Morning Brief: Focus on Fed, EU Readies New Sanctions on Russia and Belarus
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
April Vehicles Sales increased to 14.29 million SAAR https://t.co/xxhWodE3EI pic.twitter.com/MTLqWpERoD
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 4, 2022
BIDEN WILL TALK AT 2PM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH, JOBS, AND THE DEFICIT.
— Breaking News | FinancialJuice (@Financialjuice1) May 4, 2022
Housing
🇺🇸 #Housing | Month-over-month #rent growth picks back up with 0.9% increase; up 16.3% year-over-year – Apartment List
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/M4eDZq9zEn pic.twitter.com/SjDEVaOJKl
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 For people who believe that #Biden didn't influence #Fed ⬇
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
“Had clarity been provided, I think the Fed would have acted earlier,” Quarles said. But Biden ⚠ “didn’t do that for a number of months,” he said.https://t.co/KbS5NM7tjt
🇺🇸 #Fed to Tighten With Big Hike, Asset Runoff: Decision-Day Guide – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/JZagIe8ALI pic.twitter.com/Q8lnhHqq7e
BoC’s Rogers: With Economy Starting To Overheat, We Can't Let Demand Get Too Far Ahead Of Supply Or We Risk Adding Further To Inflation https://t.co/7OzBgGpY2E
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 3, 2022
Fiscal Policy
President Joe Biden is considering limiting his program to relieve student debt to Americans earning less than $125,000, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said https://t.co/hDWDjs54XK
— Bloomberg (@business) May 3, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The Biden administration is taking the first step toward a review of tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese imports that’s required to keep them from beginning to automatically expire in July https://t.co/9jiw7646TU
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 3, 2022
Manage your expectations. “A source familiar with plans for the China strategy…[said]…the contents covered publicly by Blinken were not expected to be very detailed & would largely be a compilation of statements the admin has already made about China.”https://t.co/CeESyYkwJ6
— Derek J. Grossman (@DerekJGrossman) May 4, 2022
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 It will add pressure on the U.S. to reach a deal with #Iran.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Otherwise, #gasoline prices will keep ⬆, supporting #inflation and biden approval rating will collaspse further ahead of midterms.
*The economy is already close to #recession.https://t.co/9ZeRO2ZRxU
Asia
Covid-19
🇨🇳 #China | #Beijing to postpone school reopening for at least one week after labour day holiday – Reutershttps://t.co/CqLcKJBT3z
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
New Zealand’s unemployment rate held at a record low in the first three months of the year amid a squeeze in labor supply that’s stoking wages and inflation expectations https://t.co/o11naFbqoa
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 4, 2022
Australian retail sales jumped for a third consecutive month to hit a record, highlighting the economy’s strong underlying momentum https://t.co/c35ZUhho9q
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 4, 2022
Housing
The biggest investors in China’s junk property bonds, including BlackRock, reduced their exposure for the first time in months. Here's the latest on Chinese developers https://t.co/aaOOKNXsFz
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 4, 2022
Monetary Policy
New Zealand’s central bank warns a “sharp correction" in home prices is possible as it tackles inflation https://t.co/4oO5RyeYUO
— Bloomberg Australia (@BloombergAU) May 3, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇨🇳 🇷🇺 #China’s independent refiners start buying Russian #oil at steep discounts – FT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/GwqHbjT6ez pic.twitter.com/07Lc51Zgc2
Australian wine exports slumped as an effective blockade by China overwhelmed efforts by producers to find buyers in other markets https://t.co/4kAh5XcFTz
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 4, 2022
North Korea fires an unidentified projectile toward waters off its eastern coast, the South Korean military says, little more than a month after testing an intercontinental ballistic missile https://t.co/X9QwvXiaSY
— Bloomberg (@business) May 4, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Pay for financial services workers in the U.K. has surged at double the pace for the rest of the economy since the pandemic began, widening inequality at a time when consumer spending power is being squeezed https://t.co/jQreoRbfZG
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 4, 2022
Monetary Policy
ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel says it’s time for policy makers to take action to tame inflation, and that an interest-rate hike might come as early as July https://t.co/pHRwyacdpW
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 3, 2022
Energy
EU to unveil plan to replace two-thirds of Russian gas this year https://t.co/Nruo8rpwIT
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢🇮🇹 (@staunovo) May 3, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Russia is trying to annex the parts of Ukraine it occupies, shifting from its initial goal of ousting the government https://t.co/CFD3oxWRq1
— Bloomberg (@business) May 4, 2022
🇬🇧 Johnson’s Brexit Pains Mount With Crucial #NorthernIreland #Vote – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/ZawLdvZ0bs pic.twitter.com/5HQNx2uCYS
Focus on Sanctions
🇪🇺 🇧🇾 EU PROPOSES SANCTIONS ON MAIN #BELARUS POTASH COMPANIES – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
The EU has proposed sanctioning Belarus’s main potash producer, Belaruskali OAO, and its export arm, Belarusian Potash Co., as part of a sixth package of measures member states will discuss on Wednesday.
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 *VON DER LEYEN: TO PRESENT 6TH EU #RUSSIA PACKAGE SANCTIONS TODAY – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*VON DER LEYEN: TO LIST PEOPLE INVOLVED IN BUCHA, ARIUPOL CRIMES
*EU'S VON DER LEYEN: WILL DE-SWIFT SBERBANK, 2 OTHER MAJOR BANKS
*VON DER LEYEN: BANNING THREE RUSSIAN STATE-OWNED BROADCASTERS
Finally, we now propose a ban on Russian oil.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) May 4, 2022
Let´s be clear: it will not be easy.
But we simply have to work on it.
We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion.
To maximise pressure on Russia, while minimizing the impact on our economies pic.twitter.com/fH2wuKN5t2
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 *VON DER LEYEN PROPOSES 'ORDERLY' EU BAN ON RUSSIAN #OIL – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*EU'S VON DER LEYEN: BAN WILL INCLUDE SEABORNE, PIPELINE OIL
*EU BAN WOULD HALT CRUDE BUYING WITHIN 6 MONTHS
*EU BAN WOULD HALT REFINED FUELS BY END OF YEAR
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 #EU Readies #Oil Sanctions as #Moscow Tightens Grip – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZOpjTPiwU1
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Borrell says EU aims to pass new #Russia sanctions at next Foreign Affairs Council meeting – Reuters
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*The Council has meetings scheduled for May 10 and May 16 later this month.https://t.co/NA1jwhGNld
Putin Signs Decree on New Retaliatory Sanctions against Westhttps://t.co/8lSlkXm8dJ pic.twitter.com/RRb4AVKMok
— Tracy Shuchart (my friends call me Chi) (@chigrl) May 3, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
🌎 🇨🇳 Global #manufacturing output falls for first time in 22 months led by sharp downturn in #China – Markit
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 4, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/JHzcEqf1c1 pic.twitter.com/081Higf1Go
Goldman's global GDP proxy hit lowest since May 2021.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2022
Fed hiking into a global recession means the coming QE will be historic. pic.twitter.com/RF7eSMLLuM