M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: U.S.-Iran Conflict Intensifies; RBNZ Delivers Back-to-Back Rate Hikes; China’s New 20% Tax Hits Foreign Dividends; Germany-China Trade Clash Ahead

02 September, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

The yields on the longest-dated US government bonds shot back to levels seen just before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shocked markets last month by expanding a buyback program in an effort to halt the rise https://t.co/UCBIrLq9Xe

— Bloomberg (@business) September 2, 2026

Goldman's trading desk: “The market is exhibiting signs of nervousness across a myriad of indicators. This attitude toward risk is not just theoretical, investors are quite literally putting their money where their mouth is in terms of portfolio risk allocations.” https://t.co/t5AJVr5QJD

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 1, 2026

Tech is now officially more capital-intensive than mining.

This represents a fundamental shift in the market.

Miners offer stronger margins, healthier balance sheets, and more compelling embedded growth.

They offer a far more asymmetric way to express the AI investment thesis… pic.twitter.com/o7CR6HPHeK

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 2, 2026

*Focus on AI

New Google AI Model Said To Narrow Gap On Coding Ability – WSJhttps://t.co/55q3NEVzCO

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

Anthropic is releasing a new version of its powerful Fable artificial intelligence model that it says is better at coding and science tasks, as well as more economical — all changes it says are in response to customer feedback. https://t.co/oF2AqAQNUa

— Bloomberg (@business) September 1, 2026

Claude Fable 5.1 (max) also costed a record breaking $8,523 to run the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index benchmark, a 56.24% increase over Fable 5. https://t.co/J0kv7MYPus pic.twitter.com/eL0crQtKxe

— cheaty (@cheatyyyy) September 1, 2026

$DELL | Dell Technologies Q2 27 Earnings:

• Rev: $46.97B (est $44.78B)
• Adj EPS: $7.04 (est $4.90)
• Adj Oper Income: $5.93B (est $4.18B)
• Infrastructure Solutions Grp Rev: $31.78B
• AI-Optimised Servers Rev: $16.40B (est $16.03B)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

Dell Raises Annual Revenue Outlook On Sustained AI Server Sales – BBGhttps://t.co/shnbJeNxZy

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

ISM manufacturing eased -1.0pt to 54.6 but still the 2nd highest since 2022, the 8th straight month of expansion.

According to the report the reading is consistent with 2.4% real GDP growth (which is also the median of my GDP trackers). S&P's version (see prior post) held flat… https://t.co/ia3t5DIga6 pic.twitter.com/zIpi29e7Ww

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 1, 2026

Quick update on the July JOLTS report which was overall rather bland with a continued "low hire (actually negative hire) low fire" reading but a couple of interesting nuggets:

Openings: July job openings rose +89k to 7.271mn but June was revised down -177k to 7.182mn — the… https://t.co/Xymhzj1ucZ pic.twitter.com/rceYEiB7JJ

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 1, 2026

The Atlanta Fed’s Q3 real GDP tracker ticked up to +4.82% as of September 1st, the highest since August 6th and up from +4.61% on August 26th (last Wednesday).

The relatively modest increase masked bigger moves in individual components, with gains in the contributions from… https://t.co/lpdyUph4OV pic.twitter.com/ofnDccHbka

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 1, 2026

*Focus on AI

AI token prices are hitting new record lows https://t.co/B4DfiWz05h

— CNBC (@CNBC) September 1, 2026

🧠 🇺🇸 AI adoption is clearly becoming massive while the deeper transformation of companies has probably only just begun.

📈 In just two years, AI usage has risen from 25% to 61% among service firms and from 16% to 51% among manufacturers. Adoption remains relatively shallow as… pic.twitter.com/ZH9MKPKxzw

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

⚡️ The market is still heavily focused on models, Nvidia and token prices but who is going to power, finance, insure and ultimately monetize the gigantic physical infrastructure being built behind AI? – FT

🇺🇸 In the US, the number of data centers above 100MW could almost triple… pic.twitter.com/fJl6HFsewa

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2026

Money spent on building data centers in the US has grown 5-fold since late 2022.

The United States is home to thousands of data centers. They are part of the infrastructure that powers many digital services, including email, gaming, streaming, social media, and, increasingly,… pic.twitter.com/yXIyrQw3Iz

— Our World in Data (@OurWorldInData) September 1, 2026

🚨 Datacenters are now 7% of total U.S. power demand pic.twitter.com/JtZTGA93KZ

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) September 1, 2026

Global data center spending is set to reach $31.6 trillion through 2050 to meet the world’s growing appetite for AI, an investment boom with no precedent in history, according PricewaterhouseCoopers https://t.co/PuhTZEi51m

— Bloomberg (@business) September 2, 2026

Monetary Policy

Fed governor Michael Barr says he would back a September rate increase if inflation “appears not to be moderating sufficiently.”

The key outlook passage from his speech: “If trends in the data give me some confidence that inflation is moderating on a path to 2%, then I think we…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 1, 2026

Bessent says he expects interest rates will fall once "we get on the other side" of the Iran conflict, and that today's AI investments could be "extremely disinflationary" with results showing up "in the next six months."

"The economy here is very, very strong and I think we're… https://t.co/IfiAadNrht

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 2, 2026

Fiscal Policy

The House voted 370–48 to pass a short-term funding bill, averting a government shutdown ahead of the November election. The bill now heads to President Trump’s desk. It keeps federal agencies funded at current levels through Dec. 11. pic.twitter.com/Fiy2iasJcP

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) September 1, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

BREAKING: Markets now expect the Democrats to sweep both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

Less than one year ago, Democrats had just a 20% chance of sweeping the midterms.

Election day is 63 days away. pic.twitter.com/MKXR0EkB0u

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 1, 2026

Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey won the state’s Democratic primary, NBC and AP projected, beating back a challenge from US Representative Seth Moulton, who argued he was too old to continue serving https://t.co/4kGmHAeXAZ

— Bloomberg (@business) September 2, 2026

🚨🇺🇸 Twenty-one military leaders have been forced out of Hegseth's Pentagon, and the list reads like a chain of command

MS NOW's count includes the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Air Force chief of staff, the directors of the NSA and the DIA,… pic.twitter.com/vXvbOhUapf

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 2, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

US President Trump: US Striking Iranian Targets Near Strait Of Hormuz – TSL
– Strikes Are Retaliation For Iranian Sea Mine Attempts
– Any Iran Retaliation Will Be Met With 'Harder' Forcehttps://t.co/IAWhltUmZE

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

Iranian Media: Some Sources Report That Iranian Missiles Were Launched Towards US Bases In The Region. – Sabereen Newshttps://t.co/nBi2t1LGXu

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

US And Iran Trade Strikes In Latest Fight For Control Of Hormuz – WSJhttps://t.co/DOTaiTI5PZ

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

🇮🇷 #IRAN'S IRGC SAYS SOME OF US' OVERNIGHT ATTACKS CAME FROM KUWAIT – BBG

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇨🇳🇺🇸 China-US Yield Gap Nears Record High as Treasury Selloff Deepens – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3ps7K9PyVm

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

JUST IN 🚨: Japanese Yen hits weakest level against the U.S. Dollar since the Bank of Japan intervention 🤯 👀 pic.twitter.com/Vi1Ung2f37

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 2, 2026

🇯🇵 What do 3% yields mean for Japan's businesses, Takaichi's spending plans? – Nikkei Asiahttps://t.co/MC9iVgFyKbhttps://t.co/K44ZeDPyzK pic.twitter.com/OAOJ4oCx3W

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Australia GDP SA (Q/Q) Q2: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)

– GDP (Y/Y): 2.1% (est 1.8%; prev 2.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 2, 2026

Aussie homeowners brace for rate hike after surprise GDP result piles pressure on the Reserve Bank https://t.co/Zubx3EfPs4

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) September 2, 2026

*Focus on AI

China Open-Source LLM Tracker

US$10-15B of total ARR, of which core LLM revenue (excluding Byte / Seedance) is ~$6-8B.

Growth has been phenomenal. Take Zhipu as an example (more data available as a public co.) ARR has grown 6x+ since March, while token usage is up >40x YTD.… pic.twitter.com/4OgqwYSwik

— Freda Duan (@FredaDuan) September 1, 2026

Housing

🇨🇳 #China Property Market Seen Gaining Momentum in September – Securities Times

➡ China’s property market may gain momentum in September as a wave of housing support measures takes effect across multiple cities.

➡ Based on past experience, policy measures typically begin to…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇯🇵 #BOJ’s Ueda Hints at September Rate Hike as Bets on Move Mount – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dvejH1EVnq pic.twitter.com/fCLKLs2Vbr

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

🇯🇵 #Japan | #BOJ Board Hawk Calls for Nimble Hikes to Prevent Price Risks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/T1Fet2ZaEv pic.twitter.com/usIdvI60i1

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇨🇳 #China Cuts Another Decades-Long Tax Loophole, This Time on Foreigners' Dividend Gains – Bloomberghttps://t.co/HdSgT1F5S1https://t.co/56IPHCjQjK

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China Derails Consensus On Communiqué After US-Hosted G20 – FThttps://t.co/rtD5LVqbRq

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

US, China debate 'nonsensitive' tariff cuts ahead of Trump-Xi summit https://t.co/Q9AxHtcmF3

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 1, 2026

AP: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that 19 of the members of the G20 had agreed to address streams of “cheap exports” that cause global economic imbalances, but said China had dissented.https://t.co/oyv4t6RaCM

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) September 2, 2026

Europe

Markets

Stocks extended their slide as the global bond selloff deepened and crude prices spiked amid fading hopes for a near-term solution to the US-Israeli war with Iran https://t.co/P5zI8DBq4k pic.twitter.com/9whJHXalLg

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 2, 2026

U.S. DIESEL MARGINS HIT RECORD HIGH

U.S. diesel refining margins surged above a record $106 per barrel as global fuel supplies tighten.

Disruptions from the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have intensified shortages.

Strong U.S.… pic.twitter.com/lti742jAR0

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 1, 2026

🇩🇪 Volkswagen management proposes shutdown of four German plants by 2034, WiWo reports – Reutershttps://t.co/RUMzVrXcWRhttps://t.co/SJ6ohTgLin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇪🇺 EURO AREA PRELIM AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.3% – BBG
*EURO AREA PRELIM AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 1, 2026

Euro zone inflation rises above 3%, cementing ECB rate hike bets https://t.co/ZXHVvq2gpe https://t.co/ZXHVvq2gpe

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 1, 2026

#Russia cuts expected 2026 oil output to 17-year low on war fallout, draft forecasts show #oott https://t.co/rejivgqVSv

— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) September 1, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇪🇺 *MAKHLOUF SAYS #ECB MUST BE PREPARED TO LIFT INTEREST RATES: FT
*MAKHLOUF `UNEASY' OVER EUROZONE INFLATION, HE TELLS FT
*MAKHLOUF TELLS FT ECB DECISION NEXT WEEK WON'T BE A SURPRISE
*MAKHLOUF SAYS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE 'IN GOOD PLACE': FT
*MAKHLOUF EXPECTS ECB TO SLIGHTLY…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

ECB’s Nagel says slowdown in underlying inflation is good news https://t.co/Cck6cpjbVW via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/moXxkgiscC

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 1, 2026

🇪🇺 #ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER NAGEL SPEAKS IN LE MONDE INTERVIEW
*ECB'S NAGEL: MARKETS SEE >95% PROBABILITY OF SEPT. RATE HIKE
*NAGEL: MARKETS UNDERSTAND 'RATHER WELL' OUR WAY OF REACTING
*NAGEL: CAUTIOUS ABOUT GIVING ANY INDICATION BEYOND SEPTEMBER
*NAGEL: THERE IS LOTS OF…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Fiscal Policy

UK military expects Healey to spend 3% of GDP on defense by 2030 https://t.co/s9AdCVPzm0 via @alexwickham pic.twitter.com/OgQwl8XQxK

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 1, 2026

Ukraine parliament fails to pass parcel tax law tied to IMF, EU funding https://t.co/NoqXdsEM8Y https://t.co/NoqXdsEM8Y

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 1, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇩🇪🇨🇳 #Germany Plans Measures to Curb #China Trade in Coming Weeks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/kZPuWzwxyShttps://t.co/SJ6ohTgLin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 2, 2026

Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a warning that an election victory by Germany’s far right in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt would deter foreign business. But no voters were on hand to hear him. https://t.co/MEJmTUdyBc

— Bloomberg (@business) September 1, 2026

Putin’s Plan To Escalate The War In Ukraine – BBGhttps://t.co/0uvWzRZ1zT

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 1, 2026

Putin envoy warns of Russian economy going 'berserk' on war footing https://t.co/O47odIixD9 https://t.co/O47odIixD9

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 1, 2026

Former UK Prime Minister Starmer steps down from Parliament https://t.co/LOhPE51r14 via @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/rwyKySPFhr

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 1, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 36 (2026) ⚠

🌎 #G20 Ministers Gathering
🇨🇦 🇳🇿 #BoC and #RBNZ Meetings
🇺🇸 #Fed Beige Book
🇺🇸 🇨🇦 U.S. and Canada Employment Reports
🇪🇺 🇰🇷 #Eurozone, #Switzerland and #SouthKorea CPIs
…https://t.co/rKnvpYBKit

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 30, 2026

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here