Morning Brief: Powell’s Debrief; U.S Housing Market Under Pressure; EU to Tell Member States to Rein In National Debt
Americas
Markets
2s30s US Treasury yield curve slope below -100 bps! pic.twitter.com/wKL8Qd9thR
— Alf (@MacroAlf) March 7, 2023
🇺🇸 Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ldJ8ArDtiq pic.twitter.com/ZV3Nzg7Q6t
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1: 2.0% (prev 2.3%)https://t.co/GIJHH2ZMsR pic.twitter.com/EPrTlpMloV
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 7, 2023
🇺🇸 High Frequency Data point to weakness in the U.S. employment market.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
*They show that job openings are weaker than JOLTS suggests.
*Charts from @MacroAlf and @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/A1ZqfeuRpk
Housing
Great chart to explain how unaffordable the housing market has become.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) March 8, 2023
The average monthly mortgage payment in Atlanta has gone from $320 in 2012 to just under $2,000 now. pic.twitter.com/4hosXwNK7N
Houses are the most unaffordable that they've been in decades pic.twitter.com/LFNuPqVuHg
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 8, 2023
Portfolio manager at one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and he specializes in real estate: pic.twitter.com/C7LomKC8mZ
— Alf (@MacroAlf) March 7, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 Powell Sees Higher Peak for Interest Rates, Says #Fed Prepared to Speed Up If Needed – Bloomberghttps://t.co/WHJRJ7XZnM
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 7, 2023
Fed chair basically admits that Biden's economic policies are so bad they will have to keep raising interest rates until people lose their jobs and inflation starts to come down. 👇https://t.co/aoDYJqnye2
— Marc Lotter (@marc_lotter) March 7, 2023
The Bank of Canada is set to become the first major central bank to hit pause on interest rates https://t.co/ipMbTRcAgL
— Bloomberg Canada (@BloombergCA) March 7, 2023
Fiscal Policy
US House Republicans Taking Steps To Prepare For Possible Debt Ceiling Default – Semafor https://t.co/WOdv6tn4ju
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 7, 2023
President Biden's budget will propose hiking payroll taxes on Americans making over $400,000 per year and allowing the government new power to negotiate drug prices to extend the solvency of a key Medicare program for another quarter century. https://t.co/WhnM3e0gZ0 #tax
— Accounting Today (@AccountingToday) March 7, 2023
Pentagon’s Budget Will Seek Big Increases For Weapons Buying, R&D – BBG https://t.co/atDuuuslWn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 7, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
House Speaker McCarthy Confirms US Meeting With Taiwan President – BBG https://t.co/E7br9UMHho
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 8, 2023
The United States' list of recently sanctioned entities for alleged support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine includes two Canadian companies, U.S. and Canadian authorities said https://t.co/s9i5gU725O
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 7, 2023
By Jonathan Landay, Simon Lewis and Olena Harmash WASHINGTON/KYIV (Reuters) – New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials indicates that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe, but they havehttps://t.co/OPIdUwLWtV
— MSN UK (@msnuk) March 8, 2023
Biden is coming out here to southern California next week and will make an AUKUS announcement alongside Australian and British leaders—possibly from a submarine. 👍https://t.co/ZcJqzq6WhF
— Derek J. Grossman (@DerekJGrossman) March 8, 2023
Asia
Markets
🇨🇳 Chinese mutual funds suffer biggest net outflow in 31 months – Nikkeihttps://t.co/3YkpMS9Ogt
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Wage Hikes At Japan’s Small Firms Closely Watched For BoJ Clues – BBG https://t.co/Y5Yc2uG5DA
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 7, 2023
Monetary Policy
BoJ Will End YCC In 2023 But Tweak This Week Unlikely, Economists Say – RTRS Poll https://t.co/4g73D7n1hm
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 8, 2023
Inflation and Recent Economic Data | Speeches #rba #auspol https://t.co/KHdmfQpOTv
— Poppy Masselos (@poppymasselos) March 7, 2023
China’s sweeping changes to the financial regulatory system will see the central bank lose some of its functions to a new and enlarged oversight body, leaving it focused on broader economic and financial stability management https://t.co/GWMpFaqkte
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2023
Regulation
China granted a key ministry new powers and created a bureau to oversee increasingly valuable data, shaking up oversight of its vast technology arena as Xi Jinping’s administration battles the US in areas from AI to semiconductors. https://t.co/4DEvcCaaUT
— Daily Maverick (@dailymaverick) March 7, 2023
China is setting up an enlarged national financial regulatory authority, in a move to strengthen the Communist Party’s leadership in its $60 trillion financial system and keep risks in check https://t.co/27e5M6jgoG
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
As Xi faces major domestic challenges with economy and rising debt, his frustration with Biden is growing https://t.co/x16mWKbnWw
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 7, 2023
China says U.S. should change attitude or risk conflict via @ReutersWorld https://t.co/8Jl4j58HHO
— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) March 7, 2023
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be using his first visit to India this week to deepen business and defense ties with Asia’s third-largest economy https://t.co/9oS7Xgyxcm
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇪🇺 #Inflation perceptions and expectations – #ECB (CES)https://t.co/XBZ2QwDq5b pic.twitter.com/FFxgavDsOW
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 7, 2023
British Labour Market, And Pay Growth, Slow In February, REC Surveys – RTRS https://t.co/hc3pfPiJ9F
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 8, 2023
🇩🇪 #GERMANY JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 3.5% M/M; EST. +1.4% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
*GERMANY JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 1.6% Y/Y; EST. -3.7%
*GERMANY JAN. RETAIL SALES FALL 0.3% M/M; EST. +2.3%
*GERMANY JAN. RETAIL SALES FALL 4.6% Y/Y; EST. -5.0%
Monetary Policy
The Swiss National Bank hasn’t yet done enough to bring inflation back down to target, according to President Thomas Jordan https://t.co/3XldEdDS3W
— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2023
economics: The pound could weaken further as investors absorb the implication of the Fed and ECB’s plans to raise interest rates, warns Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann https://t.co/ZYDaG9nxhO
— Stock Figures 24/24 (@stockfigures24) March 7, 2023
🇬🇧 Andy Haldane Says #BOE Should Move Cautiously on UK Rate Hikes – Bloomberghttps://t.co/oSJ5uxgmZc pic.twitter.com/oKmLnz5yRX
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Jeremy Hunt is considering giving British firms extra tax relief on investment spending as he seeks measures to boost economic growth in his spring budget https://t.co/Ze3txMXaDN
— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2023
🇪🇺 EU to Tell Member States to Start Reining In National Debt—Bloomberghttps://t.co/vxhdwgELdp
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2023
Energy
The new European energy normal remains rather painful: @JavierBlas https://t.co/cFU1MqcVfK via @opinion pic.twitter.com/PNNIJIs9ug
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 6, 2023
UK grid uses back-up coal for first time as cold snap hits https://t.co/N0eLQX8L9g via @_ToddGillespie pic.twitter.com/FcROsbf0IN
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 7, 2023
Politics
Ireland plans to hold a referendum in November to delete references to a woman's place being in the home from its constitution, the government announced https://t.co/8CIDcJ5Hmd
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 8, 2023
French nationwide strike to extend as pension reform fight intensifies#arynews https://t.co/TdNa2vcWFf
— ARY NEWS (@ARYNEWSOFFICIAL) March 8, 2023
UK rail workers union suspend Network Rail strikes after new pay offer https://t.co/1kH8v05ume pic.twitter.com/1xEhpc7oqI
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 8, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Ukraine has been fighting to keep control of the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut for months as Russian troops level the area.
— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2023
Here's why the stakes keep rising in the battle for the city https://t.co/u5XibF2fZn
📝🇺🇦Ukraine resists intense Russian attacks in Bakhmut, says (former comedian actor) Pro-US Ukrainian president zelenskiy
— 🌐World News 24 🌍🌎🌏 (@DailyWorld24) March 1, 2023
The intensity of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces around the eastern city of Bakhmut is continuing to increase, Zelenskiy said pic.twitter.com/VjuHNu8wwb
Other Areas And Global Economy
Global #semiconductor industry sales totaled $41.3 billion during the month of January 2023, a decrease of 5.2% m/m and 18.5% less y/y. -SIA
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 8, 2023
Year-to-year sales ticked up in 🇪🇺Europe (+0.9%) and 🇯🇵Japan (0.7%), but fell in the Americas (-12.4%), and 🇨🇳China (-31.6%). pic.twitter.com/yWptSkQ6Mb