Morning Brief – March 9th 2021
Americas
WATCH: The Nasdaq hit correction and the Dow gained after investors bet on stocks that might benefit the most from an economic rebound as the stimulus bill awaits a final congressional vote https://t.co/hEoh0jzl9U pic.twitter.com/NxuHLoxvDt
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 9, 2021
For the first time since 1993, the Dow is at a record, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is in a correction, 11% from its high pic.twitter.com/HhvrhJZh3r
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 8, 2021
Major Individual Income Tax Provisions in H.R.1319, The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 as Passed by the Senate, by Expanded Cash Income Percentile, 2021 – Tax Policy Center
*Link: https://t.co/fLcInAweRI pic.twitter.com/C6tQDn6iTP— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Under Biden’s covid stimulus, 70% of the tax benefits go to households making $91,000 or less in 2021.
Under Trump’s tax law, nearly half the benefits went to households making $308,000 or more in 2018.
(via @TaxPolicyCenter)
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 9, 2021
Poorest 20% of Americans estimated to see ~20 percent boost in income from Biden relief plan, particularly due to stimulus payments & CTC, per new Tax Policy Center analysis
Richest 1% to receive income boost of 0%, analysis sayshttps://t.co/2WmwjszTSo
— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) March 8, 2021
*YELLEN: DON’T EXPECT UNDESIRABLE LEVELS OF INFLATION – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2021
Yellen says the Biden administration is working toward getting the labor market “back on track” by later this year or early in 2022 https://t.co/bnu0wjDt13
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 8, 2021
#FED EXTENDS PAYCHECK PROTECTION LIQUIDITY FACILITY TO JUNE 30 – BBGhttps://t.co/LKjMAMVT8S
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2021
The Fed is extending its paycheck protection facility for 3 months, but 3 other emergency lending programs will expire at the end of March amid low usage, highlighting how far strains caused by the pandemic have eased in financial markets https://t.co/UXI0bZRwl7
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 8, 2021
#Covid_19: Daily Summary (March 9th)
➡ News
➡ Restrictions (easing)
➡ Regional/national data
➡ Vaccine trackerhttps://t.co/JQfoc9pB8k— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Goldman Now Sees Most Advanced Economies Reaching Herd Immunity In 3 Months https://t.co/Lg0HwXw7a2
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 8, 2021
Goldman Sachs forecasts a jobs boom, says unemployment rate could fall to 4.1% by the end of 2021 https://t.co/A5y9BmLQuB
— CNBC (@CNBC) March 8, 2021
Retail investors drove unprecedented trading volumes on #Canada’s stock exchanges in January and February – Globe And Mailhttps://t.co/HbspuhZqCe
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Exclusive: Three ships carrying U.S. ethanol head to China – sources https://t.co/lVuzT3YH0y pic.twitter.com/oTrFAsQUHr
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 9, 2021
Asia
Asia Set for Muted Open After U.S. Tech Tumble: Markets Wrap https://t.co/R9uT7Rsk3C
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) March 8, 2021
Hong Kong equity markets experienced the 2nd largest round of net outflows via the HK-China Connect schemes on Monday.
– Net outflows have been recorded in 5/10 sessions, breaking a 3-month stretch of daily inflows, incl. the 2 largest daily rounds of net outflows on record. pic.twitter.com/Gef9zsdJXe— Anthony Barton (@ABartonMacro) March 9, 2021
#China State Funds Buy Stocks to Stem Worsening Rout – Bloomberghttps://t.co/gpjKvWOXKp
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Japan confirmed its economy grew by double-digits at the end of last year, according to revised data https://t.co/O1YBsDhDKv
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 9, 2021
#China’s February retail passenger vehicle sales ⬆ 368.4% YoY (v +25.6% YoY in January) to 1.19m units – China Passenger Car Association
*Cumulative sales (YTD 2021) ⬆ 69.6% YoY to 3.38m units. pic.twitter.com/q6tUQxSQKO— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
China’s central bank will take measures to prevent systemic financial risks from building in the economy as the recovery takes hold, Deputy Governor Chen Yulu says https://t.co/sIMahPdvgD
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 9, 2021
RBI loosens grip on yields at auction to leave traders guessing https://t.co/NNHBUDKvTn
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 9, 2021
More Chinese stocks likely to follow after CNOOC’s New York exit – Nikkeihttps://t.co/CP3ZX6YFIf
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
#China Vows to Expand Legal ‘Toolkit’ to Fight U.S. Sanctions – Bloomberghttps://t.co/t40NvMvKrp
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 8, 2021
Top #China Generals Urge More Spending for U.S. Conflict ‘Trap’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/OiPoJVhBRA
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Haunted by 2008, #China and U.S. Diverge on Stimulus Plans – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/jogQGTO44r pic.twitter.com/lDknJ8Xzxe— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Europe
What worries BOE officials now is hobs, not inflation threat
France to avoid another recession with growth in 1Q
Oil flirting with $70 challenges the world’s economic recovery
Here’s a rundown of your top economic news today https://t.co/BPTLvRqKym— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 9, 2021
#Europe #Covid_19: Daily Summary (March 9th)
Special focus on ⚠ #France ⚠
Data for #Germany, #Spain and #Italyhttps://t.co/a564hE2MFG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
#France Avoids Another Recession With Growth in First Quarter
*Link: https://t.co/PUYhO7A7tN
*BoF link (French): https://t.co/HcRaRYiE5h➡ I still believe the government target of 6% for 2021 GDP is still reachable. pic.twitter.com/ujM7v7woSW
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Frankfurt, we got a problem.
A second consecutive week of very low net PEPP purchases (€11.9bn) despite dovish ECB rhetoric. And don’t get us started with large redemptions and seasonal factors.
Where there’s a will there’s a way. pic.twitter.com/pCOjYiDAlW— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) March 8, 2021
German exports post surprise rise as China trade sizzles https://t.co/5T6VVBkBu8 pic.twitter.com/hvLs2u2F4A
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 9, 2021
UK retail sales growth accelerated in February as the government’s roadmap to end the coronavirus lockdown spurred purchases of back-to-school items https://t.co/tFX3DHR4sx
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 9, 2021
U.S., EU Reach #WTO Tariff-Quota Pact Post Brexit, USTR Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/OzA8qn5g31
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
Turkey extends lay-off ban by two months https://t.co/s0rK9Urygx pic.twitter.com/welLCkF01s
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 9, 2021
Using IMF GDP weights and my own national forecasts, I expect Global GDP growth to exceed 6% this year.
*Bloomberg consensus:
+5.5%e v -3.5% in 2020https://t.co/aSsxA54txA— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 9, 2021
*Most Read:
U.S. Total Excess Personal Savings Will Be A Massive Economic Boost From 2Q
US Growth Will Exceed Expectations In 2021
Week Ahead – w10 (2021)