Markets
T-Bills Hit By US Debt Ceiling Worries, Stocks Slip Ahead Of CPI – RTRShttps://t.co/LCQmHsW24g
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 9, 2023
*Focus on Banks
Loan growth continues to trend lower, which is a problem for a debt-driven economy. pic.twitter.com/JiEz40bNKW
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 9, 2023
Offices account for nearly a quarter of commercial real estate debt maturities this and next year, or about $250B.
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 9, 2023
Given that we're seeing the lowest occupation rates in history, this could prove to be a problem for owners trying to refinance or repay debt. pic.twitter.com/Q4zXQFLSZL
Bankers at regional firms may see their bonuses drop as much as 20% this year, while the opposite is likely true for their counterparts at big, global companies https://t.co/dwk4TU2cYK
— Bloomberg (@business) May 9, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 US small-business sentiment fell in April to the lowest level in a decade ⚠, reflecting dimmer prospects for the economy and sales that are causing firms to dial back investment plans – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2023
*The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index decreased by 1.1…
Small businesses are the largest creator of jobs, and they are showing increasing signs of stress
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 9, 2023
While they continue to plan to hire, we're seeing signs that those plans are slowing
This is happening while productivity is falling and wages are risinghttps://t.co/pAXN8yMsHi
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index tumbled to seriously pessimistic levels in May, as increased layoffs and high interest rates, exacerbated by a bank crisis, raise the risk of a U.S. recession.
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 9, 2023
Source: IBD pic.twitter.com/Lln9P6KuXn
This bear market has been an absolute wealth destroyer
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 9, 2023
Household net worth is now contracting for the 4th time in the past 3 decades pic.twitter.com/HoSyaGc6Ts
The share of U.S. households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago eased a little bit in April but remains near 10-year highs in the New York Fed's consumer survey https://t.co/8KzxqdhVf1 pic.twitter.com/57QCAVcGdg
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 10, 2023
*Focus on CPI
Goldman preview of CPI:
— Blake B. Millard, CFA (@BlakeMillardCFA) May 9, 2023
We expect a 0.47% increase in April core CPI—above cons of 0.3% —corresponding to a YoY rate of 5.59% (vs 5.5% cons).
We expect a 0.50% increase in April headline CPI (vs 0.4% cons), which would raise the YoY rate to 5.09% (vs. 5.0% cons). pic.twitter.com/SNo9wMyYEH
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 9, 2023
US CPI expectations are elevated for April's data.
This makes sense as we saw prices in energy and a number other commodities rise.
Rents, the largest weighting in CPI, are also likely to remain elevated as average home prices are on the rise. pic.twitter.com/7Qbss7lK4F
On the labour side, shortages remain a concern for small businesses but leading indicators of wage growth keep normalising. pic.twitter.com/eww8OJEQtb
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) May 9, 2023
Housing
The New York Fed's survey of consumers shows expectations of year-ahead home price growth are rising
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 10, 2023
After recording a post-pandemic low of +1.1% in January, consumers expect prices to rise 2.5% in the year from April https://t.co/AaLToKDji7 pic.twitter.com/LbsVDEPniT
Monetary Policy
Pressed by @SaraEisen on whether the Fed has communicated a pause, NY Fed President John Williams says, "We haven’t said we’re done raising rates."
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 9, 2023
But he quickly adds, "We’ve made incredible progress over the last year or so" in getting real rates up https://t.co/VJLECrJDaA
Fiscal Policy
White House, McCarthy Disavow Short-Term Debt-Limit Extension #digitalhealth #socialmedia #digitalmarketing #healthtech #mhealth #AI #IoT #industry40 https://t.co/SOe8GZZpgL pic.twitter.com/QIhc2JO2Zg
— Dr Timos Papagatsias (@_timos_) May 9, 2023
Biden, Mccarthy Meet Hours After Disavowing Short-Term Debt Rise – BBGhttps://t.co/V0Yi0guN6t
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 9, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
US Trade Chief to Meet China Minister in Sign of Warmer Ties – BBGhttps://t.co/eto5JAdHk3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
Markets
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets https://t.co/nvxJmdfPHi
— Bloomberg (@business) May 10, 2023
⚡Chinese local banking and insurance supervisors are heading to Beijing this afternoon, 21 Jingji reports.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 10, 2023
Market guesses the National Financial Regulatory Authority will be established today, and headed by Li Yunze, the vice governor of Sichuan.https://t.co/osDzARXZun pic.twitter.com/pX9NcLxZ1v
Economic Indicators and Prospects
📉Resident population growth in #Shenzhen, #China's digital powerhouse, turned negative for the first time in the past 40 years.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 10, 2023
Kindergarten enrollment in Shenzhen fell 8.8% y/y to the lowest level in a decade.
The outflow is not a good sign for the #realestate market. pic.twitter.com/9BCcMyf8ne
Monetary Policy
China Bond Yields Fall As Economic Recovery Turns Patchy, Fuelling Bets On Rate Cuts – FPhttps://t.co/nBfEVLWj65
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
HK Dollar overnight HIBOR climbs 92 bps to the highest since December 2019. 🇭🇰 $HKDUSD pic.twitter.com/ZpXd0GLlQ6
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 10, 2023
Vietnam’s central bank is facing conflicting economic priorities, abruptly pivoting from tightening rates toward the end of last year to cutting them this year https://t.co/4z63nGhkLu
— Bloomberg (@business) May 10, 2023
Fiscal Policy
LATEST: Australia’s budget will record a surplus for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis, before higher interest rates weigh on economic growth https://t.co/jHyrOKba2G
— Bloomberg Australia (@BloombergAU) May 9, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Chinese Chipmaker Plans Listing After Clearing US Export Controls – FThttps://t.co/iGz5si6ba8
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
China is pushing up against a less friendly EU: Brussels Edition https://t.co/3C7OyywJjz via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/qNnRUJEubG
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 10, 2023
China vows to retaliate against EU sanctions on its companies https://t.co/3JuCbB1h9R
— Financial Times (@FT) May 9, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
German CPI (M/M) Apr F: 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
– German CPI (Y/Y) Apr F: 7.2% (est 7.2%; prev 7.2%)
– German CPI EU Harmonised (M/M) Apr F: 0.6% (est 0.6%; prev 0.6%)
– German CPI EU Harmonised (Y/Y) Apr F: 7.6% (est 7.6%; prev 7.6%)
Sharp Fall In Recruitment Of UK Permanent Staff In April, Report Finds – FThttps://t.co/gw7gQz5cT2
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 9, 2023
🇬🇧 Wages Are Rising Fast Across England, Finally Catching Up to Inflation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/2awoT7LGyl pic.twitter.com/cAlswMGyKX
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 10, 2023
Housing
Sweden’s property crisis worsens as one of the country’s biggest commercial landlords takes steps to conserve cash https://t.co/tspIaGdWyO
— Bloomberg (@business) May 9, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB's Schnabel: Inflation Momentum Remains High For All Components Except For Energyhttps://t.co/cehQJJvCOU pic.twitter.com/8vt4r2h3g8
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 9, 2023
ECB’s Stournaras Tells Greek Newspaper: As Things Stand Now, We Can Say That Interest Rate Rises Will Be Over In 2023
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
ECB’s Nagel: Very Satisfied With ECB’s Monetary Policy
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
– Lagarde And I Have Identical Understanding Of Policy
ECB may be coming to final stretch of rate-hiking, Nagel says https://t.co/5zvvcJinNQ pic.twitter.com/kmKkYqBXIO
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 10, 2023
European banks are subject to stronger supervision than many US peers and have proved stable during market turmoil, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says at Bloomberg’s Future of Finance forum in Paris https://t.co/giFOsgnf1J
— Bloomberg (@business) May 9, 2023
UK Financial Markets Price 100% Chance Of Bank Of England Rate Hike On Thursday
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 10, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Spain’s premier plans to ask Biden to drop Trump-era olive tariffs https://t.co/hwY8etLeRZ via @alonsosotoj pic.twitter.com/BdvITr56v9
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 9, 2023
Italy intends to exit China's Belt and Road pact as relations sour https://t.co/Q86O9vLMqc via @chiaraalbanese @aspeciale pic.twitter.com/T3R4akdAF8
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 9, 2023
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 19 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 8, 2023
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI
🇺🇸 🇨🇦 U.S. and #Canada Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys
🇺🇸 Debt Ceiling Discussions
🇬🇧 #BOE Meeting
🇨🇳 #China CPI & PPI
…https://t.co/DWfeT1Wd2W