Morning Brief: Focus on U.S. CPI; China’s Real Estate Sees Signs of Improvement; EU Hits China With Probe Into EV Subsidy
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
Retail stock purchases vs student loan payments (via @vandaresearch)https://t.co/QwGQCqEIhB pic.twitter.com/u2THbzX6Ju
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 12, 2023
BofA September Global Fund Managers survey shows the current [bond] allocation is 1.9 standard deviations above its long-term average.
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) September 13, 2023
(The upper 6% most bullish readings of the last 20 years).
Bond bullishness in the extreme … contrarian sell signal (higher rates). https://t.co/G30otYXDfe pic.twitter.com/8BNOJ2Iu18
VVIX/VIX indicators are rolling over now so we're getting close.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 13, 2023
Other charts continue to replicate a similar February 2020 pattern. https://t.co/wdHV3zJ8fJ pic.twitter.com/Ck6w5MrEAf
Economic Indicators and Prospects
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug: 91.3 (exp 91.5; prev 91.9)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 12, 2023
🇺🇸 Amazon To Boost Pay For Contracted Delivery Drivers – CNBChttps://t.co/gQAgZXwah5
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
*Focus on CPI
FUNDSTRAT: Of the last 10 #CPI prints, six saw Core MoM “hotter” than consensus.
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 13, 2023
* 4 of 6 times, equities gained in the following week
* 5 of 6 times, equities gained on the day
“Bottom line: We worry of a ‘hot’ CPI but we think stocks likely power through that.” @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/zZMYIqrrWY
🇺🇸 #Inflation | Adobe Digital Price Index: Online Prices Fall to 40-Month Low, Down 3.2% In August – Adobehttps://t.co/yZ3DqxkHiZ pic.twitter.com/QLptDbHTLQ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023
Housing
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 12, 2023
Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to or below July SAAR https://t.co/iOmzP2Jaic
CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Rate Increased in July https://t.co/T8CCgFZ55Q
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 12, 2023
"U.S. home price gains rebounded year over year in July, increasing to 2.5% and following two months of 1.6% annual gains."
Monetary Policy
Bob Michele (JP Morgan's CIO) was on Bloomberg this morning talking about the Fed's emergency BTFP interventions & the liquidity crisis in banks.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 12, 2023
He also specifically mentioned Truist Bank 😬 https://t.co/S94qKp1SJV pic.twitter.com/Bb68P2e5QB
Kyle Bass Sees Banks Losing Quarter Trillion Dollars In Coming Office Market Collapse; Morgan Stanley Sees 40% Wipeout https://t.co/wieEfucIpZ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 12, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Asia
Markets
🇯🇵 #Japan 10-year bond yields hit 9-year high on lookout for BOJ shif – Nikkeihttps://t.co/3yEUWGZIfS
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
⚡CAICT: #China July domestic mobile phone shipments -6.8% y/y to 18.55 million, Jan-Jul domestic shipments -5.1% y/y to 148 million.📉
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 13, 2023
July smartphone shipments -9.6% y/y to 17.29 million, and Jan-Jul smartphone shipments fell 7.3% to 142 million.📉#phones #5G pic.twitter.com/X0qjq9AiGx
South Korea Export Price Index (Y/Y) Aug: -7.9% (prev -12.8%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 12, 2023
– Export Price Index (M/M): 4.2% (prev 0.1%)
– Import Price Index (Y/Y): -9.0% (prev -13.5%)
– Import Price Index (M/M): 4.4% (prev 0.4%)
Japan's Aug wholesale inflation slows as cost pressures ease https://t.co/BqcwJ89jUk pic.twitter.com/ci45hXdgsZ
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 13, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 China’s #Zhengzhou Scraps Curbs on Home Purchases, Sales – Statement
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
– Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province in central China, is lifting all the local restrictions imposed on purchases and sales of residential properties, according to a statement from the city’s…
Several #Chinese cities saw 2nd-hand #home listings surge after recent #RealEstate policy easinghttps://t.co/6CVls0dR2z
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) September 13, 2023
🇨🇳 #Housing | #China’s real estate sees signs of improvement thanks to policy optimization – Global Timeshttps://t.co/8ihP9DjhOr
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
Chinese #property developers continue to rally as more and more cities remove restrictions on home purchases and resales, lower downpayment requirements.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L https://t.co/w1TpjpMoVN pic.twitter.com/mleTRZ7Mhp
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) September 13, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 #China | #Yuan Bears Feel Heat of #PBOC Defense as Funding Costs Surge – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3yTXZBfVLi pic.twitter.com/stgvkxZgSX
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
🇨🇳 #China | #PBOC’s plan to sell more bills in Hong Kong will help maintain the basic stability of the offshore yuan, the Chinese central bank-backed Financial News says in a commentary on its official WeChat account.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/aRyAifdEnL
#PBOC will boost demand and support a modest rebound in prices, reported PBOC-backed Financial News citing central bank official.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L https://t.co/yBIEV315Dv pic.twitter.com/6HxEnLffx6
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) September 13, 2023
🇯🇵 #Japan | #BOJ may not be able to abandon NIRP until January at the earliest – Nikkei
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
*Link (Japanese): https://t.co/7ZOMQrgMAt
Energy
Australia’s $59 Billion Gas Sector Needs Policy Support, Shell Executive Says – BBGhttps://t.co/8xWbQx6iHA
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 13, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Japan Chief Cabinet Sec. Matsuno Confirms He Will Stay On In Role
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 13, 2023
– Suzuki To Stay As FinMin, Nishimura Stays On As TradeMin
– Yoko Kamikawa Named As New ForMin
– Yoshitaka Shindo Named As New EconMin
N.Korean Ballistic Missiles Likely Landed Outside Japan’s EEZ – @nhk_news https://t.co/Llkhb4qiqD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 13, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Bit of a shocker for UK GDP numbers for July this morning… down 0.5% month-on-month pic.twitter.com/EBOfcdaVFo
— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) September 13, 2023
Our initial estimates show GDP fell 0.5% in July 2023:
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 13, 2023
▪️ services fell 0.5%
▪️ production fell 0.7%
▪️ construction fell 0.5%
➡️ https://t.co/qgYfmT6ulm pic.twitter.com/bb1cmreGL1
🇪🇺 *EURO AREA JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 1.1% M/M; EST. -0.9% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
*EURO AREA JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 2.2% Y/Y; EST. -0.3%https://t.co/iIXGdn2bLQ
Euro zone began 2nd half of 2023 with slump in factory output https://t.co/9CQ3mo1g0g via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/j15rJc55vc
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
Germany To Predict 2023 Contraction In Updated GDP Forecast – BBGhttps://t.co/nDX0YNFJ6k
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 13, 2023
Housing
🇩🇪 #Housing #Contruction | German builders warn of crisis as they scrap record number of projects – FThttps://t.co/I4PsfKIoMUhttps://t.co/VIR3epxVj7 pic.twitter.com/ZbGTT34vCd
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB's crucial 2024 projection to put #inflation above 3%, source says – Reutershttps://t.co/SB22LxPUd0
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
🇪🇺 Traders Lift Bets on #ECB Rate Hikes on Worries Over 3% Inflation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/F3xuV5BxiMhttps://t.co/aUB4thMWqW pic.twitter.com/Nen9hrn0O7
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
Energy
Germany tests a Dutch fix for energy-guzzling (and ugly) buildings https://t.co/TdmPOE03hn via @WindSonja pic.twitter.com/cNRd4xvYJc
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
🇪🇺 🇨🇳 EU Hits #China With Probe Into EV Subsidy as Industry Fears Grow – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4nf26LQt0V
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 13, 2023
EU faces tough choices on expansion as Russia threat looms https://t.co/vur6P3cVMx via @europressos pic.twitter.com/XyZvSdjqOj
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 13, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 37 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 10, 2023
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting
🇺🇸 Possible US Auto Strike
🇪🇺 EC Outlook Update
🇺🇸 US CPI and Other Data
🇨🇳 🌏 Belt and Road Summit
…https://t.co/A2Laf4NaqU
🏆 Fibee’s de l’actualité économique et financière : les lauréats
— Fibee (@fibeenews) September 13, 2023
Les stratégistes & économistes
• @ABaradez
• @C_Barraud
• @PatrickArtus
• @phil_waechter
• @wgalandhttps://t.co/YRQtK1Numk
🛢 #OPEC #Oil Data Show 3 Million-Barrel Shortfall on Saudi Supply Squeeze – Bloomberghttps://t.co/0mqcgFRXTbhttps://t.co/jlGNjmeeE2 pic.twitter.com/8u5icTMq0a
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here