Morning Brief: U.S. Recession Risk Looms Large; Chinese Inflation Remains Contained; BoF Will Raise French 2023 GDP Forecast
Americas
Markets
🇺🇸 #Recession Risk Looms Large as Bond Markets Price in Steeper Rate Hikes Globally – Bloomberghttps://t.co/lI3lGu2CMD pic.twitter.com/mvf9Wovmot
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2023
Recession probability model from @Economics (based on 10y2y yield spread) has risen to an all-time high pic.twitter.com/mb4urlYyC8
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 8, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 10.8 million in January https://t.co/Tl1Qu2T4N4 pic.twitter.com/YbsIo273Mz
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 8, 2023
🇺🇸 *US JOB OPENINGS FELL TO 10.824 MLN IN JAN. FROM 11.234 MLN – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
*Consensus was 10.546M
*Quits rate fell to 2.5% (lowest since Mars 2021) pic.twitter.com/lOqFhxrtaw
ADP Data Show US Companies Added More Jobs Than Forecast 👇 pic.twitter.com/de6wdU5tzJ
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) March 8, 2023
Three years after Covid hit the US, the $900 billion US foodservice industry still can’t recruit enough employees, even after boosting pay and benefits — > from @PattonLes for @business https://t.co/lXw7JZD317 via @thefuture
— Mike Shepard (@MikeShepard4) March 8, 2023
Housing
Fed's Beige Book: "Leasing rates for multifamily were starting to decrease" https://t.co/I4fcucaU31 Richmond: "Leasing rates for multifamily were starting to decrease, particularly for mid-priced units; high end apartment rents were unchanged."
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 8, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed still up in the air on whether to accelerate rate hikes, Powell says https://t.co/MLICsWcExC pic.twitter.com/VkyDgz9E2Y
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 9, 2023
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says the central bank needs to continue to raise interest rates to bring down too-high inflation https://t.co/yQLspJGhbk
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 8, 2023
🔵 US BUSINESSES SEE MODERATION IN INFLATION AHEAD, FED SURVEY SHOWS
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) March 8, 2023
– Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/f7bJ5bEvrC
The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged for the first time in nine meetings and said it’s still weighing whether additional hikes will be needed to rein in inflation https://t.co/UAC5jZD9tl
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2023
Fiscal Policy
President Biden To Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Big Levies On Rich Investors – BBG https://t.co/JpdiG7oWr6
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
President Biden is calling for an end to valuable tax breaks for private equity fund managers, oil companies, along with investors in crypto and real estate, in his upcoming budget proposal.https://t.co/2UPLHAaXVC
— Bloomberg Tax (@tax) March 9, 2023
Debt Ceiling Pushes New Biden Budget Into Market Spotlight – BBGhttps://t.co/IBZ8hl2spg
— Open Outcrier (@OpenOutcrier) March 8, 2023
Politics
Eberly Emerges As Frontrunner To Be Biden’s Fed Vice Chair Pick – BBG https://t.co/VV1hjPKMkW
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will meet GOP lawmakers at Iowa Capitol, three days before Trump is scheduled to visit the state https://t.co/VwzwqNDqFU
— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2023
U.S. Senate Republican leader McConnell hospitalized after fall https://t.co/VidpiWI8Lo
— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) March 9, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S. says it doesn’t want to separate its economy from #China’s – CNBChttps://t.co/IF8xZL0yid
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2023
US Intel Chiefs Warn Putin Is Becoming More Reliant On Nuclear Weapons – CNBC https://t.co/5iapGKqjVe
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 8, 2023
Asia
Markets
Asian shares stutter, dollar buoyant as data supports hawkish Powell https://t.co/UZdauj0rxm pic.twitter.com/yZftnTj34h
— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) March 9, 2023
Investors Turn More Bearish On Asian FX Amid Return Of King Dollar – RTRShttps://t.co/BFa96lNmfP
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
Australian bonds are climbing at a time when US bonds are tanking https://t.co/0ClkLvA5gq
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) March 9, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Japan’s economy expanded less than initially estimated in the three months through December https://t.co/O0svJlmmvy
— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2023
⚡JUST IN:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 9, 2023
China February
Annual CPI +1.0% [Est. +1.9% Prev. +2.1%]
Monthly CPI -0.5% [Est. +0.2% Prev. +0.8%]
Annual PPI -1.4% [Est. -1.3% Prev. -0.8%]#CPI #China #Inflation #PPI #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ thread pic.twitter.com/lN2MSONIX1
🇨🇳 #China’s Weak #Inflation Eases Pressure on Global Prices – Bloomberghttps://t.co/eU0V8XYKJm pic.twitter.com/OORNft1UjZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 Chinese bank earnings threatened by early mortgage payments – Nikkeihttps://t.co/cLormR6N3q
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2023
Monetary Policy
⚡PBOC cuts the $CNY Central Parity rate by 141 pips to 6.9666 per US dollar, to the weakest level since January 5. $USDCNY#China pic.twitter.com/riqYWpw6rI
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 9, 2023
Japan's lower house approves Ueda as next BOJ chief https://t.co/vcf4jlMdP3 pic.twitter.com/GXXZaaQkhY
— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) March 9, 2023
Politics
South Korea’s ruling party elected as its new leader a candidate backed by President Yoon, who is trying implement a historic deal to mend ties with Japan https://t.co/KckMkEwb6S
— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Restrictions on China's ability to buy chip-making equipment are getting tighter as the Dutch plan more export controls. The new proposal will would rein in ASML's sales of immersion DUV lithography machines, critical to producing advanced chips. @cagankochttps://t.co/xhqgyc8BnZ
— Peter Elstrom (@pelstrom) March 9, 2023
#AUSTRALIA SEEING PROGRESS ON ALMOST ALL TRADE BLOCKAGES WITH #CHINA -MINISTER
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 9, 2023
🇦🇺🇨🇳 https://t.co/tEFQ8Ol5Ce
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇪🇺 🇫🇷 *VILLEROY: BANK OF #FRANCE TO RAISE ITS 2023 GDP FORECAST – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2023
ECB's Villeroy De Galhau: Should Peak During First Semester – France Info
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
– We Will Bring Inflation Back To 2% By End 2024, Beginning 2025
– Will "Slightly" Raises Current 2023 GDP Of 0.3% For The French Economyhttps://t.co/opvI1X51mb
Swedish economy unexpectedly grew the most in four months in January https://t.co/xs8XPYp8gM via @ottummelas @nicrolander pic.twitter.com/pDR5dB3I0F
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 9, 2023
UK Labour vows to overhaul costly ‘free hours’ childcare system https://t.co/VwxbxKQfaS via @elashton @OliviaGKA pic.twitter.com/bB6eElcISO
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 9, 2023
Housing
UK House Prices Slide Further But Market Pessimism Eases – RTRS https://t.co/yBDG3DGjof
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB rate-hike spat ramps up as Visco slams hawkish colleagues https://t.co/TsifkiK2VX via @Alemrome pic.twitter.com/FGWl56O4E0
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 8, 2023
ECB battle lines drawn ahead of decision: Brussels Edition https://t.co/ZUGtnkCtug via @maxramsay pic.twitter.com/jwG4NvEM4f
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 9, 2023
Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra cautions against raising interest rates further, saying that doing so could damage an already weak UK economy https://t.co/wQn1UV8bS1
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2023
Poland keeps borrowing costs on hold for the sixth straight month as inflation eases from the highest level in a quarter of a century and policy makers shift attention to slower economic growth https://t.co/qBxaKxaxtQ
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2023
Riksbank’s Bunge: It Is Important That Inflation Falls Clearly This Year – Full Speech https://t.co/HOQZ1pcDni
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Hunt plans pensions overhaul to stop doctors leaving the UK’s NHS https://t.co/Wwl8GmElJQ via @joe_mayes pic.twitter.com/txahswRHmu
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 8, 2023
Energy
France vows to defend nuclear power in EU clean industry planhttps://t.co/jekOPLiMea via @Newsbaum_ @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/ZmmZS77DhT
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 8, 2023
Politics
Macron backs enshrining right to abortion in French constitution https://t.co/fjYiAI21Es
— David Alexander (@davidalexander5) March 9, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
US, EU To Launch Talks On Free-Trade-Like Status, Easing EV Trade Dispute – RTRS Sources https://t.co/fvxZx4q2gu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 9, 2023
🔵 UK ON VERGE OF RATIFYING FREE-TRADE DEAL WITH AUSTRALIA
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) March 8, 2023
– Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/wzqONikkha pic.twitter.com/fqCKvCtziV
🔵 RUSSIA STRIKES MANY UKRAINIAN REGIONS, CUTTING OFF POWER
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) March 9, 2023
– Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/T4UVTww4jp pic.twitter.com/JEJlSbw73n