Markets
*Focus on banks
🇺🇸 #FDIC Plans to Hit Big Banks With Fees to Refill Insurance Fund – Bloomberghttps://t.co/kfCSQsBE9E
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2023
$WAL | Western Alliance Becomes Latest US Bank To Explore Potential Sale – @FThttps://t.co/4kNJjtcGqv
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 4, 2023
JPMorgan’s Dimon reportedly making first mainland China visit in four years https://t.co/DazdDN469V
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 5, 2023
Bank deposits continue to decline at an unprecedented rate
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 4, 2023
Tighter lending standards should lead to a credit crunch in the coming months pic.twitter.com/CnjQJX4ASQ
*MONEY MARKET HOLDINGS HIT RECORD $5.31T IN WEEK ENDED MAY 3:ICI
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2023
Up $47BN in one week, up $100BN in two weeks… the bank run is accelerating pic.twitter.com/t7kuYEF6nz
There was only $5.3 billion in discount window lending outstanding as of Wednesday, reflecting the acquisition of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 4, 2023
The Fed's lending to First Republic, via the discount window and BTFP, has been reclassified in the Fed's balance sheet statement pic.twitter.com/l6G69NFVmD
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 242,000https://t.co/rtEQVjV1m0 pic.twitter.com/fX1dUwoviL
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 4, 2023
Trade Deficit decreased to $64.2 Billion in Marchhttps://t.co/liuX1q3zpI
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 4, 2023
The trade deficit with China decreased to $16.6 billion in March, from $34.0 billion a year ago. pic.twitter.com/whjuboYtcg
On May 4, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2023 is 2.7%. https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast. https://t.co/NOSwMl7Jms pic.twitter.com/IRgI2bHnnL
— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) May 4, 2023
Moody's: US GDP Growth Would Be 1.61% In 2024 Under GOP Debt Limit Plan Vs. 2.23% Otherwise
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 4, 2023
– Plan Would 'Meaningfully Increase' Likelihood Of Recession
– GOP-Proposed Spending Cuts Are 'Substantial Headwind' To Near Term Economic Growth
– Plan Would Cost 790K Jobs By End-2024
BoC’s Macklem: Expect #Inflation To Fall Quickly This Summer, But Path From 3% To 2% Is Both ‘Slower And More Uncertain’https://t.co/aowVoq7Ac8
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 4, 2023
*Focus on U.S. Employment Report
US Economy Set To Have Added Jobs At Slowest Pace Since 2020 – FT https://t.co/GxWZjaaeT3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
2.
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 4, 2023
“.. Layoff announcements continue to rise, with the Challenger survey reporting a 176% year-over-year increase in April. .. Jobless claims follow announcements, and we expect the first 300K print by mid-year.”@PantheonMacro #NFP pic.twitter.com/Z77CBTehwo
Simple model for private monthly payrolls growth based on 2m forward NFIB hiring plans (pre-COVID)… Post covid R2 about the same (i.e., not very significant) pic.twitter.com/pn9vg3osnh
— Parker Ross (@Econ_Parker) May 4, 2023
Monetary Policy
The Fed has a problem with inflation and banks. Congress and Biden have a problem with the debt ceiling. A deal to cut federal spending could address all of them. https://t.co/fG9XL3L6ir
— Greg Ip (@greg_ip) May 4, 2023
NY Fed Statement Regarding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Small Value Exercisehttps://t.co/VRaosyP0oC pic.twitter.com/SSGvueJTK7
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 4, 2023
NEW: The U.S. Treasury will design a program to buyback government debt with plans to execute purchases beginning next year
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 3, 2023
The Treasury hasn't done this since 2000 https://t.co/EnNqZRegZ7 pic.twitter.com/kSGUOrkYPN
Fiscal Policy
WATCH: The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on the impact of GOP debt limit bill https://t.co/iB9ZOXCNXE
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 4, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
US Seeks Meeting With China Defense Minister After Being Spurned – BBG https://t.co/M3NcEK3eoW
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
🇺🇸🇵🇭💥🇨🇳 U.S. issues guidelines on defending Philippines from South China Sea attack
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 4, 2023
The United States has laid out in clear terms the extent of its defence treaty commitments to the Philippines, issuing new guidelines that refer specifically to attacks in the South China Sea,… pic.twitter.com/AvN8ZdoM24
"We're still trying to gather evidence" about the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin, but allegations by #Russia that the US was involved are "lies," NSC spokesman John Kirby tells White House reporters.
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 4, 2023
https://t.co/uYCuCEtNsK
US debt ceiling crisis gives China chance to cut Treasury exposure, push yuanhttps://t.co/CFEivLlUsc
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) May 4, 2023
Markets
🔵 YEN SET TO SNAP 3-WEEK LOSING STREAK ON BANK JITTERS, DOLLAR SLIPS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 5, 2023
Read More: https://t.co/5fstIKwWXb pic.twitter.com/A1JAnGDVgV
*Focus on Banks
Australia's top banks look to diversify from mortgages as rates peak https://t.co/JDgEaPIXrZ pic.twitter.com/jnJ9lzgzm0
— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) May 5, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
⚡JUST IN:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 5, 2023
Caixin April Services PMI 56.4 [Est.57.0 Prev.57.8]
Caixin April Composite PMI 53.6[Prev. 54.5].#China #PMI 🇨🇳 https://t.co/BoVJUsT8wt
🇨🇳 #China Services Activity Eases as Concerns Mount Over Rebound – Bloomberghttps://t.co/XDoEJNmyV6 pic.twitter.com/0pNB8O6BoZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2023
RBA Cuts GDP, Inflation Forecasts As Rate Hikes Cool Activity – BBG https://t.co/8rATb4ntuG
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
Housing
Chinese #property developers rally on Fri after a sell-off earlier this week.
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) May 5, 2023
Sunac China is surging nearly 16% after the developer said that creditors holding 85% of its exiting debt have acceded to restructuring agreement. pic.twitter.com/T09iZ8f28h
#China's #property transactions in major cities rose by about 25% y/y during May Day holiday, partly due to low base last year, but sales remain more than 20% lower than 2019-level, according to real estate research firm China Index Academy.
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) May 4, 2023
Monetary Policy
🔵 CHINA TO ENHANCE CREDIT SUPPORT TO PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROJECTS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 5, 2023
Read More: https://t.co/MBTnxiZiOr pic.twitter.com/ZELACWasfa
Vietnam central bank bought $4.9 billion in first 4 months to boost reserves – minister https://t.co/Y1XewQe5yY pic.twitter.com/q8Oy3ew9He
— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) May 5, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Russia confirms enriched uranium supplies to Chinahttps://t.co/DXAmJ2VoXE
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) May 5, 2023
*Focus on Banks
🇬🇧 UK Depositors Pull £11 Billion Out of Banks After SVB Crisis – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Csi5g9DLqd pic.twitter.com/sdWU9cCLTd
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 5, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
French Industrial Production (M/M) Mar: -1.1% (est -0.4%; prevR 1.4%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
– French Industrial Production (Y/Y) Mar: -0.1% (est 1.1%; prevR 0.9%)
– French Manufacturing Production (M/M) Mar: -1.1% (est 0.0%; prev 1.3%)
– French Manufacturing Production (Y/Y) Mar: 0.7% (prevR 1.8%)
German Factory Orders (M/M) Mar: -10.7% (est -2.3%; prev 4.8%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
– German Factory Orders WDA (Y/Y) Mar: -11.0% (est -3.1%; prev -5.7%)
Okay, so what happened? German factory orders plunged the most outside the pandemic in March. Part of the 11% m/m drop was due to volatile big ticket orders but even excl. those this was the largest non-pandemic fall since the GFC at -8% and uniform across sectors. 1/ https://t.co/dQurzfZEoJ pic.twitter.com/epqUkzT7KN
— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) May 5, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB Raises Main Refinancing Rate By 25BPS to 3.75%; Est. 3.75% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2023
*ECB: FUTURE DECISIONS WILL MAKE RATES SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE
The peak in interest rates might be nearer than ECB President Lagarde tried to make markets believe at the press conference, writes @carstenbrzeskihttps://t.co/krykdnqdvG
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) May 4, 2023
Most Bank Economists See ECB Raising Rates Twice More by July … BBG
— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) May 5, 2023
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley see another two 25 basis-point steps
ING and Commerzbank anticipate just one such hike,
Danske Bank expects three for a terminal rate of 4%.https://t.co/xPpYLkXHjv
ECB survey shows 2% inflation target further out of reach https://t.co/LS4mysmozl pic.twitter.com/NFiFyPjtxU
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 5, 2023
Danish central bank raises interest rates to mirror the ECB hike https://t.co/sd7nZqXDbR via @CHRWIENBERG pic.twitter.com/V3hooxtaF1
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 4, 2023
Britain will be the last advanced economy locked in a pitched battle against inflation, if market bets are any guide https://t.co/RiqmZcotuN
— Bloomberg (@business) May 5, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Flood Of Bond Sales Pushes Up UK Borrowing Costs – FT https://t.co/Qim77Vo2Es
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 5, 2023
The UK chancellor’s new adviser warns against a quick fix of tax cuts https://t.co/WsuBkTgFCO via @tomelleryrees @lizzzburden pic.twitter.com/7H31o30pEG
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 5, 2023
Politics
Labour makes big gains early in UK local election counting https://t.co/McbjvJ1Z8J via @kitty_donaldson @Joe_Mayes pic.twitter.com/TGz64BOdB7
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 5, 2023
French union warns ‘battle isn’t over’ against pension reform https://t.co/OlCpJ9urMc via @JReganReg pic.twitter.com/SxXY4xsn6e
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 4, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Italy's foreign minister cancels a trip to Paris after a member of the French government criticized Rome's management of the ongoing migration crisis https://t.co/XevvmuCxsY pic.twitter.com/c4fwd2qhGl
— ANADOLU AGENCY (@anadoluagency) May 4, 2023
🔵 RUSSIA'S LAVROV SAYS KREMLIN DRONE INCIDENT WAS 'HOSTILE ACT'
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 5, 2023
Read More: https://t.co/xedfkEP8Qp pic.twitter.com/2Y8iZSg6gn