Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Geopolitics
– US launches strikes on Iran-linked sites in Syria
— Bloomberg (@business) November 13, 2023
– Biden speaks with Qatar about securing the release of hostages in the Gaza Strip
– Israel’s military presses on with its offensive against Hamas
Our coverage of the Israel-Hamas war is free to read https://t.co/cZLec8jJbZ
Al Quds hospital said to be no longer operational. Follow the latest news on the Israel-Hamas war https://t.co/cQm1BuB7My
— Bloomberg (@business) November 12, 2023
Markets
Hedge funds have been aggressively reducing long exposure recently, according to JP Morgan data pic.twitter.com/bCDLw9uAdX
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 12, 2023
After one of the best weeks for stocks in years, AAII bulls saw a historic jump. (insert shocked face)
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 9, 2023
Up >18% in one week has only happened 8 other times the past 20 yrs.
Higher a yr later all 8 times, but near-term some weakness isn't abnormal. pic.twitter.com/ljR5UPE55h
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 *MICHIGAN PRELIM. NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT AT 60.4; EST. 63.7 – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 10, 2023
*MICHIGAN NOV. CURRENT CONDITIONS FELL TO 65.7 VS 70.6
*MICHIGAN NOV. EXPECTATIONS INDEX FELL TO 56.9 VS 59.3
*MICHIGAN YEAR-AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ROSE TO 4.4% VS 4.2%
*US 5-10 YR INFL. EXPECTATIONS RISE…
🇺🇸 US Consumer Long-Term #Inflation Expectations Reach 12-Year High – Bloomberghttps://t.co/VIVnn8vyl2 pic.twitter.com/20y3BRYHz2
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 10, 2023
From the U-Mich survey:
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 10, 2023
"Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.4%, indicating that the large increase between Sept’s 3.2% reading and October’s 4.2% reading was no fluke"
Long-run expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.2%, a 12-year high https://t.co/crQL4DjRRU pic.twitter.com/mA7bfTGVNs
Housing and used cars make up more than half of core CPI.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 9, 2023
Rent prices are negative YoY (Apartment List) and used cars (Manheim) have been negative YoY for 14 months.
I know what Powell said today, but the Fed is done hiking. pic.twitter.com/hRfu0ehXec
US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 2.51% (prev 2.41%)https://t.co/iifr56fLpw pic.twitter.com/9w7Ce7Gwky
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 10, 2023
Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said policymakers can return US inflation to their goal without need to raise interest rates further. https://t.co/186PVtGf4s
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 10, 2023
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US central bank may need to hike its benchmark lending rate again if progress on inflation stalls while the economy roars ahead https://t.co/ipBz6wGHqh
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 10, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan says the US central bank should consider ways to strengthen its liquidity infrastructure https://t.co/h9NSMo0mbC
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 10, 2023
Now below 1 Tr.
— Stephane Deo (@StephaneDeo) November 10, 2023
A 58% drop since end of March.
And the plunge will continue… https://t.co/AClxBnD6EQ pic.twitter.com/gLBUN6SZtg
So far this month, market has continued to price in Fed's pivot to rate cuts in 2024 (particularly in back half of year) pic.twitter.com/jQQBzTicMy
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 10, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇺🇸 US Credit-Rating Outlook Changed to Negative by Moody’s – Bloomberghttps://t.co/1DwgPX0Ea4 pic.twitter.com/ELGUcx2ntm
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 11, 2023
🇺🇸 US #Shutdown Risk Eased in Stopgap Plan Offered by Johnson – Bloomberghttps://t.co/oN5yi4oLXZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2023
Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley says the US fiscal position is on an “unsustainable trajectory” https://t.co/KF1fGaIkjp
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 13, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Janet Yellen plans to visit China again next as as the US Treasury secretary and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to intensify communication to improve relations between the world’s two biggest economies https://t.co/HYVd77f2q4
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 10, 2023
Markets
Yen Near One-Year Low Ahead Of Latest US Inflation Data – Nikkei https://t.co/xwB9tEL2Ih
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 13, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Housing
China’s show of support for one of its top builders has reinvigorated the property sector, but investors want to see more concrete measures before diving back in https://t.co/J0wX9Wg3xp
— Bloomberg (@business) November 10, 2023
Monetary Policy
China will probably add more cash into the financial system this week as the largest amount of policy loan in a year comes due. Some market watchers also expect a near-term reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratio. #PBOC #Liqudityhttps://t.co/vr6SFK6vfC pic.twitter.com/IlzgfBfQdk
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 13, 2023
⚡PBOC conducted 113 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Monday. A total of 95 billion yuan will be injected into the market on a net basis as 18 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/VlYxnKBpWG
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 13, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇨🇳 #China Urges Capital Injection Plans for Key State Firms – China Securities Journal
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 13, 2023
➡ China’s state-owned assets administrator urged to draft capital injection plans for state-owned enterprises involved in key industries at a recent meeting by the authority’s party…
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Beijing considers a commitment to buy the Boeing 737 Max, which would mark a sales breakthrough for the US planemaker https://t.co/Hke4Wyh4jJ
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 13, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
My #Eurozone #inflation #NowCast based on Supermarket Indices (based Open API grocery prices from retail companies) shows further #CPI slowdown in November. Since 2022, Germany with strongest increase of Supermarket prices, Italy in midfield, France rather low recently in line… pic.twitter.com/M9DMg61ypm
— 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) November 12, 2023
Housing
UK home asking prices post their biggest November fall in 5 years https://t.co/a4d7Uojs7e pic.twitter.com/NxftjjbWTM
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 13, 2023
UK Landlord Selloff Slows, Defying Highest Rates In 15 Years – BBG https://t.co/8tbUFP74ZP
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 13, 2023
Monetary Policy
15:03 « Even If energy prices were to remain reasonnably flat now, we will be losing the base effect comes January & February. So we should not assume that this respectable 2,9% headline number is some thing that should be taken for granted and for long »
— Nicolas Goetzmann (@NicolasGoetzman) November 10, 2023
True, but 3 & 6 months… https://t.co/yPc7xPfSCq pic.twitter.com/RFzCYSazCH
🇪🇺 *GUINDOS: #ECB WILL ENSURE RATE AT LEVEL TO TAME INFLATION – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 13, 2023
*GUINDOS: DECEMBER FORECASTS WILL HELP ECB JUDGE SITUATION
*GUINDOS: INFLATION DOWN, BUT WILL STAY TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG
*GUINDOS: DOMESTIC PRICE PRESSURES REMAIN STRONG
*GUINDOS: FISCAL POLICY SHOULD AIM TO…
🇬🇧 Traders Say UK #Inflation Risks Undoing Aggressive Rate-Cut Bets – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZcKTLA0TLX pic.twitter.com/X0DaOsPg7A
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel says some important aspects have yet to be considered in the EU’s talks on reforming the bloc’s fiscal framework https://t.co/5q78qffeUK pic.twitter.com/A15E01NMUX
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 13, 2023
Moody’s Tail Risk Has Italy On Edge Before Critical Rating Call – BBG https://t.co/OvoCfUQ4Ih
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 13, 2023
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to extend a major tax break for businesses in his upcoming fiscal plan, part of an effort to spur investment and boost the stagnant UK economy https://t.co/uowPMCBxFm via @Joe_Mayes @EllenAMilligan @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/OjeHBMZC6a
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 11, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
EU Weighs Sanctions Against Iran Over Israel-Hamas War – Politico https://t.co/eD3TvEOCrK
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 13, 2023
The EU tells member states that the bloc is very unlikely to hit a pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition, complicating Kyiv’s ability to keep pace with Russia’s own production https://t.co/wmoGiHiF8L
— Bloomberg (@business) November 10, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here