M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: Trump-Xi Summit: No Deal, But a Fragile Truce; U.S.-Iran Seek Phased Hormuz Deal; Rhine Sinks to Record Low in Blow for Shipping

25 September, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

“.. 10-year yields have been higher for 7-months in a row, inclusive of September, tied for the longest streak in 50 years.”

– Jefferies desk pic.twitter.com/Z0g2vrogs5

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 24, 2026

Another Day of S&P 500 Losses Saved By Iran Deal Headline

Rumors of a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz lifted stocks out of the red, but another rise in yields and oil prices kept them from making any further gains.https://t.co/Zp5VtXpM84 pic.twitter.com/0BkAPWCfKB

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 25, 2026

Bitcoin working on a retest of its breakout? https://t.co/GXwwevhcjC pic.twitter.com/5eoDs14FqH

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 25, 2026

Costco Posts Strong Quarterly Profit On Tariff Refunds – BBGhttps://t.co/hOCzZvs4oa

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

🇺🇸 PepsiCo to Raise Some Prices After Cuts Failed to Grow Sales – Bloomberghttps://t.co/WZf1rRmM0P

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

*Focus on AI

GS: Hyperscaler valuations have de-rated to the lowest level in 10 years pic.twitter.com/cFj7Fcnnzm

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 25, 2026

🔴US Big Tech credit spreads are blowing out:

Hyperscaler 5-year CDS spreads have surged to new all-time wides, led by Oracle, $ORCL, SpaceX, $SPCX, Nvidia, $NVDA, and Meta, $META.

Oracle’s 5-year CDS surged above 220 basis points, surpassing its previous peak during the 2008… pic.twitter.com/rGk7d4iBoj

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 24, 2026

ORCL's "investment grade" bond closed at 8.10%, in line with B3/B-

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 24, 2026

White House Asks OpenAI And Anthropic To Hold New Models From UK Testers Until US Review – @politico https://t.co/zMCU1f04aL

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

US Initial Jobless Claims Sep 19: 197K (est 200K; prev 196K; prev R 198K)
– Continuing Claims Sep 12: 1.719M (est 1.740M; prev 1.730M; prev R 1.1717K)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

US Current Account Balance (USD) Q1: -246.0B (est -257.4B; prev -226.8B; prev R -212.6B)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

WSJ: Since the Houthi's imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea shipments (exacerbated by attacks on the East-West pipeline), global tanker rates have soared.https://t.co/dv32iXRK6f pic.twitter.com/Ona7owtbi6

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 24, 2026

Canada Retail Sales (M/M) Jul: -0.7% (est -0.8%; prev 0.6%)
– Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M): -0.7% (est -0.5%; prev 0.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Canada Payroll Employment Change – SEPH Jul: 26.1K (prev 4.8K)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

#Mexico Inflation accelerated in early September, driven by tomatoes, onions, LP gas and primary education due to the start of the school year;
Declines were recorded in professional services, potatoes, tequila, and hair products#USDMXN pic.twitter.com/G2SnFP2v5G

— Traders Community (@TradersCom) September 24, 2026

Housing

US New Home Sales Aug: 684K (est 616K; prev 607K; prev R 643K)
– New Home Sales (M/M): 6.4% (est 1.3%; prev -10.5%; prev R -4.3%)
– Median Sale Price (USD): 393.7K or -5.8% From August 2025 (prev 393.8K or -0.9% From July 2025)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Jump as Average Prices See Record Drop

August new home sales beat every forecast on a shift to lower priced homes. The average new home price fell $47,700 in a single month, the largest dollar drop on record.https://t.co/nbZgi9pGe3 https://t.co/fobYkeeBXf pic.twitter.com/sy9YyVfypA

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 24, 2026

JUST IN 🚨: 30-Year Mortgage Rate soars to 7.45%, the highest level since April 2024 📈 🏡 pic.twitter.com/ZWsOkk4QZX

— Barchart (@Barchart) September 24, 2026

US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 24-Sept Wk: 7.03% (prev 6.95%)
– 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.42% (prev 6.26%)https://t.co/mWbHuzkgvC pic.twitter.com/fVIyUNiO5w

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said additional interest rate increases may be needed to ensure inflation returns to the central bank’s 2% goal https://t.co/GGIyL7GyLL

— Bloomberg (@business) September 24, 2026

There may be no bigger indication of the shift in the Fed's thinking this year than Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (#FOMC voter this year) who coming into the year was looking for multiple rate cuts but in a speech today at the bank's 10th Annual Fintech Conference… https://t.co/kt8E4oynGk pic.twitter.com/XHrweM3EbB

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) September 24, 2026

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was among the attendees at the White House state dinner on Thursday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (Photo credit: Alex Brandon/AP) https://t.co/2ZIq9M2bxd pic.twitter.com/Ju4uLoP2SE

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 25, 2026

Fed Unveils More Stablecoin Plans As Regulators Embrace Crypto – BBGhttps://t.co/7WIP0t4HuP

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Banxico Leaves Overnight Rate Unchanged At 6.50%, As Expected

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Fiscal Policy

US Treasury Accepts $4.08 Bln Of Offers For Buybackhttps://t.co/i3sI1PBBJk pic.twitter.com/GNgkFefFzg

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Summit Goes Big on Pomp But Small on Substance – Bloomberghttps://t.co/zqrGO0je6N

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

China President Xi: We Encourage Exchanges On Diplomacy, Trade And Economy, Law Enforcement
– Should Work Together In Good Faith; Broad Space For Cooperation
– Welcomes US Companies To Invest In China

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Trump Considers Allowing Chinese EV Production In US Amid Xi Talks – NBChttps://t.co/1OiV1b2QUs

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Trump, Johnson And Tech CEOs To Hold AI Meeting On Sep 29 – Axioshttps://t.co/arhJEd0NAT

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

🇺🇸 Senate GOP eyes data center vote next week – Politicohttps://t.co/bjCvBV5fU7

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say https://t.co/bjQqysXMVr https://t.co/bjQqysXMVr

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 24, 2026

Pezeshkian: What we are negotiating about is our right within the framework of international law, and we have never asked for anything more than that. On this basis, we are seeking an agreement. https://t.co/icAlel4LzC

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Yemeni Forces Say They Struck Sensitive Target In Riyadh, Aramco In Yanbu – Telegramhttps://t.co/oqw4J1so5c

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Israeli Official Says Chance Of US-Iran Deal Is Small – JPosthttps://t.co/73tZNspe0Y

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

Japanese government bond yields hit new high as global sell-off continues https://t.co/k96m0FK3hM

— Financial Times (@FT) September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs expects the yen to appreciate to 150 per dollar over the next 12 months, reversing a bearish stance adopted in July as domestic policy shifts and potential capital repatriation strengthen the currency’s outlook. https://t.co/pWVNljCDC2

— Bloomberg (@business) September 25, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Growth minister says Japan has exited reflationary phase https://t.co/ftj8f0xGB4

— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) September 25, 2026

🇹🇭 Thai Exports Surge Most in Four Years on AI, China Demand – Bloomberghttps://t.co/GuJQEgu6Xq

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

🇨🇳🌎 China’s Global EV Exports Rise 33% Y/y to 284,622 in August – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3s002vNY0T pic.twitter.com/M85JbNm59J

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

China’s oil imports from Iran are collapsing:

China imported ~6.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in the first 20 days of September, near its lowest level in 10 years.

This is well below the ~10.5 million barrels per day China imported on average before the Iran War.

At… pic.twitter.com/2gyW4jdFny

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 24, 2026

Housing

🇨🇳Beijing allows developer deposit contracts after construction permit; deposits generally capped at 1%
Beijing municipal authorities issued implementation opinions on implementing the Notice on improving the commodity housing sales system, effective Aug. 28, 2026. From that date… pic.twitter.com/9wdxXzDN2y

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 24, 2026

Monetary Policy

Japan’s Katayama Says Trump Shared Yen Concerns With Takaichi – BBGhttps://t.co/Q2FlKgGkvW

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 25, 2026

BOJ could raise rates every quarter, ex-policymaker says https://t.co/g0P1VmIYMM

— KeySignals (@KeySignals) September 24, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Japan struggles to find way to fund Takaichi budget with no new deficit bondshttps://t.co/QYrSsymBUi

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 25, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China President Xi: China Supports US, Iran In Returning To Islamabad MOU – Xinhua

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

India, the world’s second-largest exporter of seaborne diesel this year, has no plans to follow suit if the US imposes a ban on overseas sales to ease a price spike at the pump https://t.co/jW9LSnXTzh

— Bloomberg (@business) September 24, 2026

China's fuel inventories hit over decade lows, raising concerns over comeback of export curbs https://t.co/Jl2D8S76Bc https://t.co/Jl2D8S76Bc

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 24, 2026

Europe

Markets

BREAKING: France 10-year yield hits an 18-year high. pic.twitter.com/9Sj6qLlVCI

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) September 24, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Belgium was the top importer of Chinese EVs last month after vehicle shipments to the country jumped 76% y/y to 32,538, according to data from China Customs. https://t.co/wR6zlKJfx4

— Bloomberg (@business) September 25, 2026

🇩🇪 #Germany | Rhine Sinks to Record Low in Further Blow for Shipping – Bloomberghttps://t.co/RD2vhlhjdc pic.twitter.com/ea3cLNjHbJ

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 25, 2026

UK food exports slump as US tariffs hit products like salmon https://t.co/vjBAX9el4u via @DeutschJill pic.twitter.com/FssVjjE1dA

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 25, 2026

UK GfK Consumer Confidence Sept: -13 (est -16; prev -14)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

More than 90% of Greenland’s exports are fish. The island's businesses want to see the US defense deal change that https://t.co/c6fUUrhvYp pic.twitter.com/SGJEL3FNDI

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 25, 2026

Monetary Policy

ECB’s Schnabel says energy shock is ‘much more persistent’ https://t.co/XBQxVRO3NM via @chiaraalbanese pic.twitter.com/TNhXeVJEyE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Lagarde succession race at the ECB is heating up as Schnabel exits https://t.co/Qma0VnlAV2 via @weberalexander @CraigStirling pic.twitter.com/kWHw95Gel7

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 25, 2026

MUTLIPLE REPORTS ECB’s Schnabel Is Set To Leave ECB Board Early For Senior Job At IMF, Announcement Imminent

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 24, 2026

Top hawk Isabel Schnabel will leave the ECB early to join the IMF — becoming the latest German Executive Board member not to serve out their full term https://t.co/6xIbVtBZD8 pic.twitter.com/PnvldGtlpa

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Klaas Knot would be a perfect fit as ECB president for many nations, Dutch prime minister says https://t.co/n03LfeATHJ via @davidgura @patrickreports pic.twitter.com/3tBFLRavrF

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Two BOE deputies signal they are moving toward raising rates https://t.co/IyxNTNq0A1 via @irinaanghel12 @PhilAldrick @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/SjigLYxH1D

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Lombardelli says BOE hikes more likely if energy costs stay high https://t.co/IyxNTNq0A1 via @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/pNEu5D3uxl

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Russia raises taxes to fund its war in Ukraine https://t.co/cYU5u28JUh

— Financial Times (@FT) September 24, 2026

Energy

Germany maps exit from fossil fuels as energy crises take toll https://t.co/V8YZh00EQo via @LauraMillanL pic.twitter.com/b8wmBHRA5h

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Macron urges EU to relax diesel rules to ease supply crisis https://t.co/eQHHYDExcZ via @johnainger @SamyAdghirni pic.twitter.com/Z1hcgkMCYI

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Spain aims to bridge Franco-German divide over ‘Made in Europe’ https://t.co/qzNV6ufKdm via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/mJN4qVjMqm

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 24, 2026

FT Exclusive: Billions of dollars of Rosneft’s foreign earnings were funnelled through a Kremlin-backed money laundering network, putting the state oil group at the heart of Russia’s efforts to circumvent sanctions and supply its war in Ukraine. https://t.co/fEqTIs8WYN pic.twitter.com/KikhnB3Hin

— Financial Times (@FT) September 23, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 39 (2026) ⚠

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Talks
🌎 UN General Assembly
🇩🇪 German State Elections' Results
🌎 #OECD Economic Outlook
🌎 Central Banks' Rate Decisions
🌎 Global Flash PMIs
…https://t.co/lvkX9f4rTW

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) September 20, 2026