Morning Brief: Russia Captured Mariupol, Traders Price 3 ECB Quarter-Point Rate Hikes By Dec-2022
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Higher air fares have prompted U.S. consumers to pull back on summer travel plans https://t.co/LHldsGKTRO
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 21, 2022
BofA's Ralph Axel going all in on 10yr US Treasuries: "Within a few months, we expect the focus to shift from inflation to recession concern as the Fed orchestrates a landing." pic.twitter.com/0FSwi08Znd
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) April 20, 2022
Housing
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.77 million SAAR in March https://t.co/N0IPiFMtjM pic.twitter.com/CHra4Q7EUe
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 20, 2022
Here is a graph. Just getting inventory up YoY (that will happen soon) will still be a long way from normal levels of inventory. pic.twitter.com/tVLmzTlRVD
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 20, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 #Fed Says High #Inflation, Geopolitics Are Clouding Outlook – Bloomberghttps://t.co/vjQGOZpHcK
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook: https://t.co/SBVXIf61Su pic.twitter.com/Sa3xd4V9lN
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) April 20, 2022
“We are now at the point where rate-hike expectations on both sides of the Atlantic are starting to be overdone” https://t.co/qHlWesUSMj
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 20, 2022
Fed's Daly: Case For 50Bps Rate Hike In May Is Now 'Complete'
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 20, 2022
– Can Make Announcement On Reducing B/Sheet As Early As May
– Since Meeting In March, Have Seen New Evidence Indicating Economic Expansion Is Self-Sustaining
Odds of a second 50-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Canada’s meeting in June hit 100% after inflation blows past expectations https://t.co/cy64gVrDaI
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 21, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Asia
Covid-19
Xi Jinping urges greater coordination of global efforts to fight the pandemic, and says China will continue its commitment to open up to the world, despite his current Covid Zero policies https://t.co/o9hSmCtgDN
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 21, 2022
Economic Indicators and Pospects
Average wholesales volume of passenger vehicles in #China was 24,000 units per day in the first two weeks of April, plunging 44% from a year earlier and sliding 48% from the same period in March, said the China Passenger Car Association.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/L35dXtRJlQ
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) April 21, 2022
Nomura Holdings Inc. downgraded its full-year #GDP growth forecast for #China to 3.9% from 4.3%, 2Q to 1.8% from 3.4%, citing a worsening economic outlook and disruptions due to the country’s Covid Zero strategy. 1/2
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 21, 2022
Nomura cuts its forecast for China’s economic growth rate to 3.9% as the country’s insistence on sticking with Covid Zero disrupts the economy more severely than monetary policy can provide support https://t.co/SRulexsJyz
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 21, 2022
🇳🇿 #NewZealand #Inflation Accelerates to Fastest in 32 Years – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/Rndx9WGL8y pic.twitter.com/j1CLsd90zn
Monetary Policy
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong highlights rapidly rising private and public debt and an aging population as threats to South Korea’s economic outlook https://t.co/7A5pR6cJyW
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 21, 2022
🇨🇳 Chinese banks are still likely to lower loan prime rates in 2Q after leaving it unchanged this month, #China Securities Journal reports, citing analysts.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/7mjztQjPjK
Fiscal Policy
🇨🇳 #China has instructed local governments to issue most of 3.65t yuan of special bonds planned for the whole of 2022 by end-June, and the rest by end-Sept., China Business News reported Tuesday.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/5yXE8uJEIH
🇨🇳 #CHINA MOFCOM SPOKESMAN GAO FENG SAYS AT PRESS CONFERENCE – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
*CHINA TO ROLL OUT POLICY MEASURES TO STIMULATE CONSUMPTION: GAO
🇯🇵 #Japan gov't weighs cash handouts for low-income families' children – Kyodohttps://t.co/gakrpc0UUO
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
China has confirmed that it signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands. pic.twitter.com/3QUBpt1z1j
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) April 21, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
In April 2022, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly bounced backhttps://t.co/8PBf89iB4g
— INSEE (@InseeFr_News) April 21, 2022
Euro area annual #inflation up to 7.4% in March https://t.co/vUlSPGckq4 pic.twitter.com/B0RHufUgpK
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) April 21, 2022
Monetary Policy
ECB’s Guindos Sees QE Ending In July, Paving Way For Rate Hike – BBG https://t.co/bmnFHRZz4I
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 21, 2022
* ECB UPDATE *
— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) April 21, 2022
ECB Wunsch : ECB Rate at Zero or More by Year End ‘No Brainer’ … BBGhttps://t.co/LVSICVNAWN
ECB de Guindos backs ending bond buys in July … RTRShttps://t.co/8NrzNfC8xX
Traders Bet ECB Will Lift Rate Above Zero By Year-End … BBGhttps://t.co/dq78PZgcDd
🇪🇺 *MONEY MARKETS PRICE THREE #ECB QUARTER-POINT RATE HIKES IN 2022 – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
Fiscal Policy
Greece will raise the minimum wage for employees by 7.5% to 713 euros a month starting on May 1, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis says https://t.co/KutoqSUA4d
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 20, 2022
Politics
Emmanuel Macron warned during France's presidential debate that his opponent, Marine Le Pen, risks starting a “civil war” with a ban on Muslim headscarves, while she sought to portray the president as an elitist in thrall to global finance https://t.co/GZz1ToYdfi
— Bloomberg (@business) April 21, 2022
Poll: Macron More Convincing Than Le Pen In French Election Debate – RTRS https://t.co/BweXDnB8IC
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 20, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 *SHOIGU TELLS PUTIN #RUSSIA ARMY HAS CAPTURED #MARIUPOL: IFX
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 21, 2022
Russia test launches intercontinental ballistic missile amid war https://t.co/goiCjiqLSA pic.twitter.com/rZoBoBWNsQ
— The Hill (@thehill) April 21, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 16 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2022
🌎 #IMF/World Bank Meeting
🇫🇷 French Debate and Elections
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Powell and Lagarde Speeches
🇺🇸 Beige Book
…https://t.co/y8cADwGDqQ