Morning Brief: U.S. Credit Conditions Kept Deteriorating; China Eases Property Curbs; German IP Disappoints But Spanish IP Beats Expectations
Americas
Markets
🇺🇸 Hedge Funds Cut Risky Bets at Fastest Pace in Two Years – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
*Prime-broker data at Goldman, JPMorgan point to de-grossinghttps://t.co/M4pa4hIKRR
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Calls Latest Stock Rally A Bear-Market Trap – BBG https://t.co/ZIyZPyyBhn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) February 7, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 Latest #Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows banks kept tightening credit standards for all firms.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
*The recent change in credit conditions suggests that credit growth should normalize downward and could even turn negative in 2H23.https://t.co/H2ZCOa3U5Y pic.twitter.com/uypB1RnqGZ
Fed Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards, Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate and HELOCs https://t.co/3sbowpkkmA pic.twitter.com/KQfgvKX1hu
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) February 7, 2023
Housing
The rent slowdown continues… While we typically see a small pop in rents after the calendar turns each year (and saw a sizable bump in Jan 2022), there was no pop in January 2023.
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) February 6, 2023
Rents held flat from Dec to Jan — which was a mild surprise. We had expected a small cut… pic.twitter.com/iYCZ9XHaZ0
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 Bond Traders Quickly Come Around to #Fed’s View on Peak for Rates – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Agru4GuGzg pic.twitter.com/qg71bComqn
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
🇺🇸 Roaring job market could mess with the #Fed's plans – Axioshttps://t.co/zZbZO2BmgB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
🇺🇸 Understanding the “Inconvenience” of U.S. Treasury #Bonds – FRBNY bloghttps://t.co/ahrTeY45Ya pic.twitter.com/Se2JufChmi
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 6, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
SCOOP: The US is preparing to impose a 200% tariff on Russia-made aluminum to keep pressure on Moscow as the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine nears https://t.co/CQssliKpHH via @jendeben
— Mario Parker (@MarioDParker) February 6, 2023
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The congressional #China-EV showdown – Axioshttps://t.co/3MfZ9RIYlP
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
The US has started to recover some parts from the Chinese balloon that an American F-22 fighter jet shot down off the coast of South Carolina https://t.co/lQulPBvm4S
— Bloomberg (@business) February 6, 2023
Asia
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 Cover Story: #China’s Economy Appears Headed for Uneven Rebound – Caixinhttps://t.co/z6Tw2QBQEJ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
Japan Dec Real Wages Post First Rise In 9 Months On 26-Year-High Nominal Growth – RTRS https://t.co/KLUeu8kRxY
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) February 6, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 #China Eases #Housing Curbs in Wuhan, Paving Way for Other Cities to Follow – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9QDBD4Yl9o
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
Monetary Policy
Australia raises key rate to 10-Year high, sees more to come https://t.co/GJWRP4J2Yi
— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) February 7, 2023
Gov't plans to present nominees for BOJ governor, deputies next weekhttps://t.co/jA4gE9gev5#KyodoNewsPlus
— Kyodo News | Japan (@kyodo_english) February 6, 2023
#PBOC cuts the $CNY Central Parity Rate by 230 pips to 6.7967 per USD. $USDCNY
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) February 7, 2023
The central bank injects 393 billion yuan of the 7-day reverse repo to hedge 471 bln yuan due today, and PBOC drains 78 bln yuan from the open market on a net basis today. #China pic.twitter.com/ZAS5loc4qS
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
South Korea's military said it "tracked a North Korean balloon over its territory, but determined it did not pose a threat. The balloon briefly entered South Korean airspace on Sunday, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement" @joshjonsmith @reuters https://t.co/horKESAoCY
— The Korea Society (@koreasociety) February 6, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇩🇪 #GERMANY DEC. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 3.9% Y/Y (largest decline since March 2022); EST. -1.6%
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
*GERMANY DEC. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 3.1% M/M (largest decline since March 2022); EST. -0.8% pic.twitter.com/6Jk8upYtzt
Spanish Industrial Output NSA (Y/Y) Dec: -3.4% (prev -1.8%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) February 7, 2023
– Spanish Industrial Output SA (Y/Y) Dec: 0.6% (est -0.6%; prev -1.1%)
– Spanish Industrial Production (M/M) Dec: 0.8% (est 0.2%; prev -0.7%)
UK Retailers Struggle But Consumers Spend On Films And Holidays – RTRS https://t.co/YWodafiCsw
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) February 7, 2023
Housing
Britain’s housing market stabilizes after four months of decline, a top mortgage lender says https://t.co/4fZiDY31lr
— Bloomberg (@business) February 7, 2023
Monetary Policy
The ECB should actively fight inflation until people feel price stability in their everyday lives, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann says https://t.co/3rEToY4XLn
— Bloomberg (@business) February 6, 2023
Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann says the central bank is more likely to lift interest rates at its next meeting than pause the hiking cycle https://t.co/98s9IDyCAH
— Bloomberg (@business) February 6, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇷🇺 #Russia’s Deficit Hits $25 Billion as Energy Income Slumps – Bloomberghttps://t.co/KxflkYVw4b pic.twitter.com/sYUzOl1y9k
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
Energy
UK key gas storage expansion in limbo as funding talks stall https://t.co/sVTKcfwxH8 via @MaznevaElena @EllenAMilligan pic.twitter.com/swzWayBWA4
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 6, 2023
German households, companies need to continue energy savings, @fbrantner says https://t.co/pYKg0xcJMh via @mcnienaber pic.twitter.com/RgQlE6Nz4a
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 6, 2023
Politics
Sunak plans to reshuffle UK cabinet after rocky start https://t.co/vGIwBox5v4 via @alexwickham @kitty_donaldson @EllenAMilligan pic.twitter.com/FcvNqiyXhJ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 6, 2023
French pension strikes return as lawmakers review reform bill https://t.co/L501Pg90Xk via @SamyAdghirni pic.twitter.com/bUWyd9t1vj
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 7, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Brussels response to US green push falls short, says top official – FThttps://t.co/efnoZ7hae8
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 7, 2023
As Ukraine pressures mount, Macron remains in Scholz’s shadow https://t.co/dzPSSjTXkB via @Newsbaum_ pic.twitter.com/QlJXdDPIYf
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 7, 2023
Europe has banned Russian diesel. The market seems little concerned https://t.co/xr5bk1yRtD via @JWittels @bwingfield pic.twitter.com/MOIxdTMPyd
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 6, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 6 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) February 6, 2023
🇦🇺 🇮🇳 #RBA and #RBI Meetings
🇺🇸 U.S. State of Union
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 #Fed, #BOE and #ECB Speakers
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI New Methodology
🇩🇪 German CPI
…https://t.co/z4xBYArmHG