M — Morning Briefs

Morning Brief: Focus on Warsh’s Speech at Jackson Hole; BoJ Got the Inflation Signal It Needed To Hike; Focus on French Credit Rating Update

28 August, 2026
Morning Brief

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

CNBC: Tech's gain was the largest on a day when it was the market’s lone positive sector in records going back to 2006. https://t.co/7ytKtf1Yjw pic.twitter.com/JV7mvpBKP6

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 27, 2026

After a very strong 2-year Treasury auction Tuesday and a solid if slightly softer 5-year Wednesday, today’s $44B sale of 7-year notes continued the pattern with a perfectly acceptable if unspectacular auction.

The clearing yield was 4.512%, the highest since early 2025, up from… https://t.co/4x64oAlldN pic.twitter.com/qnyPZbtZdX

— Neil Sethi NEW account (@neilsethinew) August 27, 2026

*Focus on AI

📉 The price of intelligence is collapsing while the cost of the infrastructure required to produce it remains extremely high – Bloomberg
*It seems what companies are willing to pay to consume AI is falling quickly.

➡️ Compute remains expensive, some Nvidia servers shall rise by… pic.twitter.com/YbYKJfdwsZ

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

🇺🇸 #Nvidia Pauses Revenue-Sharing Deals With AI Cloud Companies – WSJhttps://t.co/oNGLZfQt4Whttps://t.co/bsu7cE7qAJ

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

⚠️AI's OFF-balance-sheet financing web keeps getting more complex:

In Broadcom's, $AVGO, $35 billion chip-lease deal, Google builds the tensor processing units, Broadcom co-designs and sells the finished chips, and a special purpose vehicle (SPV) buys them using debt to lease… pic.twitter.com/yy2nQTjQBw

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) August 27, 2026

Hyperscaler depreciation expense is set to jump to over $500 billion by 2030, equal to the expected operating profits of all five companies in 2026. But don’t worry, EBITDA margins are going to soar, so the ratio of depreciation to EBITDA will barely rise 😉 pic.twitter.com/ZWl94UjqSR

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) August 27, 2026

🇺🇸 🌎 Another potential headache for US data centers — Trump tariffs – Politico
*The Trump administration is weighing a new round of tariffs on semiconductors, which could hit not just chips but also goods made with them, such as laptops and servers ⚠https://t.co/JK5TpKwuvc

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

Anthropic Considers Letting Shareholders Sell In IPO, Departing From SpaceX Playbook – @theinformation https://t.co/VeZTBwEhiZ

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 27, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Initial jobless claims down to 203k vs. 208k est. & 207k prior (rev up from 206k); continuing claims 1.778M vs. 1.792M est. & 1.796M prior (rev down from 1.799M) … greatest increases in KY (+518), OH (+342), & UT (+74k); greatest decreases in MI (-2.5k), CA (-1.4k), & SC (-1.1k) pic.twitter.com/ZgHwCjBttc

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 27, 2026

🇺🇸 US Goods-Trade Deficit Widens to Largest Since March 2025 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/M9xuyBHkL6 pic.twitter.com/wOGjMiWs06

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) July P: 1.3% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%; prev R 0.3%)
– Retail Inventories (M/M): 0.7% (est 0.2%; prev 0.0%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 27, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇺🇸 #Fed’s #JacksonHole Conference Is Underway: Here’s What to Expect – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aZKmvqbNJLhttps://t.co/trjfFVsGSp

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to provide a strong rebuke of high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market https://t.co/WLEnhHgwQu

— Bloomberg (@business) August 28, 2026

The Fed is divided over whether policy is tight enough and now comes a new complication: what if Bessent's push on bond yields works? Lower long-term yields would ease financial conditions right as the Fed may not want that.

Debt management has always been Treasury's job. Using…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 27, 2026

Fiscal Policy

What crowding out looks like: Treasury + IG issuance (hyperscaler debt) net of QE/buybacks, about to be the highest on record, surpassing even crisis years 2020/2021 pic.twitter.com/ofUyagAdia

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 27, 2026

🌎 The ‘Burn the Bonds’ Stage of the Debt Cycle Is Here – Bloomberghttps://t.co/inoY3k9f2I pic.twitter.com/tqKzQzLcsp

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Scoop: U.S. close to striking "massive" deal for Venezuelan oil fields – Axioshttps://t.co/0NXYiOVeqZ

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

#OOTT | Venezuela Weighs OPEC Exit After Decades As It Deepens US Ties – BBGhttps://t.co/HHfE51Atm2

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 27, 2026

US dependence on Chinese critical minerals is so deep that if Beijing plays games, even Patriot missile lines can't guarantee their tungsten supply.

We already got a preview back on Liberation Day 2025 of how Beijing can weaponize all of this. If Washington is actually serious… https://t.co/MlrCQ7QYuS pic.twitter.com/7egv4B3ooC

— JH (@CRUDEOIL231) August 27, 2026

US Patriot Missile Stocks In Europe Are ‘Beyond Critical’ Due To Iran War – APhttps://t.co/ORJ9GXaDeC

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026

Trump To @axios: I'm Not Worried Russia Will Attack NATOhttps://t.co/ZDhPJiWnCo

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 27, 2026

Focus on Middle East conflict

Iran Talks Sputter As Trump Spurns A Return To His June Deal – @WSJ https://t.co/650LjuzC7H

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 27, 2026

Iran, Oman agree to open temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor; may help break US‑Iran stalemate
On Thursday evening Supreme National Security Council secretary Rezaei said in an Al‑Manar TV interview that Iran and Oman have agreed to open a temporary shipping corridor…

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 28, 2026

Asia/Middle East

Markets

🇰🇷 SK Hynix CEO dismisses memory chip oversupply risks, sees crunch till end of 2030 – Nikkeihttps://t.co/eKCZ28rJK8

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🇨🇳 GLM-5.3 Flash aka Ox Alpha is here 🚨https://t.co/qPrLBbctHz has confirmed it’s a new GLM-series model — and it may now be the best intelligence-per-dollar choice.

➡ Intelligence / cost per task:
• GLM-5.3 Flash: 63% / $0.24
• DeepSeek-V4 Flash: 53% / $0.46
• GPT-5.6… pic.twitter.com/HjxrT7W5su

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇯🇵 #BOJ #Japan | Tokyo’s CPI print may look fairly harmless at first glance. However, the details are much more hawkish than the headline suggests. I think it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Bank of Japan to justify staying on hold in September unless something… pic.twitter.com/5C0Mk4Vi6q

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇹🇭Bank of Thailand governor said restrictions on #gold trading have weakened gold's influence on the Thai baht; with authorities stepping up scrutiny of the gold market, related measures may be tightened further. (https://t.co/nk3wyXklBS)

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 28, 2026

🇨🇳PBOC reverse repos net drain 245.5 bln yuan today; net weekly injection 1.2265 tln yuan
The PBOC conducted 20.0 bln yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 333.0 bln yuan of overnight reverse repos; with 95.0 bln yuan of 7-day and 503.5 bln yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing, the…

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 28, 2026

Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tells Bloomberg’s @haslindatv the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to rein in accelerating inflation. Rajan is serving on a task force set up to examine the US central bank: https://t.co/5gfdFmUzyK pic.twitter.com/NVFrQ6yLcf

— Bloomberg (@business) August 28, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇨🇳 #China Welcomes S&P’s A+ Rating, Pledges More Policy Support – Statement

➡ China welcomes S&P’s decision on maintaining the country’s A+ sovereign credit rating and stable outlook, according to a statement from the Chinese finance ministry.

➡ Vows to step up macroeconomic…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🌎 Globalization is often discussed through the lens of tariffs and trade wars but the latest OECD data points that global competition is increasingly between companies backed by states.

📊 In 2024, subsidies received by the large industrial firms tracked by the OECD reached… pic.twitter.com/ljOJuWObxT

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

🇨🇳Ministry of Finance proposes 11–13% local surtax rate band
China's Ministry of Finance published a draft Local Surtax Law for public comment proposing a local surtax rate band of 11–13%. Provincial, autonomous region and municipal governments would set and adjust specific rates… pic.twitter.com/tTS0almRbf

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 28, 2026

🇨🇳 #CHINA SEEKS PUBLIC OPINION ON DRAFT LOCAL SURTAX LAW: XINHUA

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇨🇳🇺🇸Foreign Ministry responds to possible U.S. sanctions on Chinese banks
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, at a routine press briefing, was asked about reports that U.S. President Trump yesterday said the U.S. may sanction Chinese banks that continue doing business with Iran… pic.twitter.com/oYPq66BhSR

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 28, 2026

South Korea backs Trump’s North Korea talks, but warns against being sidelined https://t.co/R2OUXSuFzx

— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) August 28, 2026

Europe

Markets

Economic Indicators and Prospects

🇪🇺 🇨🇳 Europe thought it had slowed the Chinese offensive by imposing tariffs on electric vehicles but Chinese automakers have simply found another way in. Their share of the European car market exceeded 11% in July now account for roughly a third of PHEV sales.

📊 Chinese… pic.twitter.com/YL2eny7Hwu

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🇫🇷 #FRANCE PRELIM AUG. HARMONIZED CPI RISES 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.6% – BBG
*FRANCE PRELIM AUG. HARMONIZED CPI RISES 0.8% M/M; EST. +0.7%

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

France Consumer Spending (M/M) Jul: 0.5% (est 0.0%; prev 0.4%; prev R 0.6%)
– Consumer Spending (Y/Y): 1.4% (prev 0.1%; prev R 0.6%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026

France’s economy unexpectedly failed to grow in the first half, only narrowly avoiding recession and undermining the government’s effort to get a grip on public finances https://t.co/If5dwo2ejn via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/7BueOfaROz

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026

🇪🇸 #SPAIN PRELIM AUG. HARMONIZED CPI RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. +4.6% – BBG
*SPAIN PRELIM AUG. HARMONIZED CPI RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. +4.6%

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

Spanish inflation surges beyond 4% as France’s also quickens https://t.co/LL95RasLRj via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/gcy8weZEX5

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026

Germany Unemployment Change Aug: 4.0K (est 4.8K; prev 6.0K)
– Unemployment Claims Rate SA: 6.4% (est 6.4%; prev 6.4%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026

Germany Import Price Index (M/M) Jul: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev -0.7%)
– Import Price Index (Y/Y): 6.8% (est 6.9%; prev 6.1%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026

Italy Industrial Sales (M/M) June: -1.0% (prev 0.6%)
– Industrial Sales WDA (Y/Y): 3.1% (prev 5.3%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 28, 2026

Monetary Policy

🇪🇺 #ECB Officials Discussed Need for ‘Mildly Restrictive’ Policy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/hRYGXP7jUo

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

🇪🇺 *#ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER RADEV SPEAKS TO ECONOSTREAM – BBG
*RADEV: AWAITING 2ND-ROUND EFFECTS COULD MEAN ACTING TOO LATE
*ECB'S RADEV: NEUTRAL RATE IS PROBABLY AROUND 2.5%

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 27, 2026

🇪🇺 #ECB Mustn’t Allow Inflation to Take Root, Kazaks Says – Bloomberg
➡ The European Central Bank can’t let elevated gains in consumer prices persist, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.“Inflation mustn’t be allowed to take root,” Kazaks told Latvia’s TV3 on…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

Fiscal Policy

🇫🇷 #France goes into tonight’s Fitch review in a much weaker position than it did six months ago 🚨
*The sovereign is currently rated A+ with a Stable outlook, after Fitch downgraded it from AA- in September 2025 and then affirmed the rating in March. My base case would not be…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🇪🇺 Von der Leyen: “Europe must complete the Investment Union.”

The EU is closer than ever to unifying its capital markets.

🔸 Around €10tn in household savings remains in bank deposits.

🔸 EU household wealth has increased by 55% since 2009, compared with 151% in the US.

🔸… pic.twitter.com/1X5UpMiM3H

— Marcos Agustín (@marcosagusstinn) August 27, 2026

Chancellor Healey says UK fiscal discipline is the ‘bedrock’ of the Labour government https://t.co/KQwVXsgw5C via @Hariboconomics @LucyGJWhite pic.twitter.com/baTYoCGf5m

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026

Energy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

🇩🇪 🇨🇳 German industry presses Merz for tougher China policy – Reutershttps://t.co/D0NbRaNT0rhttps://t.co/SJ6ohTgLin

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🇫🇷 4 takeaways from #France’s first presidential debate – Politicohttps://t.co/nLottvBGD1

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 28, 2026

🇫🇷 Le débat des sept candidats à la présidentielle hier à la REF m'a intéressé puisque tout le monde a été forcé de parler de l’équation économique française. Pour être franc, certains candidats ont de bonnes intuitions mais personne n’a fermé l’équation budgétaire alors que… pic.twitter.com/sqsHfNDKPR

— Finneko (@finneko_prgrm) August 28, 2026

Meloni party official floats alliance with Italy far-right group https://t.co/JYd3FuL1HA via @donatopmancini pic.twitter.com/leOfRR7KkC

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) August 28, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

⚠ #WeekAhead #Preview: Week 35 (2026) ⚠

🇺🇸 🌎 #JacksonHole
🇰🇷 #BoK Meeting
🇦🇺 🇸🇪 🇪🇺 #RBA, #Riksbank and #ECB Minutes
🌎 U.S., Australia, Tokyo, France and Spain #Inflation Reports
🇺🇸 U.S. BLS Revisions
🇨🇳 #China’s Top Legislature Meeting
🇺🇸 Bessent on #Iran
🇺🇸 #Nvidia…

— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) August 23, 2026

The world's major central banks have finally unwound most of their pandemic-era balance sheet growth:

The Federal Reserve’s total assets as a % of US GDP are down to 21%, the lowest percentage since the 2020 pandemic.

By comparison, the peak was recorded in 2021 at ~37%.

At… pic.twitter.com/vo6LMeqRPp

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 27, 2026

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here