Morning Brief: Volatility Expected For The Coming Days; China Growth Plans Look Conservative; ECB Should Heed Lower Inflation Forecasts In March
Americas
Markets
Just a little spiky pic.twitter.com/m1XEw18V7X
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2023
Spec positioning in US Treasuries just moved to a record short…
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) March 4, 2023
The last time we were anywhere near these levels was back in October 2018.
Back then, 10-year yields peaked shortly after and over the next sixteen months, yields fell by 2.7%.
The bull case for bonds is growing. pic.twitter.com/xoINO0jwVn
Economic Indicators and Prospects
ISM® Services Index at 55.1% in February https://t.co/SNd2dXzTQp
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 3, 2023
The ISM® Services index was at 55.1%, down from 55.2% last month. The employment index increased to 54.0%, from 50.0%.
AAR: February Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year https://t.co/6laWZxLY9x pic.twitter.com/MnGrH0XiPy
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 3, 2023
Housing
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 72% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels https://t.co/wOdQZ5guHH pic.twitter.com/tWfBgprLTt
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 5, 2023
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve said that further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability https://t.co/5IGfbRv76O via @economics
— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) March 3, 2023
Fed's Barkin calls for deliberate rate hikes to fight 'exhausting' inflation https://t.co/cB5H6FUV3J pic.twitter.com/4nazQBaftT
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 4, 2023
Politics
U.S. President Joe Biden plans to unveil his upcoming budget proposal to Congress with unusual fanfare on Thursday, holding a campaign-style event intended to trumpet an economic agenda imperiled by high inflation and Republican debt limit threats https://t.co/zTsJgqvxfM
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 6, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The Biden administration is nearing completion of an executive order that would restrict investments by US companies in parts of the Chinese economy, including advanced technologies https://t.co/pD908OaVhQ
— Bloomberg (@business) March 4, 2023
Asia
Markets
Chinese Stocks Decline as Congress Sets Modest Growth Target https://t.co/rrKA188pKi pic.twitter.com/7tMdpuffPR
— World News Guru (@worldnews_guru) March 6, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
If you had any doubts still, yes: the Chinese reopening is real.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) March 3, 2023
Not sure markets have fully incorporated its implications for global growth & inflation, and therefore for several asset classes. pic.twitter.com/zXO4v68yCU
Measuring the consumer spending recovery in China: cinema ticket sales up 12% so far this year pic.twitter.com/3w24irOOqB
— Tom Hancock (@hancocktom) March 6, 2023
Pres. Xi： “At any time, China cannot lack manufacturing."( 任何时候中国都不能缺少制造业。) It's extremely clear mid/high level manufacturing will be China's top priority.
— Liqian Ren (@liqian_ren) March 6, 2023
The discussions w. Jiangsu province representatives very interesting (No video)https://t.co/zLDcN4e35A pic.twitter.com/QI0zyfWUZR
South Korean inflation eased more than expected in February, reducing pressure on the central bank to resume policy tightening. https://t.co/nPq9hya738
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 6, 2023
Housing
Monetary Policy
It’s not yet the time to consider an exit from the Bank of Japan’s ultraloose monetary policy, according to Hiroshige Seko, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Upper House secretary-general. https://t.co/0k1v3BoZ1J
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) March 5, 2023
The riskiest part of Japan’s government bond market is having a moment in the sun in the middle of a global debt selloff https://t.co/Ec2bdPLegC
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 6, 2023
Fiscal Policy
S. Korea to speed up execution of budget to prop up economy https://t.co/hKfJzlKTaE
— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) March 5, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
BREAKING | South Korea offers plan to resolve wartime labor dispute with Japan.https://t.co/vQpwfcgD8q
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) March 6, 2023
Taiwan Warns Of China Military's 'Sudden Entry' Close To Island – RTRS https://t.co/IwHfjW6seS
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 6, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Swedish Current Account Balance (SEK) Q4: 85.20B (prevR 43.2B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 6, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB’s Centeno: ECB Should Not Rush To Conclusions Very Fast – La Stampa
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 6, 2023
-Should Heed Lower Inflation Forecasts In March https://t.co/BWoi1kYSKL
Fiscal Policy
UK Treasury eyes options for fuel duty and child care in budgethttps://t.co/byKBHKAelN via @PhilAldrick @Joe_Mayes pic.twitter.com/bAzDTMSzZi
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 5, 2023
Energy
UK braces for rare weather event that risks late-winter freeze https://t.co/LEJrW8wemQ via @josefinefokuhl @CeliaBergin pic.twitter.com/LCmeOeJYeV
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 4, 2023
Politics
Austria’s Socialists lose ground in Carinthia regional vote https://t.co/nE4Nhgmoi0 via @martoneder pic.twitter.com/87WowCIKIB
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 5, 2023
Estonian Premier Kallas Secures Solid Win as Far Right Slips https://t.co/E77tVidAfd
— Piotr Skolimowski (@Skolimowski) March 6, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Germany and EU pursue talks on deal to ban combustion engines https://t.co/UsTw9TEmWU via @petrasorge @johnainger pic.twitter.com/4ZSwWxkUUJ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 5, 2023