Markets
🇺🇸 JPMorgan Model Shows #Recession Odds Fall Sharply Across Markets – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Izj6e2cZqx pic.twitter.com/flVfgUecE6
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 #Inflation #Fed | Why Is U.S. CPI YoY Expected To Slow Sharply in 1H 2023?https://t.co/dJQueiI0fz
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 20, 2023
🇺🇸 Nearly 20% of US Firms Expect to Reduce Headcount, Survey Shows – Bloomberghttps://t.co/VtIHD2ijmM
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
Recession or soft landing?
— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 22, 2023
This is the most important question to answer in 2023.
Let's see what the bond market is really saying.
A thread.
1/
*Housing
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 20, 2023
Median Prices Down 11.3% from Peak in June 2022https://t.co/0nahiTNTUs
It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months – and Case-Shiller will follow. pic.twitter.com/vNOC90KtXd
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices https://t.co/M3h2R5YHcQ pic.twitter.com/0vN9LrDGwn
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 22, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 #Fed’s Waller Backs Slowing the Next Rate Hike to 25 Basis Points – Bloomberghttps://t.co/KPujJSzFPV
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023
Kansas City Fed's Esther George says officials don’t want to raise rates by so much that policy becomes overly restrictive and the economy can avoid a sharp downturn https://t.co/Ipga9Qd8tR
— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023
Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second straight meeting.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 22, 2023
They could begin deliberating how much more softening in labor demand, spending and inflation they would need to see before pausing rate rises this spring. https://t.co/I2baGj3aGT
The unprecedented dissonance between Central Banks and markets placing their bets… pic.twitter.com/8WSChNSXUp
— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) January 20, 2023
200+ bps cuts priced in only 18 months.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 21, 2023
For reference, in an average recession rates are cut by 300-350 bps over that time period. pic.twitter.com/yjLop5BDDR
🇧🇷 🇦🇷 #Brazil and #Argentina to start preparations for a common currency – FThttps://t.co/3uJ9YiMisZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the department doesn’t prioritize some bills over others, and that any non-payment of obligations is a default https://t.co/He74TaOX5F
— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023
The U.S. president and the new speaker, Kevin McCarthy, are to discuss a variety of issues, but negotiation on raising the U.S. debt limit is off the table, the White House said. https://t.co/AdbHPXIqGI
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) January 21, 2023
Politics
The Justice Department found six items containing classified information during a search of U.S. President #JoeBiden’s home in Delaware. https://t.co/ec8PF2LGGB
— BQ Prime (@bqprime) January 22, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said time is running out to give Ukraine the advanced weapons it needs before an expected Russian offensive in the spring https://t.co/MOoYXEDjZh
— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023
US, Allies Agree to Review Russian Crude Price Cap in March#oott #Russia https://t.co/9KJCxI35zT
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) January 21, 2023
Covid-19
🇨🇳 #China celebrates lunar new year as #Covid infections hit 80% – FThttps://t.co/2rYI3DRprW
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 #China’s Reopening Comes With a $720 Billion #Inflation Bomb – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aN3BPOJYdS pic.twitter.com/SEBumEjNIK
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
🇰🇷 #SouthKorea Trade Data Show Export Slump Persisting – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
*Average shipments that exclude working-day differences decreased 8.8% in the first 20 days of January (vs -9.6% for the full month of December)https://t.co/n28pm4DA7a pic.twitter.com/ylOtloLMsH
Chinese demand for aluminum, nickel & copper represents ~60% of global demand.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 22, 2023
The Chinese reopening backed by pent-up stimulus is a strong tailwind for base metals. pic.twitter.com/oy4dgRjzLt
Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan's policy tweak drew rare request from government for a break https://t.co/XM2FUm9EgM pic.twitter.com/uhlRkDRxG2
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 23, 2023
Davos 2023 BOJ's Kuroda vows to keep ultra-loose policy https://t.co/iZ6d4lrbm3 pic.twitter.com/DAb2BG4IIR
— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) January 20, 2023
🇯🇵 #Japan’s Kishida Says Too Early to Discuss #BOJ Accord Revision – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ieIHTAoIvE
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
🇯🇵 #Japan #BOJ | Asset Managers Turn #Yen Bullish for the First Time Since 2021 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/okk8R7XjeZ pic.twitter.com/tmriB7Gu5K
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
Politics
Incoming New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is looking to prioritize "bread-and-butter issues" in a bid to win back voters https://t.co/zWjOOtgC6O
— Bloomberg (@business) January 23, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Australia eyes more sea mines to shore up maritime defence amid China’s influence in Pacific https://t.co/GyvQ5ggfjl
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) January 23, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Nothing much on the agenda in Europe todayhttps://t.co/w2388DRCIR
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 23, 2023
Housing
Milan luxury real estate booms as bankers leave London for Italyhttps://t.co/G11zh4S48s via @CityLab @antoniovanuzzo @ssirletti @LCasiraghi pic.twitter.com/DOM0soYMbN
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 21, 2023
Europe is bracing for a sharp and abrupt real estate reversal https://t.co/CzLf9jrSNA via @JackSidders pic.twitter.com/MjADI2jHi1
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 23, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB President Christine Lagarde says policymakers mustn’t let up in their battle with inflation — even as the spike in prices appears to have peaked https://t.co/7jWNKC5k1i
— Bloomberg (@business) January 20, 2023
ECB's Holzmann: I expect multiple rate hikes of 50 basis point at least in the 1H of 2023https://t.co/0m7vc3rNsb
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 20, 2023
ECB’s Rehn sees grounds for significant rate hikes in spring https://t.co/BL0AMSejEM via @LeoLaikola pic.twitter.com/rlx6U8A8Fe
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 21, 2023
🇨🇭 Swiss #Inflation May Have Peaked, SNB’s Jordan Tells SaW – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9G0omQSIIQ pic.twitter.com/fMPudPDoNk
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Germany and France warned that European businesses will need to unleash investments on a nearly unparalleled scale to keep from falling behind US and Chinese companies https://t.co/2NRGFhZ51d
— Bloomberg (@business) January 22, 2023
Germany and France have plans for a Paris-Berlin high-speed train https://t.co/2mwuvs7okx
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 22, 2023
Macron, Scholz: Europe Needs To Invest More In Defence Industry – @faznet https://t.co/iKxe4K9yNg
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 20, 2023
Energy
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 What #Europe Risks With Wider Sanctions on Russian #Oil – Bloomberghttps://t.co/6KSZNWDDRk pic.twitter.com/PGLhS2wEuL
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 21, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Scholz and Macron pledge to strengthen the EU in response to Russia https://t.co/f15Ey58Agw pic.twitter.com/TvaKvvS8gc
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 22, 2023
🇷🇺 🌎 Top Russian official warns of ‘global tragedy’ if allies send Ukraine new weapons – New York Posthttps://t.co/dk98ZAROVB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 4 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 23, 2023
🇨🇦 #BOC Meeting
🇯🇵 #BOJ Minutes
🇪🇺 #ECB Speakers
🌎 Flash PMIs
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP
🇪🇸 Spanish GDP
…https://t.co/wIDbXSpk2n