Morning Brief: Focus on U.S. CPI; BOJ To Review Easing Side-Effects Next Week; ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Barclays Raises U.S. GDP 1st-Qtr Forecast, Sees Mild Recession From Q2 – RTRS https://t.co/bygxa0363o
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
*Focus on Inflation
US Inflation Set To Have Fallen To Slowest Pace In More Than A Year – FT https://t.co/rkPAEOAPzJ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
apparently it’s an internal forecast tool… pic.twitter.com/BlOux705AJ
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) January 11, 2023
Housing
Lawler: Freddie Mac “National” Home Price Index Down Again in November; Rents Continued to Slidehttps://t.co/RLVzb07wIC
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 11, 2023
Lawler: “Best guess” is that the national apartment rent index will decline by about 4% in 2023.
US House Starts (& GDP) thru 2022 held up DESPITE slumps in:
— Douglas Orr, CFA (@EquitOrr) January 12, 2023
a) Affordability⬇ /Mort⬆
b) Foot Traffic⬇
Why?
A. Backlogs⬆ in 21
KB Homes result => NEW Orders ⬇⬇
Q/Q to Nov-22 saw -80% fall in Net Orders
Lower Backlogs will soon reveal very weak “underlying demand” pic.twitter.com/vWzLhVgNod
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey https://t.co/ZV946w4iDS pic.twitter.com/CIw0te1z8o
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 11, 2023
Monetary Policy
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The U.S. is expanding its security commitment to Japan into space, promising to deter attacks on the country’s satellites https://t.co/C4OZDDLxGV
— WSJ China Real Time (@ChinaRealTime) January 12, 2023
#FAA Expects Departures to Resume at Other Airports at 9 AM ET. https://t.co/PfFqabCa9g
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 11, 2023
Asia
Economic Indicators and Prospects
CAAM sees the Chinese automobile market will witness around 3% growth in 2023 with the help of stimulative policies and relief of chip shortages.#China #automobile #vehicle https://t.co/ZfEz7kXOnq
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 12, 2023
China’s factory-gate prices fell more than expected in December, while consumer inflation ticked up after the sudden end to Covid Zero https://t.co/snkYlmeS81
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 12, 2023
China Growth Seen Rebounding To 4.9% In 2023, More Stimulus On The Cards – RTRS Poll https://t.co/VnXWbJOaFo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
China Moves To Repair Ties With Australia By Lifting Coal Ban – WSJ https://t.co/a04TRmP4Ky
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
China visa freeze disrupts Japanese business planshttps://t.co/G4r1F6HBEa
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) January 11, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Pessimism Among UK Consumers Perks Up As Inflation Peaks – RTRS https://t.co/FwrKLsyVnD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Housing
UK Construction Sector Stagnates As Interest Rates Bite – RTRS https://t.co/nXteqFs1NZ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes As Inflation Falls https://t.co/KNNFHVqPlW
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) January 11, 2023
The ECB will deliver big increases in borrowing costs at its upcoming meetings, Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez De Cos said https://t.co/f5qBfyRRVg
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 11, 2023
ECB Long-Term Loan Repayments From Banks Seen Slowing This Month – BBG https://t.co/cpINsgExiD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Energy
UK Energy Bills Forecast To Fall Further As Gas Prices Tumble – Telegraph https://t.co/c7VGqtbjSa
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Reviving ties with the European Union has moved up on Switzerland's political to-do list https://t.co/4s8HSQnjOZ
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 11, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
JPMORGAN: “Global inflation is tracking an average 0.25% m/m gain over the last three months, less than half of its mid-2022 peaks.”#CPI pic.twitter.com/c8RLqX7rke
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 11, 2023
Global Foreign Reserves Dwindle As Countries Counter Dollar's Rise – Nikkei https://t.co/QuhNOK7jx3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 11, 2023