Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Geopolitics
Follow the latest updates from the Israel-Hamas war https://t.co/3ODXWQpaL5
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 8, 2023
Scoop: Biden Tells Bibi 3-Day Fighting Pause Could Help Secure Release Of Some Hostages – @Axioshttps://t.co/GIjXf49jm5
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 7, 2023
USS Florida, an attack submarine, enters the Persian Gulf region as the Pentagon seeks to deter attacks by Iran's allies https://t.co/KPKS9EwgeF
— Bloomberg (@business) November 6, 2023
Markets
Bond Traders Are Betting For A Seventh Time On A Fed Shift To Rate Cuts – BBGhttps://t.co/vqfX3Zd6CE
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 7, 2023
US Sold $48 Bln In 3-Year Notes
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 7, 2023
– Avg Yield: 4.701% (prev 4.74%)
– Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.67 (prev 2.56)
– Direct Accepted: 19.1% (prev 21.9%)
– Indirect Accepted: 64.6% (prev 56.0%)
– WI: 4.702%
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 2.3% in October; Down 4.0% Year-over-year https://t.co/Q3oxFiR6OI
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 7, 2023
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4: 2.1% (prev 1.2%)https://t.co/GIJHH2ZMsR pic.twitter.com/0NfMjigB94
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 7, 2023
Household credit stress continued to build in Q3, particularly for credit cards and auto loans, according to the latest NY Fed Household Debt and Credit report.
— Parker Ross (@Econ_Parker) November 7, 2023
1⃣ Transition into serious delinquency (i.e. 90+ days) continued to rise for all loan types other than student loans &… pic.twitter.com/phHpvB1eXy
'Student debt, credit cards, and auto loan payments are becoming a drag on consumer spending.' https://t.co/dtSUnZR7uv via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/3zCAA7Zr95
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 6, 2023
Housing
Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US labor market is cooling this year without there being a big spike in unemployment.
— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) November 7, 2023
https://t.co/nRhu876Ot9 via @economics
Fed’s Barr Sees Stability Risk in Private Crypto Stablecoins
— Harvey Rosenblum (@harveyrosenblum) November 8, 2023
Of course, he does. Stable coins and crypto will destroy the #Fed's hold on the worldwide economy.https://t.co/pSFO3p8Gkm
Fiscal Policy
Republican senators demand new immigration restrictions as a condition for approving assistance for Ukraine https://t.co/YjxRFrt4HO
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
The US Treasury called for greater transparency in how Beijing conducts its exchange-rate policy and is monitoring China alongside five other major trading partners over its currency practices https://t.co/yCfldW84Om
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
President Joe Biden has been briefed on what his advisers see as a Chinese plan to build a military facility in Oman https://t.co/348jIutXXv
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
Markets
Good morning, Asia. This was our most read story while you were sleeping.
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 8, 2023
Yen sinks to near historic levels against euro and Asian currencies.https://t.co/QZg8LXy24B
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 #China Is Having a Hard Time Wooing Foreign Investors Back – Bloomberghttps://t.co/iaCDGpg1t4 pic.twitter.com/2UbnolNocJ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 8, 2023
CPCA: Typically, November ranks as the third-highest sales month of the year, following December and January. However, in November 2022, it experienced a sales downturn and ranked 8th in terms of sales volume. This low base in November presents significant potential for high…
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
⚡CICC predicts that #China's nominal #GDP growth rate in 2024 is likely to be around 6.3%, significantly higher than the approximately 4.7% projected for 2023. And the actual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5.0%.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
CICC believes that fiscal policy will continue to be…
Japan business mood improves, but global stress dims outlook – Reuters Tankan https://t.co/wrwT9kTvN9 pic.twitter.com/NXXZoKDRLf
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 8, 2023
New Zealand 2 Year Inflation Expectation Q4: 2.76% (prev 2.83%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
– 1 Year Inflation Expectation: 3.60% (prev 4.17%)
– Monetary Conditions Current: 91.89% (prev 90.00%)
– Monetary Conditions Next Qtr: 72.97% (prev 90.00%)
– Monetary Conditions 1 Year: 37.84% (prev 53.33%)
Housing
⚡Mainland developers are rallying further.#SUNAC +32%, #CountryGarden +15%, #Everrande +13.4%, #Longfor +9.2%.#China #Property #realestate https://t.co/bkMGjgNzsz pic.twitter.com/dVH1auZpNH
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
#IMPORTANT
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
Reuters just reported that Beijing has asked Ping An Insurance to take a controlling stake in Country Garden.#CN_Note
Ping An Insurance has 5.31% common shares of Country Garden now, according to the latest data.#China #CountryGarden #Property #Realestate https://t.co/3HTgeeSZ1k
Monetary Policy
⚡PBOC conducted 474 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Wednesday. A total 83 of billion yuan will be injected into the market on a net basis as 391 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/8UsYATOYOa
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
PBOC's governor Pan Gongsheng said in his remark on the Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2023.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
The debt level of the Chinese government is relatively moderate and lower compared to the international average. Since the beginning of this year, the financial sector, in…
BoJ’s Ueda Hints At Chance Of Policy Shift Before Real Wages Increase – BBGhttps://t.co/pMk8W852zn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Biden And Xi To Hold Summit On Nov 15, Says US Senior Official – Nikkeihttps://t.co/uFaosoynQl
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
China's delegation visits the Russian Defence Ministry in Moscow.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 8, 2023
🇨🇳🇷🇺 #China
Economic Indicators and Prospects
German companies with international operations are growing more downbeat about the economic outlook https://t.co/GSKTmbdFF9
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
What do consumers in the euro area expect will happen to inflation, their incomes, their spending and the value of their homes 12 months from now? We’ve published the latest results of our Consumer Expectations Survey.
— European Central Bank (@ecb) November 8, 2023
Press release https://t.co/KMcG7YkPtu pic.twitter.com/W1GGP9NMfA
Italian Retail Sales (M/M) Sep: -0.3% (est 0.1%; prev -0.4%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
– Retail Sales (Y/Y) Sep: 1.3% (prev 2.4%)
Adobe Analytics Report: UK Online Sales To Grow 2.7% In Christmas Trading Season – MShttps://t.co/TPqoF7Ie86
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
Housing
🇩🇪 HCOB October #Germany #Construction PMI
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 8, 2023
➡ At 38.3 in October, down from 39.3 in September, the index recorded its lowest reading for three-and-a-half years.
➡ The downturn in total activity continued to be led by the housing sector, with German construction companies… pic.twitter.com/KefqqYD06j
Swedish housing prices fell slightly last month, casting further doubt on whether they can extend the recent recovery https://t.co/cB65Hrxq3k
— Bloomberg (@business) November 8, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER KAZAKS SPEAKS ON LATVIAN TV – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 8, 2023
*ECB'S KAZAKS: WE'RE HOLDING RATES TO KEEP INFLATION FALLING
*ECB'S KAZAKS: WE CAN CUT RATES WHEN IT'S CLEAR INFLATION BEATEN
The ECB must be on high alert to factors that could keep inflation more elevated than predicted, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel says, singling out the labor market as a source of concern https://t.co/qedn6ipYPs
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
Inverted yield curves in the euro area and the US may be less valuable at predicting recessions than they’ve been in the past, according to a study by the European Central Bank https://t.co/qX63U6jZGV
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 8, 2023
IMF: ECB Must Keep Rates At Or Near 4% Through 2024 To Get Inflation Down – Yahoohttps://t.co/fONx3xhmry
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
Fiscal Policy
EU To Edge Towards Deal On New Fiscal Rules; Big Differences Remain – US Newshttps://t.co/IGSWnDYBUo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 7, 2023
NIESR Think Tank Urged UK Chancellor Hunt To Ramp Up Investment – Timeshttps://t.co/sYbclRMYN0
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2023
Energy
CHART OF THE DAY: European natural gas storage levels come within a whisker of tank-tops, rising >99.6%.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) November 7, 2023
With the weather remaining mild and industrial demand in the doldrums, the start of the withdrawal season is delayed, putting downward pressure on European gas prices. pic.twitter.com/bRWHs6trAG
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
German authorities classified a regional chapter of the right-wing AfD in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt as an extremist group, according to public broadcaster ARD https://t.co/oqazvqWqoi
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
API Inventory Moves
— Julianne Geiger (@JuliOnTwtr) November 7, 2023
Crude +11.9 million (worth the wait?)
Gasoline -400,000
Distillates -2.0 million
SPR – no change#oott #WTI #crudeOil #crudeoiltrading
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here