🌎 Global equity allocation is at a 17-month high, showing that investor sentiment is no longer extremely bearish, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey – Bloomberg
*But sentiment isn’t bullish yet, as allocations are still underweight and cash levels are…

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

🇺🇸 US companies opt for short-term debt in bet that yields have peaked – FThttps://t.co/WaFoiX4f40 pic.twitter.com/64lE7IzqfT

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

The last 3 times this happened, USD saw more upside in the near term

Weekly momentum (MACD) is on the brink of crossing above the 0 line for the first time in over a year pic.twitter.com/qRvS5HZnv5

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 11, 2023

🇺🇸 The Mighty American Consumer Is About to Hit a Wall, Investors Say – Bloomberghttps://t.co/CEkXe2by4q pic.twitter.com/eVZ6SQrUDN

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 11, 2023

Household excess savings are exhausted, per @jpmorgan pic.twitter.com/ddwEub1yIv

— Markets & Mayhem 🤖 (@Mayhem4Markets) September 12, 2023

The New York Fed's survey found inflation expectations ticked up 0.1 pp to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon

But measures of longer-term expectations have drifted down. The three-year ahead expectations measure dropped to 2.8%, in the prepandemic rangehttps://t.co/eiB3NEA7j3 pic.twitter.com/dvb2vuC3qf

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 11, 2023

With this morning's release of the FRBNY's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August, I thought it would be a good time to refresh my chart tracking medium-term inflation expectations across various sources.

While most of the talk is about the rate of inflation expected one… pic.twitter.com/rUuEPqEtxZ

— Parker Ross (@Econ_Parker) September 11, 2023

The share of U.S. households reporting that it's harder to obtain credit than one year ago hit a new high in the New York Fed's consumer survey, which is around 10 years oldhttps://t.co/5NNJD4qrky pic.twitter.com/1LIZfapcMQ

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 11, 2023

Percent of Russell 3000 Earnings Calls Mentioning Student Loans pic.twitter.com/79uQ2rjWIe

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 11, 2023

Based on consensus forecasts, the rate of change in y/y core CPI is expected to decline a full percentage point from 5.3% to 4.3% in the three months ending August. Outside of May 2020, it would be the largest three-month decline since July 1983. pic.twitter.com/frqckbOdpN

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 11, 2023

Housing September 11th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 6.9% Year-over-year https://t.co/l6ViFxKFnX pic.twitter.com/d8bEs56Fys

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 11, 2023

https://t.co/fNUspmGbWx pic.twitter.com/dfV5OIabEM

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 11, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1701225539942445169

New: Trump advisers looking at push to lower corporate tax rate to *15%,* per multiple sources

Strong interest in further lowering corporate rate

GOP's 2017 tax law lowered it from 35% to 21%

Ds see corporate tax cuts as Trump political kryptonitehttps://t.co/fve6reuADQ

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) September 11, 2023

For the last 20+ years, Saudi Arabia has invested excess profits from higher oil prices into US assets.

However, that trend has been completely broken this year.

Despite oil prices rising 30%+ this summer and trading near $90/barrel, Saudi Arabia's investments in US assets are… pic.twitter.com/kalx4HeQmB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 12, 2023

US TREASURIES: China + Japan now holding just under 8% of the total, compared with a high of 25.4% in 2007

— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) September 11, 2023

Shutdown risk looms as US Congress faces spending, impeachment brawl https://t.co/2XzeRgrmlp pic.twitter.com/mvWqzhUWhx

— Reuters World (@ReutersWorld) September 11, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1701491597437792425

Two U.S. lawmakers called for closing loopholes in technology export controls, following Huawei's release of its first 5G phone using China-made chips. https://t.co/6PWTbFkIzJ

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 11, 2023

🇨🇳 #China Stock Traders Load Up on Leverage With New Rule Relaxation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/lFql4E5Izf pic.twitter.com/kwTp5QuHtE

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

Some heads of major insurance institutions expressed their confidence in the investment value of the Chinese capital market and stated that they will fully leverage its role as a "ballast stone" by continuously increasing the scale of equity asset allocation.-state media#China https://t.co/WfyyO1qO5t

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 12, 2023

🇺🇸 🇯🇵 #BOJ | #Fed Threat Means #Yen Intervention Still in Play After Rally – Bloomberghttps://t.co/uanl2KFeWG pic.twitter.com/jgzbMONHTt

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

Japan's 20-year bond yield rises by 1.5 bps to 1.47%, the highest since May 2014.
🇯🇵 $USDJPY https://t.co/54RNiK1mwJ pic.twitter.com/C8kjgGdhVn

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 12, 2023

China remains a key point of interest for us as we explore the global economic cool-down.

Beginning in 2022, consumer confidence in China took a huge plunge.

It began to recover in 2023 only to fall back to its lows now.

Not even 2001 or 2008 came with lower consumer… pic.twitter.com/RUPujO4E5T

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2023

China Set To Overtake Japan As World’s Biggest Car Exporter – @FThttps://t.co/jNyHtCeULt

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 12, 2023

NZ Tsy Sees Economy Avoiding Double-Dip Recession
– Annual Avg GDP Growth Seen At 1.3% In 2023-24
– Budget Deficit Seen At NZD11.4 Bln
– Net Debt Peaking Seen At 22.8% Of GDP In 2024-25
– Pushes Back F’cast On Return To Budget Surplus By One Year To 2027https://t.co/2vbg6eQQrP pic.twitter.com/jgcrMSXLXM

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China #Housing | #Fuzhou, capital city of Fujian, is removing home-purchasing curbs in 5 districts to boost housing demand, Fuzhou Evening News reports on Monday citing a notice from the local housing authority.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/Nw723ab3ax

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | Country Garden Rallies as Yuan Bond-Extension Votes Tallied – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UwvHOjFOwr pic.twitter.com/Bm0gL3YTGj

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

Country Garden jumped by 8% after the extension plan was approved by debtholders.#China #CountryGarden https://t.co/chWoLGkfI4 pic.twitter.com/vReIroQ8Ax

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | Securities Times noted rare occasion #PBOC announced August credit data during midday rather than market close, highlighting authorities acted timely to prevent risk of unilateral overshooting.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/0soRIRZwgL

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China’s central bank may consider cutting reserve requirement ratio for commercial lenders in the fourth quarter of this year to stabilize liquidity and credit, according to a front-page report in Securities Daily, citing analysts.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/O1wHCLuZe8

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

⚡PBOC conducts 209 billion yuan of the 7-day reverse repo on Tuesday. A total of 195 billion yuan will be drained from the market as 14 billion yuan comes due today. #China #liquidity https://t.co/AzN87TjX4s

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 12, 2023

🇯🇵 #Japan | Nikkei's QUICK survey of 201 institutional investors found the proportion citing interest rates as their main focus rose to 21% in September from 18% in the previous month, marking the highest since 23% in March.
*Link (Japanese): https://t.co/L2ZqQcvbmu

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China to tighten scrutiny of LGFVs as Beijing addresses government debt woes – sources – Reutershttps://t.co/U01qEffYMs

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China Returns to Buy Winter #Gas Supply in Risk to Global Balance – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZuK4j1IBWy

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

LATEST: The luxury armored train carrying North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has apparently crossed into Russia ahead of a summit with President Vladimir Putin https://t.co/hTiQnNBvaX

— Bloomberg (@business) September 12, 2023

(URGENT) Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup seems to have expressed willingness to resign: source https://t.co/XFbRfapO7x

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) September 12, 2023

New Zealand’s main opposition National Party is on course to win the October election, according to the latest opinion poll https://t.co/Azyu2m1mV1

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 11, 2023

🇪🇺 Hedge Funds Turn Most Bearish on #Euro Since January Ahead of #ECB – Bloomberghttps://t.co/DzjNeYXxg6 pic.twitter.com/kXNW9o91vw

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 11, 2023

UK wage growth held at a record high in the three months through July, a sign of persistent inflation that will keep pressure on the BOE to raise interest rates again https://t.co/Azv2SmPkEu

— Bloomberg (@business) September 12, 2023

Headline indicators for the UK labour market for May to July 2023 show:

▪️ employment was 75.5%
▪️ unemployment was 4.3%
▪️ economic inactivity was 21.1%

➡️ https://t.co/aaVxfzo00f pic.twitter.com/MDvFPLMccd

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 12, 2023

Britain’s grocery price inflation eases slightly lower https://t.co/QVsjblD4Ep via @KatieLinsell pic.twitter.com/NqgEqF2wv8

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 12, 2023

🇩🇪 #GERMANY SEPT. ZEW INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS -11.4; EST. -15.0 – BBG
*GERMANY SEPT. ZEW CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX -79.4; EST. -75.5

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

Norway economy keeps growing in contrast with central bank view https://t.co/Sr0Asmbbmi via @ottummelas pic.twitter.com/DhAhmQy6Qu

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 12, 2023

BoE's Mann: Best To Err On Side Of Further Tightening
– Overtightening Is Easier To Rectify Than Not Moving
– Holding Rates Risks Inflation Becoming Embedded
– Neutral Interest Rate Likely Higher Than In Past

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 11, 2023

Bank of England policy maker Mann signals support for further rate hikes https://t.co/cS8dKTQ142 via @tomelleryrees @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/fbX1JopQrJ

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 11, 2023

France to tax excess profits of toll road operators in 2024 https://t.co/u3s1VFMapL via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/f0GA0Psd4j

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 12, 2023

🇪🇺 #Europe’s Weak #Gas Demand Signals Industrial Malaise Taking Hold – Bloomberghttps://t.co/NAdrYBBtzt pic.twitter.com/j8dh42uqzo

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023

‘Strong Case’ For Tough New Action Against China, Says Senior UK Minister – @FThttps://t.co/MGqUfh320j

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 11, 2023

New EU tech rules could become a blueprint for other countries and have brought prominence to CEO-turned-commissioner Thierry Breton https://t.co/JEo5lBRXhp pic.twitter.com/XC58X7eidy

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 12, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1700904484887572889

Global oil inventories are now at their lowest levels since @Kpler data begins (2017), and we believe will end 2023/2024 at a ~378MM/750MM Bbl deficit relative to a 2017-2019 baseline average. This would strongly suggest a higher oil price, yet at the current price many stocks… pic.twitter.com/zHcCVRfiKd

— Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) September 11, 2023

🌎 #Crypto #Volatility Picks Up on Looming Sales From FTX’s $3.4 Billion Token Hoard – Bloomberghttps://t.co/CltWKIQUp6 pic.twitter.com/DcxQnYaISO

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023