Morning Brief: Focus on U.S. Employment Report, Traders Bet On Three Quarter-Point ECB Hikes By October
Americas
Markets
The Powell pivot
— The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) May 6, 2022
The transitory trap
The bond bust
Don’t care what you call it, it’s ugly pic.twitter.com/I1b0EeXudJ
Economic Indicators and Prospects
April Employment Preview https://t.co/M59YWGGHhR
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 5, 2022
Overall, the ADP report was below expectations, the ISM employment surveys were weak, and unemployment claims was mostly neutral during the reference week. This suggests a weaker than expected employment report for April.
Goldman April Payrolls Preview https://t.co/lMwhKpJwjs 300K, 3.5% unemployment rate
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 5, 2022
Housing
🇺🇸 *U.S. #MORTGAGE RATES JUMP TO 5.27%, HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 2009https://t.co/m4LoWMFXFI
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 Ex-#Fed Vice Chair Clarida Says Rates Must Rise to at Least 3.5% – Bloomberghttps://t.co/h2PvWPTZlr
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2022
U.S. RATE FUTURES PRICING IN 75% CHANCE OF 75 BPS FED HIKE IN JUNE FEDWATCH; CME FEDWATCH SEES 83% PROBABILITY…
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) May 5, 2022
Energy
*DOE ANNOUNCES LONG-TERM BUYBACK PLAN TO REPLENISH OIL RESERVES – BBGhttps://t.co/VsWG2WVBoO
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
US Assesses That N.Korea May Be Ready To Conduct Underground Nuclear Test This Month – CNN https://t.co/bQ86DzHS5X
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2022
Asia
Covid-19
Mainland #China reports 356 local confirmed cases and 4,272 asymptomatic cases on May 5.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 6, 2022
—#Shanghai reports 245 + 4,024 cases and 12 death cases,#Beijing reports 55 + 17 cases,#Henan province reports 24 + 55 cases.
—
Source: NHC https://t.co/Vn4CdlQSnB pic.twitter.com/K7ccDe3qJz
The proportion of Chinese cities with districts labelled as risky has also fallen in recent weeks, according to Goldman Sachs. Provides some insight into why the leadership is sticking with its current strategy. pic.twitter.com/hW0ar2dJJi
— Tom Hancock (@hancocktom) May 6, 2022
🇨🇳 *ADIDAS SAYS 25% OF ITS STORES IN #CHINA ARE CURRENTLY CLOSED – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
*ADIDAS SAYS 15% OF ITS PARTNERS' STORES IN CHINA ARE CLOSED
The majority of Japanese factories in Shanghai are yet to resume any production, with the city’s lockdown still damaging business activity even as the local government claims that production is getting back on track https://t.co/4d68An6kSr
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 6, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 *#CHINA APRIL VEHICLE SALES FALL 47.6% M/M: CAAM PRELIM DATA – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
#China's #auto sales in Apr are estimated at 1.17 mln units, sliding 47.6% from Mar and down 48.1% y/y, said China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) May 6, 2022
In Jan-Apr, auto sales are estimated at 7.68 mln units, down 12.3% y/y.
The cost of living in Tokyo rose at the fastest pace in almost three decades in April https://t.co/zITaoQdCVd
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 6, 2022
Monetary Policy
Economists see India’s central bank following up its off-cycle interest rate increase with another 100 basis points of moves in the current financial year ending March, the latest Bloomberg survey shows https://t.co/Vc82oiJU7r
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 6, 2022
The Reserve Bank of Australia said it will need to raise interest rates further as unemployment is forecast to drop to the lowest level since 1974 https://t.co/RjvGSvNm7L
— Bloomberg Australia (@BloombergAU) May 6, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇬🇧 U.K. House Prices Climb for 10th Straight Month, Halifax Says – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
*Average prices rose 1.1% in April, up 10.8% from year earlier
*Link: https://t.co/HyNYAiArY0 pic.twitter.com/74QOBzRSSw
Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino says there’s evidence the country has passed the peak of inflation https://t.co/oLzQ4DArFH
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 6, 2022
Monetary Policy
ECB’s Rehn: Should Move Quickly With A Rate Hike – CNBC https://t.co/pt2R808tXr
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 6, 2022
🇩🇪 🇪🇺 #ECB must quickly raise key rates, says head of #Germany's Ifo institute – Yahoo (citing Reuters)https://t.co/KO6jsYYCa6
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
ECB’s Schnabel Sees Climate Change, War Leading To Higher Rates – BBG https://t.co/69Nu7QltxM
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 6, 2022
ECB interest rates may be raised back above zero this year if the euro-zone economy doesn’t suffer another setback, Francois Villeroy de Galhau says https://t.co/VwDgirgZLh
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 6, 2022
🇪🇺 *MONEY MARKETS BET ON THREE QUARTER-POINT #ECB HIKES BY OCTOBER – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
Fiscal Policy
🇬🇷 #GREECE: EXTRA ENERGY HELP MEASURES TO COST EU3.2B TO YEAR-END – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
Energy
EU Revises Russia Oil Sanctions Plan To Give Hungary More Time – BBG https://t.co/fmQC7V9qUz
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 6, 2022
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 *EU SEEKS BAN ON RUSSIAN #OIL SHIPPING SERVICES IN 3 MONTHS – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
*EU PROPOSES EXEMPTION FOR CZECH REPUBLIC UNTIL JUNE 2024
*EU PROPOSES OIL BAN EXEMPTION FOR HUNGARY/SLOVAKIA THROUGH 2024
🇪🇺 🇭🇺 🇷🇺 *#HUNGARY NEEDS 5 YEARS OF EXEMPTION FROM EU #RUSSIA #OIL BAN:ORBAN – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 6, 2022
Finland managed to cut the amount of oil it imports from Russia just after the invasion of Ukraine started in late February https://t.co/Qg2HwVCtx6
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) May 6, 2022
Politics
IDS predicts Tory performance in locals won't spark a cascade of 'no confidence' letters in PM.
— Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) May 6, 2022
He says party's results in London are 'bad & not okay', but nationally they are looking 'bad & okay'.
But warns there's 'so much' the Govt isn't doing and should be on the economy.
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Here's the latest updates on Russia's invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/M7D0sWKzia
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) May 6, 2022