Morning Brief: Focus on FOMC Meeting, EU Gas Supply From Gazprom Eases
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 Q2 GDP: The expected contribution from residential investment will be more negative than expected ⬇https://t.co/FsfysFalJB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 26, 2022
Housing
🇺🇸 Homebuilders are boosting incentives as they suddenly struggle to sell homes – CNBChttps://t.co/ULY8YCLpm3
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
🇺🇸 US New-Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast to Two-Year Low – Bloombegr
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 26, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/8A7NqPEXpX pic.twitter.com/ZEkxs1Zdki
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 #Fed Chair Jerome Powell should acknowledge that economic situation has weakened and downside risks to growth have increased since the June meeting.https://t.co/AC3sBnYrKy
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
🇺🇸 Wells Fargo's Leading Index is sharply lower at -7.2% even though the Coincident Index is still signalling expansion at +2.6%.
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) July 26, 2022
Since 1985, whenever the Leading Index has contracted as much as it is now, recession has been inevitable. pic.twitter.com/rs6xEOhy7K
🇺🇸 Powell’s Bond Market #Recession Indicator Is Sending a Warning – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 26, 2022
*The difference between rates on where 3-month bills are now and where they will be in 18 months ⬇ ~95 bps in July, the biggest monthly decline in data starting in 1996 ⚠https://t.co/WSQaAEgu8n
Politics
🇺🇸 U.S. to sell additional 20 million barrels of #oil from strategic reserve – Reutershttps://t.co/mnj4LvZhzf
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
🇺🇸 Another move to limit damages at midterms ⬇#Biden Considers New Pause on Paying Back Student Loans, $10,000 Relief – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
*Move aimed at appealing to voters under 30 before midtermshttps://t.co/nXTRYJgZxd
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #Biden Will Speak With Xi on Thursday as US-#China Ties Worsen – Bloomberghttps://t.co/sQicmNiPqa
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
Asia
Covid-19
Mainland #China reports 79 local symptomatic cases and 525 asymptomatic cases on July 26.🔽
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) July 27, 2022
—#Gansu 12 + 219🔽#Guangxi 20 + 236🔽#Sichuan 19 + 9🔽#Shandong 1 + 20🔼#Shanghai 2 + 14🔽#Guangdong 2 + 4🔽#Henan 1 + 7
—
Source: NHC https://t.co/eaKANfOUYt pic.twitter.com/KZPtGPOKQg
#Wuhan's Jiangxia district conducts a three-day temporary lockdown in the main urban area from 4:00 am July 27.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) July 27, 2022
The district reports 4 asymptomatic Covid-19 cases on July 26. 1.05 million residents live in this district. pic.twitter.com/kcOv9zp4HN
🇨🇳 #China | Wuhan Locks Down 1 Million Residents in Echo of Pandemic’s Start – Bloomberghttps://t.co/iESdfP6lyS
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Korean consumer confidence just COLLAPSED. Gauge saw second biggest drop in last 10 years. pic.twitter.com/aUjqIJr74M
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) July 26, 2022
🇰🇷 #SouthKorea’s Consumer Confidence Drops by Most Since Pandemic – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
*Outlook for economy drops sharply to weakest level since 2008.https://t.co/ZtJfso35eO
Monetary Policy
China’s Borrowing Cost Slump Shows Limits Of PBoC Policy Easing – BBG https://t.co/QG3MtSDezV
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 26, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇹🇼 Taiwan hones invasion response amid China’s threats over Pelosi trip
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) July 27, 2022
The drills, part of a five-day program of civil and military preparedness exercises.https://t.co/XaoAviSaMa
Seoul’s ‘Kill Chain’ plans to counter nuclear North may raise eyebrows in China https://t.co/NHsTmfw84c
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) July 27, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇩🇪 #GERMANY AUG. GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -30.6; EST. -28.9 pic.twitter.com/5RDgRgQGFr
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
🇬🇧 UK Retailers Report Prices Rising at Sharpest Pace Since 2005 – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 27, 2022
*The BRC said food inflation rose 7% from a year ago, steeper than the 5.6% increase in June and marking the biggest leap since 2009 ⚠ https://t.co/1bbISsaIMOhttps://t.co/lqXRk7JLAk
⚠️ Italy business and consumer confidence morale fall in July as political instability returns
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) July 27, 2022
– Reuters via https://t.co/6vj5FWMV9H pic.twitter.com/tf9e8ZzZLt
Goldman sees euro-area recession in the 2nd half of this year https://t.co/xhIlVhBwjV pic.twitter.com/6K1kEGfH5N
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 27, 2022
Fiscal Policy
Macron’s revised budget to fight French inflation gets house approval https://t.co/KNliZOZnEs via @SamyAdghirni @Newsbaum_ pic.twitter.com/N7MYBhPYQQ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 27, 2022
Energy
Germany cuts electric-vehicle subsidies to target smaller cars https://t.co/Ti5oH2Jdz5 via @ArneDelfs pic.twitter.com/oaMBFMQuVb
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 27, 2022
⚠️ Nord Stream 1 gas nominations, physical flows fall – operator website
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) July 27, 2022
– Reuters via https://t.co/6vj5FWMV9H pic.twitter.com/uaycRS14Py
⚠️ GERMAN GOVT SPOKESPERSON: GERMAN GOVERNMENT ACKNOWLEDGES FURTHER REDUCTION OF GAS SUPPLIES FROM GAZPROM, CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ARE NOT BEING ADHERED TO
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) July 27, 2022
– Reuters via https://t.co/6vj5FWMV9H
Politics
Italy’s rightist alliance is struggling to agree on who should become prime minister if the bloc wins the election in September https://t.co/N5II5W9R7K via @chiaraalbanese @aspeciale pic.twitter.com/ovnmfzTwiH
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 27, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Europe is faking solidarity, and Putin knows it: @andreaskluth https://t.co/ceb0BKrl2J via @opinion pic.twitter.com/AiC0EJdh8f
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 27, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 30 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 25, 2022
🇺🇸 #FOMC Meeting
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 U.S. and Eurozone GDP
🇪🇺 #Eurozone CPI
🇪🇺 EU Emergency Meeting on #Energy
…https://t.co/BK5y2KcsJ1
🌎 #IMF CUTS WORLD 2022 GDP GROWTH EST. TO 3.2% FROM APRIL'S 3.6%
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 26, 2022
➡ Forecasts remain very optimistic and even out of date
➡ More downgrades to come at next updatehttps://t.co/Xghks9nYHF
Global Growth Headed Down As Inflation Surge To Endure – RTRS https://t.co/sCbtDI6cqp
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 27, 2022
⚠️ Credit Suisse || Recession probability rising
— PiQ-Commentary (@PiQCommentary) July 27, 2022
"Our models estimate that the probability of the US being in recession 6 and 12 months ahead is approximately 25%.
In the euro area our models estimate a 49% chance of recession 12 months ahead and 52% 6 months ahead." pic.twitter.com/gG4tO9fxt5