Economic Indicators and Prospects
Barclays Raises U.S. GDP 1st-Qtr Forecast, Sees Mild Recession From Q2 – RTRS https://t.co/bygxa0363o
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
*Focus on Inflation
US Inflation Set To Have Fallen To Slowest Pace In More Than A Year – FT https://t.co/rkPAEOAPzJ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
1/6
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) January 11, 2023
Quick 🧵on tomorrow's CPI
The graphic below says the consensus outlook for Dec 2022 month-over-month CPI is -0.1% … deflation!
Deflation is expected and already priced in. pic.twitter.com/sFxeTAvED3
apparently it’s an internal forecast tool… pic.twitter.com/BlOux705AJ
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) January 11, 2023
Some good news ahead of tomorrow's US inflation print: businesses' inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest level since Summer 2021.
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) January 11, 2023
Data from the Atlanta Fed shows that companies, on average, now expect their unit costs to grow by less than 3% over the next year. pic.twitter.com/t2eVQAxupD
Housing
🇺🇸 #Housing #Inflation | With Demand Declining, #Rents Fell Again in December, Says Yardi Matrix
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
*Rents fell 0.2% MoM in December and 0.6% in the fourth quarter.
*YoY growth declined by 80pbs to 6.2% last month, the lowest level since May 2021.https://t.co/oleL8UAQzl pic.twitter.com/WzGmSCM1R3
Lawler: Freddie Mac “National” Home Price Index Down Again in November; Rents Continued to Slidehttps://t.co/RLVzb07wIC
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 11, 2023
Lawler: “Best guess” is that the national apartment rent index will decline by about 4% in 2023.
US House Starts (& GDP) thru 2022 held up DESPITE slumps in:
— Douglas Orr, CFA (@EquitOrr) January 12, 2023
a) Affordability⬇ /Mort⬆
b) Foot Traffic⬇
Why?
A. Backlogs⬆ in 21
KB Homes result => NEW Orders ⬇⬇
Q/Q to Nov-22 saw -80% fall in Net Orders
Lower Backlogs will soon reveal very weak “underlying demand” pic.twitter.com/vWzLhVgNod
🇺🇸 #Inflation, ‘uncertain economy’ are making home buyers more cautious, KB Home says – MarketWatch
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
*Gross orders for the quarter hit 2,169 units, ⬇ 47% on-year.
*Cancellation rates as a percentage of gross orders ⬆ 68%, compared to 13% a year ago.https://t.co/WjsfmSgzci
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey https://t.co/ZV946w4iDS pic.twitter.com/CIw0te1z8o
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 11, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 #Fed President Backs Slowdown as Support Mounts for Smaller Rate Move – NYThttps://t.co/fE6cMbTCcC
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The U.S. is expanding its security commitment to Japan into space, promising to deter attacks on the country’s satellites https://t.co/C4OZDDLxGV
— WSJ China Real Time (@ChinaRealTime) January 12, 2023
#FAA Expects Departures to Resume at Other Airports at 9 AM ET. https://t.co/PfFqabCa9g
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 11, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
CAAM sees the Chinese automobile market will witness around 3% growth in 2023 with the help of stimulative policies and relief of chip shortages.#China #automobile #vehicle https://t.co/ZfEz7kXOnq
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 12, 2023
JUST IN:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 12, 2023
China December
Annual CPI +1.8% [Est. +1.8% Prev. +1.6%]
Monthly CPI 0% [Est. -0.1% Prev. -0.2%]
Annual PPI -0.7% [Est. -0.1% Prev. -1.3%]#CPI #China #Inflation #PPI #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ thread pic.twitter.com/6aPBGvrz6S
China’s factory-gate prices fell more than expected in December, while consumer inflation ticked up after the sudden end to Covid Zero https://t.co/snkYlmeS81
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 12, 2023
🇨🇳 #China’s household lending, including consumption loans and mortgages, is set to recover especially in the second half and support stable economic growth, Shanghai Securities News reports Thursday, citing analysts.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/PBUvH02smz
China Growth Seen Rebounding To 4.9% In 2023, More Stimulus On The Cards – RTRS Poll https://t.co/VnXWbJOaFo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 Chinese bank deposits exceed loans by $6.5tn as caution prevails – Nikkeihttps://t.co/sdRyQXmjGF
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
🇯🇵 #Japan | BOJ to review easing side-effects next week – Yomiuri
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
*Link (Japanese): https://t.co/pmRDlGVEPI
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
China Moves To Repair Ties With Australia By Lifting Coal Ban – WSJ https://t.co/a04TRmP4Ky
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
China visa freeze disrupts Japanese business planshttps://t.co/G4r1F6HBEa
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) January 11, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇪🇺 #ECB RELEASES MONTHLY SURVEY OF CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
*ECB SAYS CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DECLINED
*ECB: CONSUMERS SEE INFLATION AT 5% OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS
*ECB: CONSUMERS SEE INFLATION AT 2.9% IN 3 YEARS
Pessimism Among UK Consumers Perks Up As Inflation Peaks – RTRS https://t.co/FwrKLsyVnD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Housing
UK Construction Sector Stagnates As Interest Rates Bite – RTRS https://t.co/nXteqFs1NZ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes As Inflation Falls https://t.co/KNNFHVqPlW
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) January 11, 2023
The ECB will deliver big increases in borrowing costs at its upcoming meetings, Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez De Cos said https://t.co/f5qBfyRRVg
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 11, 2023
📰 ECB needs significant rate hikes at coming meetings, Rehn says
— PiQ-News (@PiQNews) January 11, 2023
Powered by https://t.co/PtyRcaV0eThttps://t.co/sAUW5jUUFu
ECB Long-Term Loan Repayments From Banks Seen Slowing This Month – BBG https://t.co/cpINsgExiD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
🇬🇧 *TRADERS BET BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATES WILL PEAK BELOW 4.5% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇩🇪 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Germany’s Scholz Backs Joint EU Funding to Counter US Aid – Bloomberghttps://t.co/QcnphiHHtP
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 12, 2023
Energy
UK Energy Bills Forecast To Fall Further As Gas Prices Tumble – Telegraph https://t.co/c7VGqtbjSa
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 12, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Reviving ties with the European Union has moved up on Switzerland's political to-do list https://t.co/4s8HSQnjOZ
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 11, 2023
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 2 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 9, 2023
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI
🌎 Central Bankers Speak At Riksbank Event
🇯🇵 🇺🇸 Kishida-Biden Meeting
🇺🇸 🇹🇼 U.S. Sends Economic Delegation to Taipei
…https://t.co/Xli1c8zO1T
JPMORGAN: “Global inflation is tracking an average 0.25% m/m gain over the last three months, less than half of its mid-2022 peaks.”#CPI pic.twitter.com/c8RLqX7rke
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 11, 2023
Global Foreign Reserves Dwindle As Countries Counter Dollar's Rise – Nikkei https://t.co/QuhNOK7jx3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 11, 2023