Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Markets
There is only one other period in the historic record where the largest companies beat the smallest companies by so much over a 20-year timeframe. That was the 20 years to 1999. The 20 years after that witnessed the total opposite: Large Caps got crushed by Small Caps. pic.twitter.com/gcnDS094Io
— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) September 14, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in August https://t.co/AvZ3xJV7fi pic.twitter.com/fDoKcP9Y1u
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 14, 2023
🇺🇸 *US AUG. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.7% M/M; EST. 0.4% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
*US AUG. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US AUG. PPI EX FOOD, ENERGY & TRADE RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US AUG. PPI FINAL DEMAND RISES 1.6% Y/Y; EST. +1.3%
*US AUG. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY RISES 2.2% Y/Y;…
Initial Jobless Claims Plunges Near 12-Month Lows (Thanks To Ohio's Fraud Fix) https://t.co/2hbcwmnEFA
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2023
Half of US auto production is going offline tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/c2Oy4eRAWe
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2023
Housing
Trudeau Cuts Tax On Rental Builds, Pushes Grocers On Food Costs – @business https://t.co/gMmC2CD7ya
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 14, 2023
Monetary Policy
Why is the core PCE rate expected to show half of the month-to-month increase that the core CPI did for August?
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 14, 2023
Several areas of strength in the Aug CPI were not quite so strong in the Aug PPI components that feed into the PCE calculations.
Aug PCE will be released Sept 29.
Right on schedule: Powell & Co. have officially managed to lose a whopping $100 BILLION – and you're paying for it; difficult to overstate the level of incompetence needed to have a money printer and still lose money; next stop: $200 billion… https://t.co/ttXKhPNoXY pic.twitter.com/tSJu35Hz3T
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) September 15, 2023
Fiscal Policy
The US government posted an unexpected $89 billion surplus to their budget in August.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 14, 2023
Why did this happen?
Due to a $319 BILLION reversal of the student loan forgiveness plan after the Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional.
Had student loan forgiveness been approved, the US… pic.twitter.com/AqxNzeSO9n
McCarthy's impeachment move crashes against spending headaches https://t.co/PmO01oKg29
— Axios (@axios) September 14, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
China’s Defense Minister Has Been Removed From Post, US Officials Say – WSJhttps://t.co/g8ncNj9PVf
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
⚡#China Aug. economic activities:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 15, 2023
Surveyed unemployment rate 5.2%[Est. 5.3%]
Retail sales 4.6% y/y[Est.3.0%]
Industrial growth 4.5% y/y[Est.3.9%]
Jan-Aug fixed asset investment 3.2% y/y[Est.3.3%]#EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ Thread#EconTwitter 🇨🇳 pic.twitter.com/7buVnlwCbv
China NBS: Economy Saw Accelerated Recovery, Though Domestic Demand Remains Insufficient
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
– Foundation Of Economic Recovery ‘Needs To Be Consolidated’
J.P. Morgan raises #China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.8% previously. https://t.co/E92zFjIa05
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 15, 2023
Outputs of key Chinese commodities rose in August, with both oil processing and #aluminum production hitting record levels. #OOTT
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 15, 2023
Aluminum output climbed 3.1% to 3.6 million tons after producers in #Yunnan resumed production as hydropower shortages eased.#Coal production +2%. https://t.co/FdT96gsezW
Housing
NBS: #China's #property market is under correction and expected to improve on policy optimization. https://t.co/N2qsvT6MFb
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 15, 2023
Distressed Chinese developer Country Garden has again delayed a deadline for creditors to vote on its request to extend payment on an onshore bond https://t.co/EXRlVMxQEx
— Bloomberg (@business) September 15, 2023
Chinese state-linked developer Sino-Ocean has suspended payment on all its offshore debts, citing tight liquidity as the nation’s property debt crisis deepens https://t.co/6N38aVflpd
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) September 15, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 #China | #PBOC Adds More Cash Into Economy as Recovery Gathers Pace – Bloomberghttps://t.co/EqEz7Pm3DV pic.twitter.com/IW2Ew9xDE8
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 15, 2023
China Urges Brokers To Cut #FX Trading In Support For Weak #Yuan – @business https://t.co/o4pfnrozME
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
BoJ Sees Gap Between Ueda Remarks And Market Reaction, Sources Say – @business $USDJPY #Yenhttps://t.co/Pw27rOOPL7
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
Energy
Japan Considers Extending Gasoline Subsidy Beyond 2023 – Jijihttps://t.co/XbcSEGadKh
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 14, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
#BREAKING: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has arrived in the far eastern Russian city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur where he was expected to visit a plant that builds fighter jets.
— WSVN 7 News (@wsvn) September 14, 2023
https://t.co/mlomarCUyN
Japan Cabinet Support Remains Flat, Reform Has Little Effects – @nikkei https://t.co/ePOALhHLlS
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 14, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
The German labour market will weaken further in coming months. Manufacturing employment was still up 1.2% y/y in July. But it essentially flatlined back in April on a m/m basis. And employment intentions suggest labour shedding has begun already. See eg yday's VW announcement… https://t.co/zrg4xvQHrX pic.twitter.com/YPDu7dTfyj
— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) September 15, 2023
France trims 2024 growth forecast and blames rate hikes, Germany https://t.co/Tce7SoK2pP via @Newsbaum_ @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/MC9UP4cPL9
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 15, 2023
Housing
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB RAISES MAIN REFINANCING RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.50%; EST. 4.25% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
*ECB RAISES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.00%; EST. 3.75%
*ECB RAISES MARGINAL LENDING FACILITY TO 4.75%; EST. 4.50%https://t.co/K5r9S6QXsK
⚠ The key point ⬇
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
🇪🇺 *#ECB SEES INFLATION SLOWING TO 2.1% IN 2025 – BBG
*ECB SEES 2025 INFLATION AT 2.1%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.2%
*ECB SEES 2025 INFLATION EX-FOOD/ENERGY AT 2.2% VS 2.3%
*The ECB cut headline and core inflation 2025 forecasts. It suggests the committee is more…
🇪🇺 #ECB hawks warn of December rate rise if inflation and wages stay hot – FThttps://t.co/XQX0JvsKra
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 15, 2023
ECB’s Villeroy: Some Encouraging Signs On Inflation Easing, But It Still Remains “Too High” – BBGhttps://t.co/XGLSzicw3B
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
ECB’s Müller: Is This The Last Interest Rate Hike From The European Central Bank For Now? – Full Reporthttps://t.co/tLvkF97vkf
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey August 2023 – Full Reporthttps://t.co/1CygBgoU17 pic.twitter.com/3L9coGxm2G
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 15, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Italy seeks to reassure markets its deficit is under control https://t.co/CoDrTAmB6Z via @Alemrome @chiaraalbanese pic.twitter.com/TfCJi0Qefb
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 14, 2023
Energy
France’s Le Maire rules out big power price jump in early 2024 https://t.co/Iv0VG7rHrY via @Newsbaum_ pic.twitter.com/cS51KB3nR6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 14, 2023
BREAKING: Arab Light crude for destination in Europe soars on Friday above $100 a barrel, according to Bloomberg data.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 15, 2023
Arab Light crude for Asia rises to $99.7 a barrel; while for US destination stays at $96.9 a barrel. #OOTT #SaudiArabia https://t.co/GmrO6p44kL
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 37 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 10, 2023
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting
🇺🇸 Possible US Auto Strike
🇪🇺 EC Outlook Update
🇺🇸 US CPI and Other Data
🇨🇳 🌏 Belt and Road Summit
…https://t.co/A2Laf4NaqU
🌎 Surging Rice Prices Raise Specter of Asian #Food Scare, HSBC Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/IbCfMkfze4 pic.twitter.com/VW8vvMuhnj
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 15, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here