expected to support the headline. According to Wards data, U.S. New vehicle sales increased by 7.6% MoM, reaching 16.34M SAAR in September (7-month high).

U.S. New Vehicle Sales Rose to 7-Month High in September, Getting Close to Pre-Crisis Levelhttps://t.co/clMy3iSpSl

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 2, 2020

Industrial Production for September – Bloomberg consensus MoM: +0.6%(e) v +0.4% prior
“Utilities” production (10.42% of the index) is likely to drop as hot August temperatures normalized downward in September (less demand for air conditioning) while multiple power outages in California also weighted negatively.

On the positive side, “Mining” production (14.24% of the index) should rebound after storm-related curtailments affected oil and gas-related activities in August.