🇺🇸 Money Market Funds Get Biggest Cash Inflow Since Early 2020 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/iZSq1XaB3s pic.twitter.com/sUKAEba7Ip

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 18, 2023

Cash has become an alternative but no equity capitulation thus far

Cumulative flows by asset class since Dec ‘19 pic.twitter.com/1uygFc7TDE

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 19, 2023

Funds Face Massacre On Record Short US Rates Position – RTRS https://t.co/MmfrtLfmuC

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

With these headlines crossing now, this tweet just got a little more interesting:

*BIDEN OFFICIALS TALKED WITH BUFFETT IN RECENT DAYS: SOURCES

*SENIOR BIDEN OFFICIALS IN TOUCH WITH BUFFETT ON BANKS https://t.co/910vMpgpGB

— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) March 18, 2023

*WARREN BUFFETT IN DISCUSSIONS WITH BIDEN OFFICIALS ON BANKING CRISIS https://t.co/iqaiMvKOQY

🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/g9N2IupvJl

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) March 19, 2023

🇺🇸 #SVB | First Citizens Weighing Takeover of Silicon Valley Bank – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UXMSZX0EY6

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

In January 2019, the Fed issued a warning to Silicon Valley Bank over its risk-management systems, according to a presentation circulated last year to employees of its VC arm

Deposits at SVB would swell from $49 billion in 2018 to $189 billion in 2021 https://t.co/R1z5QNOngT

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 19, 2023

🇺🇸 Midsize US Banks Ask #FDIC to Insure Deposits for Two Years – Bloomberghttps://t.co/jMlobmSfeR

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

SCOOP: Banking regulators have been given evidence as many as 25 mid sized banks must be merged/face elimination because of balance sheet issues. Large banks @jpmorgan would be natural buyers if govt relaxes deposit limits. By contrast 1200 banks went away during thrift crisis

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) March 19, 2023

🇺🇸 Smaller Banks’ Critical Role in Economy Means Distress Raises #Recession Risks – WSJ
*Regional and local banks account for nearly 40% of all lendinghttps://t.co/BrSDHKTRUd pic.twitter.com/mCLHLGrj5p

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

If the Fed does not contain the regional bank collapse, there will be another great depression.

Small/medium banks account for 50% of US commercial and industrial lending, 60% of residential real estate lending, 80% of commercial real estate lending, and 45% of consumer lending pic.twitter.com/wzTMHxSnXI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2023

SCOOP: Banking regulators have been given evidence as many as 25 mid sized banks must be merged/face elimination because of balance sheet issues. Large banks @jpmorgan would be natural buyers if govt relaxes deposit limits. By contrast 1200 banks went away during thrift crisis

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) March 19, 2023

Industrial Production Unchanged in February https://t.co/dCwdPViGXC pic.twitter.com/stkY3gZ1zq

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 17, 2023

🇺🇸 US Year-Ahead #Inflation Expectations Drop to Lowest Since 2021 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/R78PcDHNVs pic.twitter.com/PAEqEK1jtS

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 17, 2023

The average gas price in the US is 84 cents (-20%) lower than a year ago. Barring another spike higher, this YoY decline (along with other commodities) should be a big factor in pushing down the March US inflation rate (YoY CPI). pic.twitter.com/1RugfCoUHC

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 18, 2023

🇺🇸 *US FEB. LEADING INDICATOR FALLS 0.3% M/M; EST. -0.3% (11th straight contraction) – BBG
*On a YoY basis, the index fell 6.5% (largest decline since June 2020)
*Usually, this level is associated with #recession in the coming months. pic.twitter.com/vx9PkRW7iG

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 17, 2023

The US is racing to avoid recession. What matters for growth (black) is the credit impulse (blue), the 2nd derivative of credit. Assume we can stabilize credit and avoid an outright credit crunch. The 2nd derivative still turns very negative. US recession risk is up sharply… pic.twitter.com/9AbFIyI5Yp

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) March 19, 2023

Trucking continues to show signs of weakening. Volumes have slowed since the start of the month, with no signs of firming.

The goods economy looks to be teetering after a promising start at the beginning of the year. 1/ pic.twitter.com/g2oC1pdB3A

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) March 19, 2023

APOLLO: “Quantifying the impact of tighter financial conditions plus tighter lending standards, we estimate that the events this past week correspond to a 1.5% increase in the Fed funds rate.” [Slok] pic.twitter.com/ra3WtjFch6

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 18, 2023

Current market expectations for the path of the Fed Funds Rate…
-Mar 22, 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00%
-Pause
-Rate cuts start in June 2023 w/ a Fund Funds Rate below 4% at the end of 2023 and below 3% at the end of 2024. pic.twitter.com/hUoZsMB7Xn

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 18, 2023

1/2
This coming FOMC meeting is the most uncertain in the "forward guidance" era. An explanation.
—-
The Fed released the first FOMC statement in February 1994 (under Greenspan). This began the era of "forward guidance," or telling the market what to expect.

When Bernanke… https://t.co/8b1SbdPScY pic.twitter.com/w3uDmOVNKn

— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) March 18, 2023

Heading into this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed has a tough decision.

A few charts framing the dilemma:

Recessions begin when residential construction payrolls decline 8-10% from the previous cycle peak.

At present, construction payrolls are at cycle highs.@3F_Research pic.twitter.com/eddo0NhnUn

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) March 19, 2023

🇺🇸 🛢 Explorers in US shale fields have reduced drilling activity to levels not seen since early 2020, when a worldwide oil glut and the economic devastation wreaked by the Covid-19 pandemic crippled the industry – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/iFLTtrTUOI

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 18, 2023

The White House spokesman, John #Kirby, stated that the #US is against the #Chinese call for a #ceasefire in Ukraine, as it would lead to the #consolidation of Russian conquest and provide the opportunity to prepare for another #attack. https://t.co/n37QkO73Zj

— ANews (@anews) March 18, 2023

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *US NOT ENGAGED IN LOGISTICS OF SETTING UP BIDEN-XI CALL: KIRBY – BBG

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 17, 2023

🌎 🇨🇭 Wipeout of Risky #CreditSuisse Bonds Upends $275 Billion Market – Bloomberghttps://t.co/yZym8hHE8P

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🌎 🇭🇰 #HSBC Tumbles in #HongKong as AT1 Debt Selloff Weighs on #Banks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/AzQ7XXjGIQhttps://t.co/Ij0vWwobh0 pic.twitter.com/9szlnIm6aI

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🌎 Riskiest #Bonds for Some Asian Banks Fall by Record on #CreditSuisse Deal – Bloomberghttps://t.co/2yVpj1OJb6 pic.twitter.com/5aG5kpTiaX

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

– China Sets 1-Year Loan Prime Rate At 3.65% VS 3.65% A Month Earlier
– China Sets 5-Year Loan Prime Rate At 4.30% VS 4.30% A Month Earlier

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

🇨🇳 #China Needs Household Stimulus to Boost Recovery: #PBOC Adviser – Bloomberg
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/Aofy74I30Xhttps://t.co/DRDMICZCyG

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

– BoJ Summary: BoJ Must Be Mindful Of Risk Inflation May Overshoot Expectations
– There Is A Chance Higher-Than-Expected Inflation May Be Sustained As Companies Keep Raising Prices, Wages

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2023

🇯🇵 #Japan planning to add JPY2T to #inflation relief measures – Yomiuri
*Link (Japanese): https://t.co/OkX0cBIqJZ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🇨🇳 🇷🇺 #Weekahead | Xi to Visit #Russia for First Time Since Invasion of #Ukraine – Bloomberghttps://t.co/IVkiBjTsbt

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 #Taiwan Chip Exports to #China Sputter on Tensions, Falling Demand – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aqyDzcr5gf pic.twitter.com/DJr0rUHMWa

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

North Korea fires ballistic missile as U.S.-South Korean drills go on https://t.co/3k309hHkCW pic.twitter.com/RxpKHr0bJ6

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 19, 2023

Chinese President #XiJinping will deliver a strong message of support for #VladimirPutin with his visit to Moscow this week. https://t.co/71knxdLkn8

— BQ Prime (@bqprime) March 19, 2023

🇨🇭 #UBS to Buy #CreditSuisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis – Bloomberghttps://t.co/f9JB7aSuwa

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

🇨🇭 Holders of $17bn of #CreditSuisse #bonds wiped out under #UBS takeover – FThttps://t.co/L01ztMVUra

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🇨🇭 #UBS Takeover Of #CreditSuisse: Six Key Points – NDTVhttps://t.co/DqW5GeHjgW

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🌎#Fed and Global Central Banks Move to Boost Dollar Funding – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4gqudJ1CZx

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

Statement by ECB President Christine Lagarde https://t.co/eOjI4tBRPz pic.twitter.com/3KeymqdfVr

— European Central Bank (@ecb) March 19, 2023

Andy Vermaut shares:Japan, Germany agree to carefully monitor markets, coordinate as needed https://t.co/FYPfeUN9GN Thank you. pic.twitter.com/ms6DOhmDT6

— Andy Vermaut (@AndyVermaut) March 18, 2023

Good morning from #Germany where German banks have direct financial exposure to #Switzerland's banks of at least $11.5bn. Thus, there are likely to be some casualties affected by the wipeout of Credit Suisse CoCo bonds of the volume of $17bn. pic.twitter.com/pFvyIotrtp

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 20, 2023

🇫🇷 *BANK OF #FRANCE CUTS 2023 #INFLATION FORECAST TO 5.4% VS 6% – BBG
*BANK OF FRANCE RAISES 2023 UNDERLYING INFLATION TO 4.3% VS 4%
*BANK OF FRANCE RAISES 2023 GDP FORECAST TO 0.6% VS 0.3%

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

ECB’s Villeroy: France Should Avoid Recession – Le Monde
-French Banks Are Solidhttps://t.co/FhD9cQEG2M

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

German PPI (M/M) Feb: -0.3% (exp -1.4%; prev -1.0%)
– PPI (Y/Y) Feb: 15.8% (exp 14.5%; prev 17.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

Rightmove: UK Housing Market Stabilises After "Mini-Budget" Rates Spike – RTRS https://t.co/Y4510DO0oy

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

British Manufacturing Output Rebounds, Outlook Remains Bleak – RTRS https://t.co/A1uvub6z1l

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

ECB’s hawks regroup to speculate rate-hiking isn’t done yet https://t.co/dpJNcZoiUq via @CraigStirling pic.twitter.com/3eVrAalgXv

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 17, 2023

🇪🇺 #ECB’s Holzmann Expects Deposit Rate to Peak Above 4% – Bloomberghttps://t.co/vYSswYwhnb pic.twitter.com/frlLm3IAEC

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

🇪🇺 Euro Area #Inflation Still Too Fast, #ECB’s Rehn Tells Kauppalehti
*Link (Finnish): https://t.co/Dh2jyeJSOi

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

🇪🇺 #ECB ISN’T DONE ON RATE HIKES IF BASELINE HOLDS UP, KAZAKS SAYS – BBG
*ECB'S KAZAKS SAYS #INFLATION STILL IS VERY HIGH
*KAZAKS: ECB NEARING POINT WHERE THERE'S RISK OF HIKING TOO MUCH
*ECB'S KAZAKS: EASIER TO REPAIR HIKING TOO MUCH THAN TOO LITTLE

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🇩🇪 #German energy regulator cannot rule out #gas emergency for 2023/24 winter – Reutershttps://t.co/ij9WJrGVt4

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

France’s FNME-CGT union calls on workers in the electricity, gas and broader energy sector to pursue open-ended strikes to protest President Emmanuel Macron’s reform of the pension system https://t.co/z4Ovl8k0ai

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 18, 2023

Macron Faces Showdown Vote Today On Pensions Reform – The Times https://t.co/RyocK4CnEQ

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2023

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin visits #Crimea on anniversary of its annexation from #Ukraine – Reutershttps://t.co/NlRgu3OSlV

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 19, 2023

EU member states are set to reach an agreement that would provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery over the next year https://t.co/wJtgDEK4iE

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2023

⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 12 (2023) ⚠

🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇨🇭 #BOE, #FED and #SNB Meetings
🇪🇺 #ECB Speakers
🇨🇳 🇷🇺 Xi to Visit #Russia
🌎 March PMIs
🇨🇭 Fallout from #UBS Takeover on #CreditSuisse
…https://t.co/saHjC9qgDe

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2023

🌎 UK, Russia Only Major Economies to Face #Recession, #OECD Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/YCcxIWl4Sm pic.twitter.com/medAS8idrY

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 17, 2023

Global Container Freight Rates (cost of 40′ Containers) are now lower than they were in January 2020…

Jan 17, 2020: $1,581 (pre-covid rate)
Sep 10, 2021: $11,109 (peak rate)
Mar 17, 2023: $1,463 (-87% from peak)

Simply incredible. pic.twitter.com/hkNESXSXEm

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 18, 2023

Global Central Bank Update:
-Denmark hiked rates for the 6th time in the last year, 50 bps increase to 2.60%.
-Argentina hiked rates by another 300 bps to 78% after its inflation rate moved above 100% for the first time since 1991. pic.twitter.com/la6GxpeqeJ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 18, 2023