Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Markets
'We are experiencing an anomaly where, despite rising real risk-free bond yields, there has been no structural re-rating of U.S. equities. The likely culprit is the prevalence of systematic "model" portfolios like target date funds.' https://t.co/kORHaUk0D4 by @profplum99 pic.twitter.com/SeFQk66dVQ
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) September 12, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Core CPI inflation was a touch firmer than expected, with a 0.28% increase in August
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 13, 2023
That dropped the 12-month core inflation rate to 4.3% in Aug, down from 4.7% in July
Six-month annualized core CPI rate: 3.7%
Three-month annualized core CPI rate: 2.4%https://t.co/9tTEPjxxG9 pic.twitter.com/DrNO1udwui
Google is laying off hundreds of people across its global recruiting team as hiring at the tech giant continues to slow: Semafor$GOOGLhttps://t.co/cWN9VEUglJ
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 13, 2023
Housing
🇺🇸 US #Housing Affordability Remains at a Record Low, NAR Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aHXcJnOt5y pic.twitter.com/2NP2NFgtlY
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
🇺🇸 US Five-Year Adjustable-Rate #Mortgage Reaches Highest Since 2011 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/DFUdsIeSzG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey https://t.co/tAY5yhGRyi pic.twitter.com/uxLpxzcQHD
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 13, 2023
Home builders tell us 32% of net sales this year have been to first-time buyers.
— Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) September 13, 2023
How are first-timer affording new homes?
1) Price cuts
2) Rate buydowns
3) Smaller floorplans
4) Lower-cost finishes
5) Help from Mom+Dad
6) Moving farther from cities
7) Spending "excess" savings pic.twitter.com/l0wvAcoOcu
Monetary Policy
Wednesday's inflation report isn't likely to change the Fed's telegraphed plans to hold rates steady next week and doesn't do much to reshape the debate over whether another increase in Q4 will be warranted after that https://t.co/gV7ldNCMmy
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 14, 2023
Fiscal Policy
BREAKING: US budget report for August shows YTD interest expense is now at a record $808 BILLION.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 13, 2023
For the first 11 months of fiscal year 2023, the total US budget deficit was $1.5 trillion.
This is up $600 billion compared to last year, a massive 61% increase.
The worst part?… pic.twitter.com/FKBFQ0NKfW
The US just released their latest budget report for August.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 14, 2023
CBO estimates now show a $2 trillion deficit next year.
Spending is simply out of control.
We're digging through the numbers and will be posting the highlights.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
BofA: A full UAW strike would likely be a drag on GDP growth of 0.1-0.2ppt per week and also pose an upside risk for inflation. pic.twitter.com/Q1S0vjzO4k
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 13, 2023
Markets
JAPAN 20Y BOND SALE DRAWS HIGHEST BID-COVER SINCE MAY 2020.-BBG
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 14, 2023
🇯🇵 $USDJPY
⚡JUST IN
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 14, 2023
Huawei will hold its autumn full-scenario product launch on September 25, 14:30 Beijing time.
With the slogan of "United in spirit, we gather for a fresh start", Huawei is confident in its latest models.#China #Huawei pic.twitter.com/tKiz7kY0zx
China's #Huawei Technologies and #Xiaomi have reached a deal on global patent cross-licensing.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 13, 2023
The deal covers communication technologies including 5G, and marks the resolution of a patent licensing dispute between the two companies.https://t.co/tiRwBqKeGY
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇯🇵 #Japan's weak machinery orders, other batch of soft data raise #BOJ challenge – Reutershttps://t.co/MfaYaMOmab
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 #China #Housing | #Shenzhen Eases Home Purchase Curbs to Unleash Demand – Caixinhttps://t.co/cgpVSaOlBJ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
🇨🇳 #China #Housing | There has been less early repayment of mortgages after the reduction of existing mortgage rates, the Chinese central bank-backed Financial News reports on its official Wechat account, citing an unidentified official at the central bank.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
*Link (Chinese):…
Monetary Policy
⚡PBOC conducts 110 billion yuan of the 7-day reverse repo on Thursday. 220 billion yuan will be drained from the market as 330 billion yuan comes due today. #China #liquidity https://t.co/AzN87TjX4s
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 14, 2023
🇨🇳 #China | #PBOC’s plan to sell more bills in Hong Kong will help maintain the basic stability of the offshore yuan, the Chinese central bank-backed Financial News says in a commentary on its official WeChat account.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/aRyAifdEnL
To help stop the #Yuan depreciation against the #USD, #China set interbank rates nearly as high as in the US.
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) September 13, 2023
While this increases the cost of shorting the Chinese currency, it will raise questions in the US. In addition, as an ECB study found earlier, volatility in interbank… pic.twitter.com/xaUXHUuJKh
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 #China asks big banks to stagger and adjust #dollar purchases – sources – Reutershttps://t.co/6zrKO3evim
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
Energy
🇦🇺 Australian #LNG Workers Escalate Strikes at Chevron Plants – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9aEffsBct6
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
🇨🇳 🇪🇺 #China Criticizes #Europe EV Probe as Paper Warns of Retaliation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/l8OYQiRTzRhttps://t.co/OIrUdZaSS0
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
(URGENT) Putin accepts Kim Jong-un's invitation to N. Korea: KCNA https://t.co/gyiq9caAMS
— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) September 13, 2023
DPRK’s Kim says meeting with Russia’s Putin brings bilateral ties to new level, KCNA reports #cgtnamerica
— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) September 13, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
hat today's news of 0.5% fall may herald a quarterly decline and we now forecast #GDP to contract by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 📉
— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg) September 13, 2023
⬇️Read here the analysis in full 📊#EconTwitter https://t.co/z6arlusi1F pic.twitter.com/nCDSjJfbrl
Housing
🇬🇧 UK #Housing Market Slump Deepens With Fewest Sales Since Lockdown – Bloomberghttps://t.co/oY3rfvWgiQ pic.twitter.com/0HGyWXU7iB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB’s Razor-Edge Decision Rests on Price Outlook – Bloomberghttps://t.co/uoyxCxH0tl pic.twitter.com/vO4cqw65Pk
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 14, 2023
BOE turning gloomier on UK outlook brings rate pause into view https://t.co/selHY6LcER via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/lfT8DshME6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Meloni says any version of Italy’s bank tax must net €3 billion https://t.co/0NzDNlJ9t0 via @FlaviaRotondi @ssirletti pic.twitter.com/c5jFY4r20T
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Did Europe just start a trade war with China over electric cars? https://t.co/7bRJZtmz9s via @AlbertoNardelli @sdonnan @gablova pic.twitter.com/vAdhbomysi
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 14, 2023
Sanchez’s premier bid is at risk over Catalan language demand https://t.co/1rUIHsj5Vf via @rorihuela @nicrolander pic.twitter.com/yOZI9s1WtN
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here