Morning Brief: LEI Point To Recession; Japan Inflation Quickens Again; ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Bank Liquidity
Americas
Markets
BofA Strategist Says Sell US Stocks As AI Seen Forming A Bubble – BBG https://t.co/MOhFx4JKem
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 19, 2023
🇺🇸 #WallStreet Fears $1 Trillion Aftershock From Debt Deal – Bloomberghttps://t.co/gUsLkmKT2z pic.twitter.com/ATFZymlu1e
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 19, 2023
It's almost like every Friday speculators try to squeeze mega cap tech higher.
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 19, 2023
Look at that predictable sequence of call volumes surging.
Source: Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/BTa1WXm0s9
"Everyone is too bearish"
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 19, 2023
NASDAQ call volume hit the highest levels since 2014 today
Source: Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/IcLuspFJlB
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) made a new 52-wk high for the first time in nearly 18 mos today.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 19, 2023
Do you know what happened the previous times it went >6 mos w/o one and then finally made a new high?
A yr later higher 14 of 14 times.
Sure, this time 'could be different', but I doubt it. pic.twitter.com/UgH1WCrEth
*Focus on Banks
🇺🇸 #Fed Loans to Banks Rise as Term Funding Program Reaches New High – Bloomberghttps://t.co/GAPShJHO39 pic.twitter.com/AaMRkQHh24
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 19, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 *US APRIL INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FALLS 0.6% (13th straight drop)
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 19, 2023
*On a YoY basis, the index fell 8.0%.
*Usually, this level is associated with #recession. pic.twitter.com/qgAiv7dKuh
Philly Fed index below -25 accurately predicted a recession since the 1970s
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 18, 2023
We're already at -31.3 pic.twitter.com/7iZf8iCEgw
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 242,000https://t.co/ErtCkXJCFO pic.twitter.com/cqzs8alve8
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 18, 2023
Housing
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in Aprilhttps://t.co/nTCkXltNar pic.twitter.com/yM45nO7a1d
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 18, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed’s Bullard Suggests Higher Rates As ‘Insurance’ Against Inflation – FT https://t.co/HqAWcNcGIh
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 18, 2023
Fed Officials Face ‘Loathsome’ Playbook For Debt-Ceiling Standoff – WSJ https://t.co/QlG4V0zApM
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 18, 2023
Politics
Why Greece’s election could end up with no winner https://t.co/zDam7q1fxW via @NikasSotiris @PaulTugwell1 pic.twitter.com/yx138GEgnR
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 19, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇺🇸 McCarthy, Schumer Eye Debt-Limit Votes Ahead of June 1 Deadline – Bloomberghttps://t.co/HqKqyFU9xU
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 19, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Global debt nears record highs as rate hikes trigger 'crisis of adaptation,' top trade body says https://t.co/tmP3rUA6Bu
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 19, 2023
🇯🇵🧵THREAD 1) The annual G-7 summit has officially kicked off.
— Bloomberg (@business) May 19, 2023
Follow the latest analysis and updates as leaders of the world’s biggest economies gather here in Japan⬇️https://t.co/jczf8QHMzN
Asia
Markets
Yuan’s Biggest Weekly Loss In Three Months Tests PBoC Tolerance – BBG https://t.co/GZnl9vwG66
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 19, 2023
China Considers Moving Stakes In Bad Banks To Sovereign Wealth Fund – BBGhttps://t.co/XUlijNCn8T
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 19, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Japan's inflation stays above BOJ's target, key gauge hits four-decade high https://t.co/r63zzSDU2O
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 19, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 #China | New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, rose 0.32% last month from March, when they grew 0.44%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Wednesday – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 17, 2023
*Price gains slowed to just 0.01% in the secondary market, after climbing 0.26%… pic.twitter.com/wmp6lwHnsw
Monetary Policy
China Set To Hold Lending Benchmarks Steady In May, Survey Shows – RTRS https://t.co/Kn0zqrrZpW
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 19, 2023
Speech by Governor UEDA at a Meeting Held by the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai (Research Institute of Japan) (Basic Thinking on Monetary Policy and the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices) https://t.co/JYb8MjR1Ls
— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) May 19, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
China said it will reopen its doors to visits from Taiwan tour groups, a mostly symbolic move as Beijing aims to increase exchanges with the island ahead of a key election next year https://t.co/NRpFv66rqC
— Bloomberg (@business) May 19, 2023
Europe
Markets
Italy bond market calm to face a stress test as rating risks junk https://t.co/OEykwRonh9 via @lineoyamada @alicegledhill1 pic.twitter.com/AZzmhvLbH5
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 19, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
The huge pile of backlogs continues to provide a cushion in the face of weak demand for German industry. But March's very sharp drop in backlogs despite nearly balanced orders/output suggests that order cancellations continue to roll in (Yes, the calculation is a bit iffy). https://t.co/9kZrVXgYkq pic.twitter.com/nM0zSLxRyD
— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) May 19, 2023
UK Consumer Confidence Rises To Highest Level In More Than A Year – FT https://t.co/IG86NCORw0
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 19, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Bank Liquidity, May Raise Requirements – Bloomberghttps://t.co/u4j1IoqIDz pic.twitter.com/Z7fFMVo8vA
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 19, 2023
Fiscal Policy
UK lays out $1.2 billion plan to invest in domestic chip sector https://t.co/CmEWLdgiz4 via @TW_Seal pic.twitter.com/ZUBfRh1lPv
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 19, 2023
Politics
Why Greece’s election could end up with no winner https://t.co/zDam7q1fxW via @NikasSotiris @PaulTugwell1 pic.twitter.com/yx138GEgnR
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 19, 2023
Greece prepares for Sunday’s election, which could prompt an investment-grade status upgrade for the nation
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) May 19, 2023
Paul Tugwell reports from Athens https://t.co/0yGcKtP624 pic.twitter.com/Me0YYBp1Kc
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Rishi Sunak strikes more cautious tone on AI in call for G-7 regulation https://t.co/kl6a1hHqqa via @alexwickham pic.twitter.com/YQadBeQdOU
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 19, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 20 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 #BOE, #ECB and #Fed Speakers
🇪🇺 EC Spring Forecasts
🌎 #G7 Leaders Summit
🇺🇸 US Data
🇺🇸 #Debt Ceiling Talks
…https://t.co/XPrF6IUR3o