M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: U.S. and China Hail Constructive Talks; South Korea’s Early Exports Rise to Record; French Debt Concerns Mount; Germany’s Merz Admits ‘Disaster’ in State Elections

21 September, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

✨ Très heureux de participer au petit déjeuner « Made in – Repenser la chaîne de valeur du packaging de luxe », qui se tiendra le 29 septembre au Grimaldi Forum à l’occasion de LUXEPACK #Monaco 🇲🇨.

🗣️ Organisée par Formes de Luxe, cette matinée-débat posera deux questions… pic.twitter.com/9BUlTcHyqN

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2026

Americas

Markets

SpaceX will make up 2.82% of the Nasdaq 100 when the index’s quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday, according to data obtained by Bloomberg, locking in a sharp increase from its current weighting https://t.co/jA28JLHOuB

— Bloomberg (@business) September 19, 2026

Goldman (via ZeroHedge): Our Panic Index, which is an indicator that  looks at 1-month S&P implied volatility, VIX volatility, S&P 1m put-call skew, and the S&P term structure slope (1m vs. 3m), is at 5.7/10 which is in the 66th percentile on a 1y lookback – and well above the… pic.twitter.com/irWu1842Yk

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 19, 2026

🇺🇸 Wall Street expects US to issue about $1tn of short-term debt as borrowing costs climb – Financial Timeshttps://t.co/CUKtFASyIG pic.twitter.com/OM0F2H4nyY

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

*Focus on AI

Hyperscaler debt issuance 2027 https://t.co/m5dFtc41oT pic.twitter.com/hg4UspLjMn

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 19, 2026

We breakdown every IG, HY and LL cusip issued in the AI sector YTD https://t.co/9dOi0APLQJ pic.twitter.com/7n2OCbnibf

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2026

🇺🇸 Big #Tech uses guarantees to keep $300bn AI exposure off balance sheets – Financial Timeshttps://t.co/IIRiDVfXaR

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

🚨 THE AI BUBBLE IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A GAME OF MUSICAL CHAIRS:

The AI ecosystem is becoming increasingly interconnected, with a huge share of revenue at major companies now dependent on spending from a small group of AI players.

Applied Digital, $APLD, has the highest… pic.twitter.com/W83NDWSUNh

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 20, 2026

🇺🇸 #Oracle’s $18bn data centre debt under strain amid local pushback – FThttps://t.co/iA8TkbuVMX

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 20, 2026

Oracle Loans Backing Massive New Mexico Data Center Tumble To Stressed Levels https://t.co/vDvPzax0jf

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 21, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Aug: -0.04 (est -0.04; prev -0.08; prev R 0.08)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2026

🇺🇸 US Diesel Tops $6.50 a Gallon as Wars Worsen Global Crunch – Bloomberghttps://t.co/neosRuD6iw

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q3: 2.33% (prev 2.26%)
– GDP Nowcast Q4: 2.60% (prev 2.51%)https://t.co/MxDoQwkT8h pic.twitter.com/N1KykneqZi

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2026

The rate of U.S. SPR drawdowns has reversed since June

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now ~43 mmb above the 252-million-barrel statutory floor for limited drawdowns pic.twitter.com/latg5jIdQa

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) September 19, 2026

Personal Savings Rate hits 2.6%, the 2nd lowest level in the last 65 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/6U52lAe4OX

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 20, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇺🇸 #Fed’s Kashkari Says Inflation Reaching All Corners of US Economy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4uueizGi90

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

Kansas City Fed President Schmid who is not a voter this year, but will be next year continued his hawkish rhetoric Friday in a speech mostly devoted to payments (link below).

He reaffirmed the committee's belief that "outside of inflation, the economy is performing well."… https://t.co/4ckvT87W1j pic.twitter.com/MFH1oZccSU

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 20, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US and China Hail Constructive Talks on AI, Trade Before Summit – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UdXsT2IcDl

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US, China Trade Teams Set to Huddle in New York on AI, Iran – Bloomberghttps://t.co/tXM1vBTfqt pic.twitter.com/bUZZdkNYDF

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 20, 2026

China’s 15% tariff on US LNG last year killed the trade between the biggest buyer and seller. If the two countries can agree to scrap that duty this week, a spate of new deals could be on the way, writes @SStapczynki https://t.co/Ujwb0ceecc

— Bloomberg (@business) September 21, 2026

A group of retired military commanders and leading business executives are calling on Congress to keep Chinese connected vehicle technologies from entering the US https://t.co/45lYY72I2T

— Bloomberg (@business) September 17, 2026

BREAKING: Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law. pic.twitter.com/2m5zr5TbdD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 18, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is “wrong” when he said that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years https://t.co/p9iC4Idz8l

— Bloomberg (@business) September 20, 2026

Full Write-up : https://t.co/hCOKmnmZ8U https://t.co/W72KvsM8tF

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 19, 2026

Trump Tells @NewsNation ‘We’ll See’ On Whether To ‘Annihilate’ Iranhttps://t.co/zIEBSvewf6

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2026

Middle East: Due to tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation. Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise heightened vigilance and be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures,… pic.twitter.com/TPj23kFFzo

— TravelGov (@TravelGov) September 19, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇯🇵 Hedge Funds Turned Bullish on #Yen for First Time Since Mid-2025 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4TQx4MftuJ pic.twitter.com/XLayVWwEKf

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

Huawei debuts 11 AI-related chips in challenge to Nvidia, Intel, AMD https://t.co/rx6h4R3k5H

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 17, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇰🇷 #SouthKorea’s Early Exports Rise to Record as Chip Boom Extends – Bloomberghttps://t.co/dQ83Usvo4s pic.twitter.com/5sW0MVk0WX

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

"Chinese custom figures for August is out. China imported 141.7 tons gold, 7.2 tons more than July. Still keeps quite high levels."

ht @BruceIkeGold pic.twitter.com/8xpiFl1kFC

— Ronnie Stoeferle (@RonStoeferle) September 20, 2026

🇨🇳China's grain industry seen topping 4.5 trillion yuan annual industrial output in 15th Five-Year period
At a State Council Information Office briefing on the 15th Five-Year period, an official from the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said China will deepen a… pic.twitter.com/0j4guBZsrw

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 21, 2026

Housing

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/2101878571815915594

Monetary Policy

China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged for 16th month in September https://t.co/dy0NE7h5wH https://t.co/dy0NE7h5wH

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) September 20, 2026

BoJ Conducts Rate Check As Yen Surges – @nikkei https://t.co/HRWcwO51Q5

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2026

Prime Minister Takaichi And Governor Ueda Did Not Meet Ahead Of The BOJ's Rate Hike – @nikkei

After The "Honebuto Shock," A Senior BOJ Official Said: "The (Administration's) Way Of Thinking — Flatly Ruling Out A Rate Hike — Has Changed." But The Mismatched Picture Of A… https://t.co/un6RHqZ2Zj

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 20, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇨🇳 #China’s Fiscal Pullback Extends to August as Spending Slumps – Bloomberghttps://t.co/2UBW31kQId pic.twitter.com/URMAZ9znFi

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 20, 2026

🇨🇳China ministries unveil measures to boost RV consumption
China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the CHINA STATE PLANNER, together with eight other ministries, issued measures to promote recreational vehicle (RV) consumption, streamlining RV registration, scrappage and…

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 18, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China’s leader Xi Jinping will arrive in Washington this week with at least one easy option to score points with the Trump administration — a commitment to revive a $6 billion-a-year trade in US liquefied natural gas https://t.co/LrMwYFmz2Q

— Bloomberg (@business) September 21, 2026

Europe

Economic Indicators and Prospects

German economy to gain momentum toward year-end, Bundesbank says https://t.co/1JVFG3CbKI pic.twitter.com/1Vv73lo3GB

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 21, 2026

Bundesbank: German Inflation To Stay High On Energy, Healthcare
– Sees German Economy Growing Slightly In Q3, Recovering In Q4

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2026

Housing

UK Rightmove House Prices (M/M) Sep: 0.7% (prev -2.0%)

– House Prices (Y/Y): -0.8% (prev -1.0%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 20, 2026

Monetary Policy

BoE, Fed Step Up Bank Scrutiny After Jane Street Losses – FThttps://t.co/rvA8QY4qif

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 21, 2026

Norway survey backs a September rate hike on stable economy https://t.co/wqUxdWdmGK via @ottummelas pic.twitter.com/8hRB7t51S6

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 19, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇫🇷 #France Downgraded by Scope as Political and Debt Concerns Mount – Bloomberg
➡ Scope Ratings downgraded France's credit score to A+ from AA- due to a sustained deterioration in the fiscal outlook.
➡ DBRS moved its outlook on France's AA rating to negative from stable, citing… pic.twitter.com/PF0ehQEjtV

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 19, 2026

EU executive challenged over fiscal control of Italy and France https://t.co/g0ehelcPPc via @europressos pic.twitter.com/oPhLElWkWp

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 21, 2026

Morningstar DBRS Changes Trends On France To Negative, Confirms Credit Ratings At AAhttps://t.co/Gph4isvnS5

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2026

Greece has now reached its highest credit rating since the debt crisis pic.twitter.com/dI9Npvznvl

— Sofokleous Street (@SofokleousSt) September 20, 2026

OECD chief Mathias Cormann urges nations to fix public finances amid a global bond selloff that sent 10-year US Treasury yields to the highest since 2007 https://t.co/3zEpoDeHvi via @CraigStirling @bbenrath pic.twitter.com/zjmuN0DIsn

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 20, 2026

UK considers lowering mansion tax threshold, report says https://t.co/ScxurwXoN0 via @harrynwilson pic.twitter.com/kz9YXs0h8u

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 19, 2026

Energy

Europe and China are running out of diesel. And diesel is everything in the economy.

It is not just a price but a supply issue.

Eliminating European refining capacity and bombing refineries—not such a great idea, was it? pic.twitter.com/PeQCKDjNIm

— Daniel Lacalle Official Account (@dlacalle_IA) September 20, 2026

Trump: "Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine. A large number of their Diesel refineries have been blown up and are, at least temporarily, out of commission" pic.twitter.com/z2mYBweC4g

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 21, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇩🇪 Merz’s Conservatives Crash Out of German State Parliament – Bloomberghttps://t.co/9IWQneQ4Rz pic.twitter.com/zczuW9IgoV

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 21, 2026

Germany’s far right won its second regional election in a row in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania today, according to exit polls.https://t.co/w5QgGX7gmN

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 20, 2026

Dutch police break up violent far-right protest in The Hague https://t.co/6HHq6qRigJ via @patrickreports pic.twitter.com/tlWNCWS9JO

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 19, 2026

The Liberal Democrats fight for a breakthrough in Britain’s fractured politics https://t.co/9rKuUMrAG1 via @Joe_Mayes pic.twitter.com/jDuMf8e4yR

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 20, 2026

NATO is ready to respond to a potential Russian escalation on Europe’s eastern flank, the alliance's top general Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone said today, amid growing warnings of a possible staged attack by Moscow. https://t.co/OCRbLr0t6K

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 19, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 39 (2026) ⚠

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Talks
🌎 UN General Assembly
🇩🇪 German State Elections' Results
🌎 #OECD Economic Outlook
🌎 Central Banks' Rate Decisions
🌎 Global Flash PMIs
…https://t.co/lvkX9f4rTW

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 20, 2026

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w38 (2026) ⚠

*HT @biancoresearch, @Barchart, @zerohedge#Bonds #AI #PrivateDebt #Trade #China #Francehttps://t.co/IH0oUqEo9R

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 19, 2026