Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Markets
🇺🇸 Everything Selloff Snowballs While Traders Adjust to Fed’s Reality – Bloomberghttps://t.co/75L7Cg0KSw pic.twitter.com/RbkQoBWMXo
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) September 22, 2023
The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of… https://t.co/0YOPaQuOdR
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge falls back into contraction territory in September https://t.co/JYGEEQnsvA
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) September 21, 2023
🇺🇸 *US AUG. LEADING INDICATOR FALLS 0.4% M/M; EST. -0.5% (17th straight drop) – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2023
*On a YoY basis, the index fell 7.6%.
*Usually, this level is associated with #recession. pic.twitter.com/6AiWts9iV8
US Soft Landing Is Unlikely, Former Fed Officials Kohn, Warsh Say – Yahoohttps://t.co/6erCN11ca2
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 22, 2023
Strikes
🇺🇸 Wider #Auto Strikes Will Spill Over Beyond Detroit Carmakers to Steelmakers – Bloomberghttps://t.co/cVkc7JQWlR
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2023
Housing
https://t.co/fNUspmGbWx pic.twitter.com/s2Aw2vm1oJ
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 21, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed Discount-Window Loans W/E 20-Sep: $3.08B (prev $2.70B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2023
– Bank Term Funding Loans: $107.6B (prev $108.0B)https://t.co/HdS4B3odz5 pic.twitter.com/3g2vkJJBU0
🇺🇸 Treasury Buyback Plan Will Boost Market Resilience, US Debt Official Says – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
*The Treasury is expected in 2024 to start regularly purchasing its bonds for the first time in more than two decades ⚠https://t.co/xPGzNp4yto
Fiscal Policy
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇦 US Considers Twin Defense Treaties to Achieve #Israel–#Saudi Arabia Normalization – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
HT @staunovo https://t.co/nRhtNTGyni
➡ Could be important for #oil.
Markets
Foreign investors sold the most Japanese equities since March 2019 last week as the Topix index reached a fresh multi-decade high https://t.co/7PRNYJzDcA
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 22, 2023
China Mulls Easing Foreign Stake Limits To Lure Global Funds – BBGhttps://t.co/a7exvZpsYY
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 22, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Japan's factory activity shrinks, service sector growth slows in Sept – PMI https://t.co/PpkewjXs88 pic.twitter.com/QmaKGTeV4c
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 22, 2023
Japan National CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 3.2% (est 3.0%; prev 3.3%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2023
– Ex Fresh Food CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 3.1% (est 3.0%; prev 3.1%)
– Ex Fresh Food, Energy CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 4.3% (est 4.3%; prev 4.3%)
Japan's Aug inflation stays above BOJ target for 17th month https://t.co/5rbuc0T4pe pic.twitter.com/Ul4JZ7bjYB
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 22, 2023
New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD) Aug: -2.291B (prev -1.107B; prevR -1.177B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2023
– Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NZD) Aug: -15.537B (prev -15.806B)
– Exports (NZD) Aug: 4.99B (prev 5.45B; prevR 5.38B)
– Imports (NZD) Aug: 7.28B (prev 6.56B; prevR 6.55B)
Housing
🇨🇳 #China’s #property market is showing signs of stabilization as home transaction volume in big cities like Beijing has been rising fast after easing of home purchase rules, Shanghai Securities News reports.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
*Existing home sales volume in Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou rose…
Monetary Policy
🇯🇵 #Japan | #BOJ Stands Pat on Stimulus, Fueling Pressure on Weak Yen – Bloomberghttps://t.co/AmUr975p9L pic.twitter.com/FP51MN4DSB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
Bank of Japan to Continue Large-scale Monetary Easing Policy https://t.co/CsvnRn4vsH
— The Japan News (@The_Japan_News) September 22, 2023
🇯🇵 #Japan will not rule out any options against forex volatility, prime minister says – Reutershttps://t.co/G34r31H6kb
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
China’s Yuan Defence Runs The Risk Of Hurting Global Bond Demand – BBGhttps://t.co/NR8WwPuEza
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 22, 2023
⚡PBOC conducted 202 billion yuan of the 14-day reverse repo on Friday.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 22, 2023
The net injection comes to 97 billion yuan as 105 billion yuan comes due today. The weekly injections totaled 552 billion yuan.#China #liquidity https://t.co/3XEoyKeLF7
RBA’s Next Deputy Governor To Be Announced Soon, Treasurer Says – BBGhttps://t.co/Gt2We4Sz7p
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 22, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇨🇳 #China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms – Reutershttps://t.co/EJGOxZ3GwV
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
#China’s credit investors are snapping up bonds issued in its most indebted provinces, encouraged by signs that Beijing will help local governments clean up a mountain of borrowings.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 22, 2023
Bond sales jumped in August to the 2nd highest on record at 640bn ($88bn)https://t.co/ywyIGGEVZK
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Japan PM vows to set up special zones to boost foreign investmenthttps://t.co/JvGzIbNEKJ#Japan #KyodoNewsPlus
— Kyodo News | Japan (@kyodo_english) September 22, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇪🇺 *EURO AREA SEPT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -17.8; EST. -16.5 – BBG pic.twitter.com/mS9a9ETC1p
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2023
🇩🇪 #Inflation | S&P Global: "The weaker demand environment saw average output prices rise at the slowest rate for over two-and-a-half years, despite an intensification of cost pressures."https://t.co/URNWmPA2HD
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
Grim euro-area private sector suggests third-quarter contraction https://t.co/pr4UGqkrtm via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/xKkWNeglXr
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
🇬🇧 #inflation | S&P Global: "Input costs increased at the fastest pace in four months, albeit at a pace that remained well below the average seen over the past three years. Inflation was driven by the service sector, where prices were up sharply amid higher wages and rising fuel…
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
UK Consumer Confidence Rises To Highest Level Since January 2022 – FThttps://t.co/AxKPFP1ewu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2023
Retail sales grew 0.4% in August 2023, partially recovering from a revised fall of 1.1% in July 2023.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 22, 2023
When we look more broadly, sales rose 0.3% in the 3 months to August when compared with the previous 3 months.
➡️ https://t.co/GmTxquZPSs pic.twitter.com/ZEkacznE20
Monetary Policy
🇬🇧 #BOE SEES 3Q GDP GROWTH OF 0.1%, REVISED FROM 0.4% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2023
*BOE: POLICYMAKERS SAW UK PMI SURVEYS DUE OUT FRIDAY
BOE to shrink its balance sheet £100 billion, stepping up quantitative tightening https://t.co/Dk9HfI4Cew via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/YUWnNItgaQ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
BoE’s Bailey: Inflation Coming Down In UK Is ‘Good News’ – LBC
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2023
– Must Stay The Course On Inflation
– Wont Predict Next BoE Move On Rates
The ECB is more likely to lower borrowing costs as a next move, rather than raise them further, Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras says in the clearest remarks yet on rates likely having reached their peak https://t.co/pbNI9S3GpL
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) September 21, 2023
Housing
Portugal approves mortgage relief as interest rates jump https://t.co/G9g3Dc3g8R via @halmeida5 @joaomlima1 pic.twitter.com/C5rxhxW4MR
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Russia plans a new tax on exporters to soak up excess revenue companies reap when the ruble depreciates past a certain level, and support its strained wartime budget https://t.co/Lrs0OfZ7UA
— Bloomberg (@business) September 21, 2023
Italy’s higher 2021 GDP confirmed in fiscal boost for Meloni https://t.co/mEdRxvOjZm via @GioSalzanoWire @Alemrome pic.twitter.com/Ov0qmhRg3E
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
Energy
🇷🇺🇪🇺 #Russia Temporarily Bans #Diesel Exports; European Prices Jump – Bloomberghttps://t.co/rfZjajPdjB pic.twitter.com/JZTz79ShJC
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2023
European natural gas prices next summer may be 20% lower than currently estimated, consultant Wood Mackenzie says https://t.co/4RM7w3H3l1
— Bloomberg (@business) September 20, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
German finance chief sees slow progress on the EU’s Banking Union https://t.co/VDoboiy0j9 pic.twitter.com/Uun21WeyxL
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
EU trade chief heads to China with anti-subsidy EV probe looming over relationship https://t.co/UgzHh4sL37 via @AlbertoNardelli pic.twitter.com/flQVAqKBOi
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 22, 2023
🛢 #Oil Pares Weekly Loss as Tightening Market Vies With Hawkish Fed – Bloomberghttps://t.co/FZkM8YpqSR pic.twitter.com/QzRarJgIJd
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 22, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here