🇺🇸 Bond Yields Plunge Most Since 2008 as Traders Rethink #Fed Path – Bloomberg
*US 2-year yield falls nearly 30bps on year-end rate-cut wagerhttps://t.co/Wn9CBrf6Ya pic.twitter.com/pVXcjPxB4z

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 12, 2023

Human nature never changes.

This week, traders finally stopped calling a new Bull Market every 2 minutes ("Bull Marketing").

At the real bottom, no one will care about Stocks.

Another big opportunity may be coming…

Until then, patience is critical – stay focused. pic.twitter.com/TOQTFCdCpo

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 11, 2023

GS Prime: "Friday the total notional executed across our US equities franchise ended with a -6% sell skew vs a 30d avg of a -1.65% sell skew. Financials ended with a -16.15% sell skew…The US Banks L/S ratio now stands at 1.47, hitting its lowest level in 8+ years. " pic.twitter.com/Lc0mCYsaOB

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 13, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank was the 2nd largest bank failure in US history. Only Washington Mutual was bigger… pic.twitter.com/cXnaQiQ8TN

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 10, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank experienced $42 BILLION in withdrawals at the close of business yesterday (that's basically 1/4 of the bank's $161B in deposits at last regulatory filing)—and had a negative cash balance of nearly $1 BILLION pic.twitter.com/UkopTNw6Ys

— Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 (@JosephPolitano) March 10, 2023

1/14$SVB fails two days after $SI fails. Why now? What was the catalyst?

tl:dr Their deposit rates are too low, and there is an effective run on the entire “low yielding” banking system.

The fix is simple – raise deposit rates to attract capital. But this hurts profits.

🧵

— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) March 10, 2023

A couple of SVB comments: (the 2nd I haven't seen)

First, SVB failed due to interest rate risk, not asset default risk (like during the GFC). We've seen this story before, and systemic risk is unlikely.
1/

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 11, 2023

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank highlighted the risks posed by "underwater" long duration bonds — particularly when those bonds funded with short-term liabilities.

Who else in the global economy holds a lot of underwater bonds?

Asian insurers and policy banks …

1/ pic.twitter.com/Y3FViq39G8

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) March 10, 2023

Forget about the losses on securities, the true cause of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse is "cash burn":

Money-losing companies who banked at SVB were taking money out to fund operations.

They required constant inflows of venture capital funding which stopped, and…
(1/4) pic.twitter.com/5Ybdm93r7g

— Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) March 11, 2023

SVB is/was not like the others because a prudent bank hedges interest rate risks. SVB did not.

Chart from JPAM / Michael Cembalest pic.twitter.com/qfm6MbM0Oz

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) March 11, 2023

🇺🇸 U.S. government steps in and says people with funds deposited at #SVB will be able to access their money – CNBChttps://t.co/TvAzOCXV0I

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

NEW:

*Signature Bank has been closed

*All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected

*Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected

*New Fed 13(3) facility announced with $25 billion from ESF to backstop bank deposits pic.twitter.com/LKipIRMg1T

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2023

🇺🇸 Yellen Says Bank System Resilient Despite #SVB Collapse – Bloomberghttps://t.co/MX41gVmzKm

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 11, 2023

February Employment Report: 311 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate https://t.co/AdoAJC5F8U pic.twitter.com/EQlbkufFGF

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 10, 2023

Comments on February Employment Report https://t.co/sLyMfuZ5HC

Wages growth was strong last year in the March through July period, so year-over-year wage growth will likely slow over the next few months. pic.twitter.com/9Y0loSfZ0b

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) March 10, 2023

🇺🇸 Falling Survey-Response Rates Undermine Economic Data – WSJ
*The declines skew government measures of inflation and the job markethttps://t.co/Ep7uLxH6x7

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 10, 2023

🇺🇸 #Housing #Inflation | Rental Market Tracker: Rents Drop To Lowest Level In A Year – Redfin
*The median U.S. asking #rent rose 1.7% YoY to $1,937 in February—the smallest increase in nearly two years and the lowest level in a year.
*Rents fell 0.3% MoMhttps://t.co/IcwIO8g2YL pic.twitter.com/X5jHeG9d2n

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 11, 2023

🇺🇸 Top #Fed official signals openness to reverting to half-point rate rise – FThttps://t.co/Pc3J3G85nW

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 11, 2023

Goldman Sachs: Left Unchanged Expectation That Fed Will Deliver 25Bp Hikes In May, June, And July And Now Expect A 5.25-5.5% Terminal Rate
– Sees Considerable Uncertainty About Rate Hike Path Beyond March

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 13, 2023

JP Morgan: “If they indeed have used the right tool to address financial contagion risks (time will tell), then they can also use the right tool to continue to address inflation risks—higher interest rates. So, we continue to look for a 25bp hike at next week’s meeting.”

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 13, 2023

President Joe Biden will prevent or limit oil drilling in 16 million acres of Alaska and the Arctic Ocean, an administration official announced. But a decision on opening up the so-called Willow drilling project in the Arctic tundra has not yet been made. https://t.co/5DC46oCenQ

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 12, 2023

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US Apparel Companies Can’t See a Future Without #China – Bloomberghttps://t.co/u8AxDQce7C pic.twitter.com/8Z7YQDdl2e

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 11, 2023

US-EU seek deal on minerals used in EVs in race for green investments https://t.co/VxPBXo1fdR via @jendeben @justinsink @europressos pic.twitter.com/VnhaVknnfo

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 11, 2023

Iran says it agrees prisoner swap with US, Washington denies claim https://t.co/aLEzb73Dwx pic.twitter.com/RecQgVmQbs

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 12, 2023

Over a dozen Chinese-based firms say they have minimal exposure to SVB https://t.co/Cxu2NUDJxi pic.twitter.com/c4yFeleBd6

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 13, 2023

"Fate of #SVB is a huge concern in #China, 🌏’s 2nd-largest VC market after Silicon Valley, bc SVB was among the 1st financial institutions to cater to Chinese startups when traditional banks shunned them…It established its 1st 🇨🇳 arm 2 decades ago"https://t.co/4Cml2XtNV0

— China Beige Book (@ChinaBeigeBook) March 10, 2023

🔵 CHINA'S FEBRUARY CREDIT GROWS FASTER THAN EXPECTED, SUPPORTING RECOVERY

– Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/Rt3O3JPqJp pic.twitter.com/97wxzQ8WnY

— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) March 10, 2023

🇨🇳 Chinese Firms’ Hiring Intentions Hit Eight-Year High: S&P Survey – Bloomberghttps://t.co/6nulaB9BEM pic.twitter.com/cxTmDcur39

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

🇨🇳 #China’s Economic Rebound to Maintain Momentum in 2Q – Shanghai Securities News
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/qdAdRuXYMn

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

Global trade tracker shows early signs of a China’s rebound https://t.co/c0jlAGT2cB pic.twitter.com/lB1axaMf8a

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 11, 2023

Hong Kong Demographics challenge the decline in the Younger Female population. The 20-24 age group peaked in 2006; the 25-29 peaked in 2011 & 30-34 peaked in 2015.
The steep decline came from 2019 to 2022
20-24: -25.86%
25-29: -13.62%
30-34: -16.93% pic.twitter.com/8tXcwwN8D0

— Sunil Beri (@sunchartist) March 12, 2023

🇰🇷 #SouthKorea | Exports down 16 pct during first 10 days of March – Yonhaphttps://t.co/K0db5PVS3W

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

Japan Q1 business sentiment falls even furtherhttps://t.co/2AsFTGlal9

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) March 13, 2023

Chinese #property developers slide in HK.
Latest data from PBOC showed that new bank loans to the household sector, mostly mortgage loans, tumbled in Feb from prior month.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/n3ReLBLUmF

— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) March 13, 2023

Austria to cancel property tax for first-time home buyers https://t.co/vfQh8AJvKA via @martoneder pic.twitter.com/S7M3Eyn1H1

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 11, 2023

🇨🇳 #China chooses continuity, retaining central bank chief, finance minister – Reutershttps://t.co/EzgfZi1PzM

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 12, 2023

BoJ Pivot Pressure To Ease As SVB Collapse Drags US Yields Lower – BBGhttps://t.co/v7yMJ91Px8

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 13, 2023

NZIER Consensus Forecasts Show Much Weaker Growth In 2024 – March 2023 – Full Reporthttps://t.co/HWja7ZwErh

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 12, 2023

🇨🇳 #China’s Premier Downplays GDP Growth, Courts Private Firms – Bloomberghttps://t.co/nE1mPvpdYo

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | Xi Tells Priorities as New Term Starts, Li to Speak: NPC Update – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SjkwDo9w4l

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

List of key officials of China's State Council. pic.twitter.com/EChOo4hQKB

— Sreemoy Talukdar (@sreemoytalukdar) March 12, 2023

North Korea decides on war deterrence measures, KCNA says https://t.co/fAgS6ZuDSY pic.twitter.com/yJZnialo3X

— Reuters World (@ReutersWorld) March 12, 2023

🇮🇷 🇸🇦 #Iran and #SaudiArabia Reach Deal to Restore Diplomatic Ties – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZBVUuOlCHC

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 10, 2023

It’s being prepared as a Plan B if the government fails to find a buyer for the bank, sources say https://t.co/yZDYoTdYrR

— Bloomberg (@business) March 12, 2023

NEW:
Silicon Valley Bank's UK subsidiary has been sold to HSBC.
Depositors will be fully protected.
Will be announced by @bankofengland and @hmtreasury imminently.
Biggest firesale of a UK Bank since the financial crisis

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) March 13, 2023

French and European supervisory authorities will continue to monitor the developments of the situation https://t.co/uU5AKcZDfq

— Bloomberg (@business) March 12, 2023

🇩🇪 #Germany Turns Page on Economic Abyss With Sign of Green Shoots – Bloomberghttps://t.co/GTKuzo9aA0 pic.twitter.com/o0tzTigWWu

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 11, 2023

Norway’s statistics office sees growth returning to normal pace https://t.co/FbpAQuEtWi pic.twitter.com/oEMR1zvNfF

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 12, 2023

A lost decade worse than Japan’s threatens to change the UK forever https://t.co/7rX37GYCOG via @tomelleryrees @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/LuKeHMCc6a

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 12, 2023

ECB Gathers Amid Growing Dissonance Over Trajectory For Rates – BBG https://t.co/PRPBEppEo5

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 13, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1634584494932910080

🇪🇺 EU Removes Nuclear Power From Clean Industry Draft, Ansa Says https://t.co/fgv48ITdmi

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 12, 2023

French nuclear revival hits trouble as new reactor defects found https://t.co/vXJaK43x3P via @FrancoisDeBeaup @CeliaBergin @_ToddGillespie pic.twitter.com/fmWSMo3sna

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 11, 2023

French Senate adopted President Emmanuel Macron's unpopular pension reform plan, with 195 votes for and 112 votes against, a bill whose key measure is raising the retirement age by two years to 64.https://t.co/HRyEEUpTvR

But the outcome still seems uncertain in lower chamber.

— Harsh Madhusudan (@harshmadhusudan) March 12, 2023

German union calls for strikes on Monday at Berlin, Hamburg airports https://t.co/fsa8LX5HmM pic.twitter.com/OQVDuy1mnS

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 11, 2023

📰 UK Carmakers Warn US, EU Green Deals Threaten Domestic Industry

Powered by https://t.co/PtyRcaVy4rhttps://t.co/qAJd3Vag53

— PiQ-News (@PiQNews) March 13, 2023

⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 11 (2023) ⚠

🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting
🇺🇸 🌎 #SVB Fallout
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI
🇬🇧 UK Budget
🇨🇳 Chinese Data
🌎 #OECD Outlook
…https://t.co/wjVpO2uKyU

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 13, 2023

🌎 Playing Catch-Up – Bloomberghttps://t.co/o8EU8JCJX2 pic.twitter.com/KVxRilxEfM

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 12, 2023

Global Container Freight Rates (40' Containers)…
Jan 17, 2020: $1,581 (pre-covid rate)
Sep 10, 2021: $11,109 (peak rate)
Mar 10, 2022: $1,568 (-86% from peak)
Simply incredible. pic.twitter.com/dGdb1Fafzx

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 11, 2023