Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Geopolitics
Iranian ForMin: Gaza War Expansion Inevitable Due To Heightened Israel Crimes – MNAhttps://t.co/UMFRR3HsdE
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
Israel Agrees To 4-Hour Daily Pauses In Gaza Fighting – AP Newshttps://t.co/CYbzpm5LCb.
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 9, 2023
People are seen entering the Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt, after reports foreigners and wounded Palestinians were allowed to leave Gaza for the first time since Israel began its ground invasion
— Bloomberg (@business) November 1, 2023
Latest: https://t.co/IncU6ud21q pic.twitter.com/hb9UosY3Zh
Markets
Investors Pull Record Sums From Corporate Bond ETFs As Lending Rates Soar – FThttps://t.co/CbQdqnafDn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
Today’s auction “was historic, and perhaps pivotal for near-term market direction. .. the Fed’s options to continue QT get slimmer, and may be reassessed (as Bostic hinted recently) if the yield surge sucks the liquidity out of the system.”@NewEdgeWealth pic.twitter.com/kuAsPoX7ln
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 10, 2023
Today, at 1 PM ET the entire stock market turned lower.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 10, 2023
What happened?
The 30-year bond auction drew 4.77% which was above the presale numbers by ~5 bps.
In other words, the auction performed far worse than expected as inflation worried persisted.
This was perceived as a sign… pic.twitter.com/nvCTejj74D
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Census: U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century https://t.co/TxojJSRmMT
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 9, 2023
I'll have much more on these new Census projections – and the implications for housing – soon (I'm sure housing economist Tom Lawler will comment!) https://t.co/fvaWgufcmE pic.twitter.com/E0OxpmPYS4
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 9, 2023
Since the Fed started raising rates, employment growth has slowed significantly.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 9, 2023
Over the next 6 months, we should see employment growth slow even further, according to Apollo.
The Fed may finally be getting the labor market weakness they need to tame inflation.
However, this… pic.twitter.com/xV5Wy8zAQa
Housing
JUST IN: Lawyers who won $1.8 billion lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors file new suit for anyone who has sold a home over the last 5 years.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 9, 2023
The original lawsuit was filed in 2019 on behalf of 500,000 home sellers in Missouri.
Now, lawyers are saying that… pic.twitter.com/r7V6MRJuQ7
Monetary Policy
Powell elaborates on the Fed’s current, conditional pause:
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 9, 2023
We’ve been headfaked before on inflation. Policy should balance the risk of overtightening with the risk of “being misled by a few months of good data”
Also: Fed policy review will begin in 2H 2024 and last about a year pic.twitter.com/6cOclI0vxX
Powell says Fed to be careful, won’t hesitate to hike if needed – Bloomberg https://t.co/89yCsx1uNB
— The Edge Malaysia (@theedgemalaysia) November 10, 2023
Carefully Hawkish
— Yiannis Patrikakis (@patrikakis) November 9, 2023
Fed Officials Say Full Impact of Past Rate Hikes Is Yet to Come https://t.co/uC05n8mCLv
Fed Discount-Window Loans (USD) W/E 08-Nov: 2.23B (prev 2.95B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 9, 2023
– Bank Term Funding Loans: 112.9B (prev 109.1B)https://t.co/HdS4B3odz5 pic.twitter.com/xnw7pUWmLX
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
BREAKING: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin announced he won’t seek reelection, a blow to Democrats’ prospects for keeping the Senate majority after 2024 https://t.co/G8grHEYEVA
— Bloomberg (@business) November 9, 2023
Swing-state voters see Trump’s US-Mexico border security as a greater priority than the foreign policy crises Biden’s confronting, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows https://t.co/9rlDMHL1yH
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) November 9, 2023
Janet Yellen said she plans to discuss the use of security measures in commercial relations during her two-day meeting with Chinese economic policy tsar He Lifeng https://t.co/WoBnju6puc
— Bloomberg (@business) November 9, 2023
Race to finish Indo-Pacific trade deals hit snags ahead of APEC summit https://t.co/tyNhqnoavY pic.twitter.com/ALATRY6Kv2
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 9, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
China's 2023 growth target within reach -c.bank governor https://t.co/aOPTIHyGMc pic.twitter.com/zp2nqs8KiJ
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 8, 2023
Housing
A $5.5 billion selloff in Ping An is underscoring why a mooted takeover of distressed developer Country Garden would be perilous for both the insurer and the Chinese financial system https://t.co/35EjVLp5Dn
— Bloomberg Next China (@next_china) November 9, 2023
Country Garden Aims To Have Offshore Debt Restructuring Plan By Year End, Sources Say – Market Screenerhttps://t.co/PBRANtyZZh
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
China’s Property Risks ‘Manageable,’ PBOC Governor Says – BBGhttps://t.co/N47VxodbaF
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan is moving closer to a departure from its long-standing ultraloose policy, a summary of opinions from its latest meeting in October suggests, with policymakers calling for a smooth path toward normalization. https://t.co/sX3p5dPHmO
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 9, 2023
🔴 BOJ'S GOVERNOR UEDA WARNS THAT UNWINDING THE ULTRA-LOOSE POLICY IS A ‘SERIOUS CHALLENGE’ – FT. https://t.co/MWUUsIMPPA
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) November 9, 2023
We have released the November 2023 issue of the Statement on Monetary Policy – https://t.co/Y5E90MvhaA
— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) November 10, 2023
Chinese banks have ramped up their borrowing of short-term funds, a sign that fears of a cash crunch still loom large https://t.co/7awngjTRVF
— Bloomberg (@business) November 10, 2023
RBA Statement On MonPol: Sees Risk Of Upside Surprises In Inflation Within Our Outlook
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
– Considered Pause In Nov Meeting, Opted For Hike
– Risk CPI Takes Longer To Return To Target Increased
– Raises Forecasts For Inflation & GDP Growth, Trims Unemployment & Wage Forecasts
Fiscal Policy
Japan’s cabinet approves a $87.2 billion extra budget to support PM Fumio Kishida’s latest economic package amid an ongoing decline in support for his administration https://t.co/ExfpRTx9IS
— Bloomberg (@business) November 10, 2023
Japan To Top Up Fiscal Loans, Investments To Boost Supply Chain – CNAhttps://t.co/42zFW6Rfcn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
#China can raised budget deficit ratio next year to support recovery, needs to increase intensity of fiscal policy – #PBOC advisorhttps://t.co/haGgRmRP6L
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 10, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
EU, China set to hold summit in December https://t.co/Yr699bKuOb pic.twitter.com/Va05lQ7sRv
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 10, 2023
Japan and China have begun preparations for their leaders to meet next week as Beijing ramps up engagement with major economies amid sluggish growth at home.https://t.co/zdvu6qjlAl
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 9, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July to September (Quarter 3):
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 10, 2023
▪️ services fell (-0.1%)
▪️ construction grew (+0.1%)
▪️ production was flat (0.0%)
➡️ https://t.co/cy3TeNVTig pic.twitter.com/HHKIe3SOu7
UK Industrial Production (M/M) Sep: 0.0% (est 0.0%; prev -0.7%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
– Industrial Production (Y/Y) Sep: 1.5% (est 1.1%; prev 1.3%)
Italian Industrial Production (M/M) Sep: 0.0% (est -0.2%; prevR 0.3%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
– Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y) Sep: -2.0% (prev -4.2%)
– Industrial Production NSA (Y/Y) Sep: -5.0% (prev -4.1%)
Danish inflation is almost gone with lowest price hikes since 2020 https://t.co/j1vYGUEYVo via @CHRWIENBERG pic.twitter.com/HMLJlLTVpI
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
Housing
Monetary Policy
The ECB can engineer a return to price stability without too much of a hit to the economy, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic https://t.co/Of37V84Dr2
— Bloomberg (@business) November 9, 2023
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says any talk of lowering borrowing costs in the coming months is too early, citing continued upside risks to inflation https://t.co/yquntxFoU9
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 9, 2023
The ECB must be careful not to withdraw too much liquidity from the financial system as it unwinds past stimulus measures, Chief Economist Philip Lane says https://t.co/Sj4i12CBRu pic.twitter.com/4ZOmRueHZq
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
BOE choices are making it harder for Jeremy Hunt to spur the UK economy https://t.co/KYXOXM1IEB via @PhilAldrick @LucyGJWhite @_DavidGoodman pic.twitter.com/N2NVHJESGo
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
Fiscal Policy
EU to edge towards deal on new fiscal rules; big differences remain https://t.co/xptQ8RLnIk
— Jan Strupczewski (@reutersJanS) November 7, 2023
Scholz promises a longer-term boost to German military spending https://t.co/m97keBsno4 via @mcnienaber pic.twitter.com/UQeXCV3jFd
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
Energy
Why the US and Europe still buy Russian nuclear fuel https://t.co/AwCsKpY5Ca via @virtualnomad pic.twitter.com/Dlo43jHNrv
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 9, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Portugal starts countdown to snap vote after probe toppled prime minister https://t.co/f86ma0ufJn via @halmeida5 @joaomlima1 pic.twitter.com/vPsr00uAz4
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
Spain’s future hangs on Sanchez’s ability to control his new Catalan partners https://t.co/TLcfuUbCbp via @rorihuela pic.twitter.com/UltJ1PPOxr
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 10, 2023
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 45 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2023
🇺🇸 U.S. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
🌎 Powell, Lagarde Remarks and Other Central Banks’ Speeches
🇨🇦 🇯🇵 #BOC and #BOJ Minutes
🇨🇳 Chinese Data
…https://t.co/6HoHDEp6Ol
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here