Morning Brief: Scholz, Macron, Draghi Will Visit Kyiv, BOE Meeting, EU Gas Prices Rise Again
Americas
Markets
Hedge funds have sold a lot of equities pic.twitter.com/g1t0bDWmt2
— The Long View ✪ (@HayekAndKeynes) June 15, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Demand destruction is already happening.
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) June 15, 2022
via Morgan Stanley. pic.twitter.com/FcXT3ufxcW
Retail sales fell .3% in May as higher prices forced consumers to pay more and buy less. YoY May import prices jumped 11.7% while American made goods prices surged 18.9%. The June Empire State Mfg. Index is minus 1.2. More evidence that #inflation has already caused a #recession.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 15, 2022
Housing
Investor home purchases slump 17% from pandemic peak as interest rates rise. Still, investors bought a record 20% of homes sold in metros tracked by Redfin as they continued growing their market share. https://t.co/8nIGysY72W
— Taylor Marr (@TaylorAMarr) June 15, 2022
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 67 in June; "Traffic of prospective buyers" Falls below Breakeven https://t.co/X0PsrqfpmD
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) June 15, 2022
This survey was before the recent surge in mortgage rates, and "traffic of prospective buyers" is now below breakeven (below 50). pic.twitter.com/fT97rmsKFk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey https://t.co/t9F2WgleQf
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) June 15, 2022
This was post-holiday adjusted and before the recent surge in mortgage rates pic.twitter.com/GzY4pplmWo
Monetary Policy
FOMC Projections and Press Conference https://t.co/CfW2bv5zcO
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) June 15, 2022
The forecasted increased in the unemployment rate is a little surprising.
Projections:https://t.co/uFMocf1LDL
Press:https://t.co/k0qOIq3NZNhttps://t.co/IKE3fjDx6Y
Politics
With its letter today to oil refining executives, the White House seems to have waken up to what most in the oil market have seen for several weeks — a lack of refining capacity is inflating fuel prices | #OOTT @opinion https://t.co/mMOBAWXIUJ
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 15, 2022
White House Press Secretary calls on US oil refiners to lower gasoline prices: “We see it as a patriotic duty […] We are calling on them to do the right thing” #OOTT pic.twitter.com/RYDRDAog0e
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 15, 2022
U.S. REFINERS respond to president’s criticism about margins and domestic capacity closures: https://t.co/LbPgXZF7kq pic.twitter.com/MJV3pinWp3
— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) June 16, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
#OOTT | US Fears Surge In Crude Prices From Ban On Insuring Russian Oil Tankers – FT https://t.co/PcftBZKk5G
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 16, 2022
Asia
Covid-19
Shanghai will conduct mass testing to detect Covid-19 cases as authorities remain wary of new infection chains https://t.co/PzUpGe8Ymc
— Bloomberg (@business) June 15, 2022
Top Hong Kong officials will only do a 3-day hotel quarantine ahead of the city’s July 1 celebrations, according to the South China Morning Post, casting fresh doubt over President Xi Jinping’s attendance https://t.co/rxxZjMQJDA
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) June 16, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
New Zealand Economy Surprisingly Contracts as Covid Spread https://t.co/MsrCLnXkwp
— Brendon Miszka (@BrendonMiszka) June 16, 2022
Housing
China's May new home prices fell 0.17% m/m, declined slower than in April.#Beijing +5.9% y/y(+5.8%), +0.4% m/m#Shanghai +3.4% y/y(+3.8%), +0.0% m/m#Shenzhen +3.9% y/y(+3.9%), +0.5% m/m#Guangzhou +3.9% y/y(+3.9%), +0.5% m/m#China #Properties #realestate
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 16, 2022
Monetary Policy
#PBOC raises the $CNY Central Parity Rate by 419 pips to 6.7099 against US Dollar, the most since the end-May.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 16, 2022
The onshore yuan rebounded yesterday.#China #forex pic.twitter.com/4bBwIKlOU3
Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno comments on the BOJ meeting this weekhttps://t.co/Obs7h3Zdaa
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) June 16, 2022
Fiscal Policy
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
China To Set Up Centralised Iron Ore Buyer To Counter Australia’s Dominance – FT https://t.co/PKY4xVyUmu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 16, 2022
Regulation
#China's NPC standing committee will review the second draft revision of #antitrust law on June 21-24.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 16, 2022
The second draft aims to clarify the scope of application on the platform economy. pic.twitter.com/s1GSSxImCf
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Sharp Rise In Early Retirements Drives Contraction Of UK Workforce – FT https://t.co/WWvganmVd6
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 15, 2022
Swedish property price expectations tumble the most since the pandemic https://t.co/BEQsgvXLJZ pic.twitter.com/U5o4QCpVr9
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) June 16, 2022
Monetary Policy
Deutsche Bank economists say the European Central Bank’s pledge to create a tool to curb market stress in the euro area will also allow it to raise interest rates faster than previously expected https://t.co/Pi2bVu4uJS
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) June 16, 2022
SNB and BOE the highlights of European tradinghttps://t.co/XRsWeYZ9Zp
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) June 16, 2022
It's BOE rate decision day — here's what to expect https://t.co/dnsxWJ6Tq3
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) June 16, 2022
Energy
European natural gas benchmark price up >40% over the last 48 hours. But sure, all was good for summer and we had too much gas. The Kremlin is in full control. And they are loving it | #ONGT https://t.co/GYPQOS2SWN
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 15, 2022
16-Jun-22: NordStream1 #natgas flows dip lower at the open of gasday-16, broadly inline with #Gazprom’s new stated volume of 67mcm/d. Onward NEL flows in particular being crushed. No increase via Ukraine. Eni says Italy noms for gasday-16 ‘partially confirmed’. #TTF #ONGT pic.twitter.com/EdzvjvB4k8
— Tom Marzec-Manser (@tmarzecmanser) June 16, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The European leaders are planning to visit Ukraine on Thursday for talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, sources say https://t.co/YR7IL4xQjS
— Bloomberg (@business) June 15, 2022
What a picture – train to Ukraine pic.twitter.com/NoW4yGRSN1
— Maria Tadeo (@mariatad) June 16, 2022
Putin and Russia are intent on using the threat of global hunger as a bargaining tool in any future peace talks with Ukraine, according to one source https://t.co/oGC2mJdg0t
— Bloomberg (@business) June 15, 2022
The extent of the damage to one of the biggest agricultural complexes in Ukraine earlier this month was confirmed by satellite images https://t.co/LkZc9KLFIK
— Bloomberg (@business) June 16, 2022
Turkey rejects Nato offer of trilateral talks with Sweden and Finland.#Turkey #Sweden #Finland #NATOhttps://t.co/L43umf0pMc
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 15, 2022
UK Lawmakers Urge Caution With Post-Brexit Financial Reform – RTRS https://t.co/9tu4iZdg3a
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) June 15, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 24 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) June 13, 2022
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇯🇵 🇨🇭 #Fed, #BOE, #BOJ, #SNB Meetings
🇪🇺 #ECB Speakers
🇺🇸 U.S. Data
🇺🇸 June Op-Ex
…https://t.co/OiaE5GhKXB