🇺🇸 JPMorgan Model Shows #Recession Odds Fall Sharply Across Markets – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Izj6e2cZqx pic.twitter.com/flVfgUecE6

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023

🇺🇸 #Inflation #Fed | Why Is U.S. CPI YoY Expected To Slow Sharply in 1H 2023?https://t.co/dJQueiI0fz

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 20, 2023

🇺🇸 Nearly 20% of US Firms Expect to Reduce Headcount, Survey Shows – Bloomberghttps://t.co/VtIHD2ijmM

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

Recession or soft landing?

This is the most important question to answer in 2023.

Let's see what the bond market is really saying.

A thread.

1/

— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 22, 2023

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December
Median Prices Down 11.3% from Peak in June 2022https://t.co/0nahiTNTUs
It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months – and Case-Shiller will follow. pic.twitter.com/vNOC90KtXd

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 20, 2023

The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices https://t.co/M3h2R5YHcQ pic.twitter.com/0vN9LrDGwn

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 22, 2023

🇺🇸 #Fed’s Waller Backs Slowing the Next Rate Hike to 25 Basis Points – Bloomberghttps://t.co/KPujJSzFPV

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023

Kansas City Fed's Esther George says officials don’t want to raise rates by so much that policy becomes overly restrictive and the economy can avoid a sharp downturn https://t.co/Ipga9Qd8tR

— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023

Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second straight meeting.

They could begin deliberating how much more softening in labor demand, spending and inflation they would need to see before pausing rate rises this spring. https://t.co/I2baGj3aGT

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 22, 2023

The unprecedented dissonance between Central Banks and markets placing their bets… pic.twitter.com/8WSChNSXUp

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) January 20, 2023

200+ bps cuts priced in only 18 months.

For reference, in an average recession rates are cut by 300-350 bps over that time period. pic.twitter.com/yjLop5BDDR

— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 21, 2023

🇧🇷 🇦🇷 #Brazil and #Argentina to start preparations for a common currency – FThttps://t.co/3uJ9YiMisZ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the department doesn’t prioritize some bills over others, and that any non-payment of obligations is a default https://t.co/He74TaOX5F

— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023

The U.S. president and the new speaker, Kevin McCarthy, are to discuss a variety of issues, but negotiation on raising the U.S. debt limit is off the table, the White House said. https://t.co/AdbHPXIqGI

— The Japan Times (@japantimes) January 21, 2023

The Justice Department found six items containing classified information during a search of U.S. President #JoeBiden’s home in Delaware. https://t.co/ec8PF2LGGB

— BQ Prime (@bqprime) January 22, 2023

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said time is running out to give Ukraine the advanced weapons it needs before an expected Russian offensive in the spring https://t.co/MOoYXEDjZh

— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023

US, Allies Agree to Review Russian Crude Price Cap in March#oott #Russia https://t.co/9KJCxI35zT

— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) January 21, 2023

🇨🇳 #China celebrates lunar new year as #Covid infections hit 80% – FThttps://t.co/2rYI3DRprW

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

🇨🇳 #China’s Reopening Comes With a $720 Billion #Inflation Bomb – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aN3BPOJYdS pic.twitter.com/SEBumEjNIK

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

🇰🇷 #SouthKorea Trade Data Show Export Slump Persisting – Bloomberg
*Average shipments that exclude working-day differences decreased 8.8% in the first 20 days of January (vs -9.6% for the full month of December)https://t.co/n28pm4DA7a pic.twitter.com/ylOtloLMsH

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

Chinese demand for aluminum, nickel & copper represents ~60% of global demand.

The Chinese reopening backed by pent-up stimulus is a strong tailwind for base metals. pic.twitter.com/oy4dgRjzLt

— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 22, 2023

Bank of Japan's policy tweak drew rare request from government for a break https://t.co/XM2FUm9EgM pic.twitter.com/uhlRkDRxG2

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 23, 2023

Davos 2023 BOJ's Kuroda vows to keep ultra-loose policy https://t.co/iZ6d4lrbm3 pic.twitter.com/DAb2BG4IIR

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) January 20, 2023

🇯🇵 #Japan’s Kishida Says Too Early to Discuss #BOJ Accord Revision – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ieIHTAoIvE

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

🇯🇵 #Japan #BOJ | Asset Managers Turn #Yen Bullish for the First Time Since 2021 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/okk8R7XjeZ pic.twitter.com/tmriB7Gu5K

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

Incoming New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is looking to prioritize "bread-and-butter issues" in a bid to win back voters https://t.co/zWjOOtgC6O

— Bloomberg (@business) January 23, 2023

Australia eyes more sea mines to shore up maritime defence amid China’s influence in Pacific https://t.co/GyvQ5ggfjl

— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) January 23, 2023

Nothing much on the agenda in Europe todayhttps://t.co/w2388DRCIR

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 23, 2023

Milan luxury real estate booms as bankers leave London for Italyhttps://t.co/G11zh4S48s via @CityLab @antoniovanuzzo @ssirletti @LCasiraghi pic.twitter.com/DOM0soYMbN

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 21, 2023

Europe is bracing for a sharp and abrupt real estate reversal https://t.co/CzLf9jrSNA via @JackSidders pic.twitter.com/MjADI2jHi1

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 23, 2023

ECB President Christine Lagarde says policymakers mustn’t let up in their battle with inflation — even as the spike in prices appears to have peaked https://t.co/7jWNKC5k1i

— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023

ECB's Holzmann: I expect multiple rate hikes of 50 basis point at least in the 1H of 2023https://t.co/0m7vc3rNsb

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 20, 2023

ECB’s Rehn sees grounds for significant rate hikes in spring https://t.co/BL0AMSejEM via @LeoLaikola pic.twitter.com/rlx6U8A8Fe

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 21, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1617053568376209413

🇨🇭 Swiss #Inflation May Have Peaked, SNB’s Jordan Tells SaW – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9G0omQSIIQ pic.twitter.com/fMPudPDoNk

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023

Germany and France warned that European businesses will need to unleash investments on a nearly unparalleled scale to keep from falling behind US and Chinese companies https://t.co/2NRGFhZ51d

— Bloomberg (@business) January 22, 2023

Germany and France have plans for a Paris-Berlin high-speed train https://t.co/2mwuvs7okx

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 22, 2023

Macron, Scholz: Europe Needs To Invest More In Defence Industry – @faznet https://t.co/iKxe4K9yNg

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 20, 2023

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 What #Europe Risks With Wider Sanctions on Russian #Oil – Bloomberghttps://t.co/6KSZNWDDRk pic.twitter.com/PGLhS2wEuL

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023

Scholz and Macron pledge to strengthen the EU in response to Russia https://t.co/f15Ey58Agw pic.twitter.com/TvaKvvS8gc

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 22, 2023

🇷🇺 🌎 Top Russian official warns of ‘global tragedy’ if allies send Ukraine new weapons – New York Posthttps://t.co/dk98ZAROVB

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023

⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 4 (2023) ⚠

🇨🇦 #BOC Meeting
🇯🇵 #BOJ Minutes
🇪🇺 #ECB Speakers
🌎 Flash PMIs
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP
🇪🇸 Spanish GDP
…https://t.co/wIDbXSpk2n

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023