Morning Brief: U.S. OPEX, Japan Inflation Hits Four-Decade High, Focus on TLTRO Repayment
Americas
Markets
🇺🇸 #SPX | Record #Options Trading Shows Jitters Before $2 Trillion ‘#OpEx’ – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/hRl0dkuiaN pic.twitter.com/WS5zSnkae2
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000 https://t.co/H47OxpNE04 pic.twitter.com/BjWliT03bj
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 17, 2022
Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge sinks further in November https://t.co/aAXgZ76huK
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) November 17, 2022
US Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity Nov: -6 (est -8; prev -7)https://t.co/6YrB2nS2Ph
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
Housing
October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction https://t.co/YRe3E9a04o
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 17, 2022
Combined, there are 1.722 million units under construction. This is the all-time record number of units under construction. pic.twitter.com/m1orFhaDko
Realtor. com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 45% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 18% https://t.co/i9dM3JBcnp pic.twitter.com/0hBE7zAJSy
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 17, 2022
🇺🇸 Skimming U.S. #Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task – Dallas #Fed
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/sIw6LK41mY pic.twitter.com/XAohJoiL3n
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 “Getting into the Zone” (Presented in Louisville, Ky.) – Saint Louis #Fed
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/LPBtbIaZrX pic.twitter.com/Vpb6jB4zTK
The full presentation can be found here: https://t.co/frIOmeT1po
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 17, 2022
Bullard offers some reasons to think the policy zone might decline if inflation decelerates, but warns that such expectations have proven wrong for the last 18 months pic.twitter.com/hgYK1Un3oO
Fed's Kashkari: US Economy Is Sending ‘Wildly Mixed Signals’
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
– Our Job Is Keeping Inflation In Check
– Says ‘This Is Not Wage-Driving Inflation, Is From Demand, Constrained Supply’
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
#OOTT | US To Issue More Guidance On Russian Oil Price Cap In Coming Days https://t.co/QHgTkE6JAs
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
Asia
Covid-19
Mainland #China reports 2,276 local symptomatic cases and 22,853 asymptomatic cases on November 17.🔼
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 18, 2022
—#Guangdong 1,338 + 9,110🔼#Chongqing 193 + 4,473🔼#Henan 108 + 1,579🔼#Gansu 5 + 1,563🔽#InnerMongolia 112 + 1,287🔼#Xinjiang 27 + 938🔼
—
Source: NHC pic.twitter.com/1jGgKrWuw1
China’s Doctors Warn ‘We’re Not Ready’ As Threat Of Covid ‘Exit Wave’ Stymies Reopening Ambitions – FT https://t.co/o2H8ZcU9VM
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 18, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇯🇵 #Japan #Inflation Hits Four-Decade High in Test of #BOJ Resolve – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/mO9rG4ZzyA pic.twitter.com/LBAJpgdrEc
Goldman sees China's real GDP growth rising to 4.5% in 2023.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 18, 2022
Goldman assumes that China will end its COVID policy in the second half of next year, with higher consumption expected to contribute to two-thirds of full-year GDP growth target.https://t.co/SC6lqWZ7zk
🇨🇳 #China’s Top Officials Give Hint on Party’s Economic Strategy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/M8rqArjF0J
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 #China’s Money Markets Ease as PBOC Acts to Avoid Liquidity Shock – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/r4i3FlVRDA pic.twitter.com/mmujnHc8wj
PBOC conducts 21 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase in open market today, the net liquidty injection comes to 9 billion as 12 bln comes due.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 18, 2022
The short-term government bonds faced big slump recently and triggered a wave of withdrawal from wealth-management products.
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
North Korea Presumed To Have Fired An ICBM – Yonhap Source https://t.co/UMyisklsIz
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 18, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
UK Retail Sales (M/M) Oct: 0.6% (est 0.5%; prevR -1.5%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 18, 2022
– UK Retail Sales (Y/Y) Oct: -6.1% (est -6.5%; prevR -6.8%)
– UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (M/M) Oct: 0.3% (est 0.6%; prev -1.5%)
– UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (Y/Y) Oct: -6.7% (est -6.8%; prevR -6.1%)
UK Consumer Morale Edges Higher, But Still Very Low, Gfk Reports – RTRS https://t.co/5m07QTijax
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 18, 2022
UK consumer confidence ticks up in ‘sigh of relief’ after Truss https://t.co/j8avY61qmZ via @rvlandberg pic.twitter.com/rswDcyfM4Q
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022
🇪🇺 Europeans Are Starting to Cut Back on Holiday Spending, Trivago Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4RvFQH2NSm
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
German labor union wins 8.5% wage hike for industrial workers to counter inflation https://t.co/ltbIEEPdr9 via @vanessadezem @WillWilkesNews pic.twitter.com/6GTLrxFE3n
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022
🇩🇪 Crucial IG Metall deal includes a 5.2% wage increase from June 2023 and 3.3% from May 2024 for 3.9 million workers, along with a €3,000 tax-free payment in two tranches. At the higher end of expectations, but… pic.twitter.com/0ATj7sSuE9
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) November 18, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 We get the first TLTRO repayment announcement today at 12:05 CET. Anything below €500bn may disappoint the ECB's hawks, although there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of the timing for each repayment window (Nov/Dec/Jan). https://t.co/jmTloKOQeH
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) November 18, 2022
ECB To Begin Great Cash Mop-Up As Banks Repay Billions In Loans – RTRS https://t.co/Cw5sulqIRo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 18, 2022
Housing
UK sees mortgage rates staying near 5% for another 5 years https://t.co/oUbFlhHJQX via @_DamianShepherd pic.twitter.com/8ZncYlHpzM
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
Fiscal Policy
The UK budget’s deadly silence on housing: @ThereseRaphael1 https://t.co/bns27K3dfL via @opinion pic.twitter.com/3mQe0TmimS
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022
Italy’s Meloni is ready to present €30 billion budget to Cabinet https://t.co/CNMvLSJbqa via @Alemrome @aspeciale pic.twitter.com/xc9iMe77g7
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
Energy
UK oil industry says £80 billion tax burden will hurt investment https://t.co/36k5qzWPWg via @MathisWilliam pic.twitter.com/F2Og5nyNB4
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Iran’s nuclear escalation stokes fresh tension: Brussels Edition https://t.co/yEpdl63L8f via @DeutschJill @virtualnomad pic.twitter.com/XftRfX67ak
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022
Le Maire assails US EV subsidies as Biden-Macron meeting nears https://t.co/lIFplDEAuM via @chrisjcondon pic.twitter.com/JgFnFRl2Ji
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 46 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 14, 2022
🌎 #G20 Summit
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Xi/Biden Meeting
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Earnings Season
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI
🇬🇧 U.K. Updates Fiscal Plan
…https://t.co/UKtLlEQWI8
🌎 Chipmakers trim spending by billions as #COVID boom fades – Nikkeihttps://t.co/SYnHRPc61F
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2022
Global corporate tax rates stabilize after decades of decline https://t.co/icuj10vlOM via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/dPvV0L3zfb
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 18, 2022