🇺🇸 #SPX | A Big Driver of This Year's Stock Rally: #ArtificialIntelligence – WSJhttps://t.co/FI7V6jYGxH

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 13, 2023

The Russell-to-NASDAQ 100 ratio is back to COVID crash lows pic.twitter.com/wnuP2KiZVo

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 14, 2023

According to Goldman Sachs, CTAs could become net sellers of up to $276B of $ES_F exposure on any downdraft pic.twitter.com/cf0jQO0oYA

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 13, 2023

During prior debt ceiling debacles, we often have volatility rise, particularly when the government is shut down pic.twitter.com/K9pMeNFujg

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 12, 2023

🇺🇸 #HedgeFund Trade With a History of Blowups Is Back Again – Bloomberg
*Firms aim to profit from gap between Treasury futures, bonds
*Strategy worsened liquidity crunch in 2020 as bets went awryhttps://t.co/hOzqhJxWEx pic.twitter.com/XXUoIFkIE1

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 13, 2023

Using *seasonally adjusted* data, deposit levels have been fairly stable through April and the first few days of May for small banks (institutions outside the Top 25) following the big outflow during a two-week period in mid-March https://t.co/kgGcHKwWre pic.twitter.com/hvqEkioCGp

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 12, 2023

By one measure, the three banks that have failed this year held more assets than all 25 banks that failed in 2008 (1st chart)

Why that's a potentially very misleading statistic (2nd chart) because it obscures other big 2008 interventions

Via @JoshZumbrun https://t.co/F9Ig1aZuen pic.twitter.com/0VGcmiZdE5

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 12, 2023

🇺🇸 US Consumer Long-Term #Inflation Expectations Hit 12-Year High – Bloomberg
*The consumer sentiment index slid to 57.7, the lowest since November and weaker than all forecasts, from 63.5 last month.https://t.co/o2eHoL2Zxz pic.twitter.com/VtJfOx9Jci

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 12, 2023

University of Michigan consumer sentiment is at a level last seen during:

– 2008 Financial Crisis
– 2011 Debt Crisis pic.twitter.com/czbCikhb2o

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 12, 2023

There Goes The US Consumer: Card Data Reveals First Drop In Household Spending In Two Years As Upper-Income Wages Tumble, Unemployment Benefits Soar https://t.co/17SLZTVlQX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2023

Tender rejections have dropped to an all-time low of 2.53%. The previous record low was set during the extreme COVID lockdowns at 2.57.

Things are dire for spot-market trucking firms.

What is a tender rejection?

A tender rejection measures the balance of supply and demand in… pic.twitter.com/8QnyA3vKfL

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) May 12, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1657793682723012608

This is worse than the 2008 Financial Crisis

Home price as a multiple of income is at the highest level EVER seen pic.twitter.com/FGmduOoLR6

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 12, 2023

🇺🇸 Fed is sure that rents will come down & disregard them. True short-term but could turn out to be dangerous medium-term assumption

Market-based indicators (Zillow & Apartment list) have dropped but note Median Asking Rent surging, which was a leading indicator past years pic.twitter.com/TOdtMlFBwt

— Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) May 11, 2023

Currently no rent being paid on 20% of US office space.

Getting worse? Think of how many companies are riding out expensive leases with no intention of renewing, plans to downsize sq ft.

Regional banks have much of the exposure to this market.

Ht @JoeConsorti pic.twitter.com/OhHkyEDJPd

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) May 11, 2023

Commercial and industrial loans just had one of their worst 2-month contractions in history.

The only other times we have experienced a similar problem was during the three last economic recessions.

While the annual growth of business loans remains positive, it’s crucial to… pic.twitter.com/je4N7dWBTb

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May 15, 2023

Fed policy on right track, but inflation still too high, officials say https://t.co/ykThvdz9h7 pic.twitter.com/413tq7Ihsf

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 13, 2023

The Federal Reserve sees signs that it can avoid triggering a recession in the US even as it hiked interest rates aggressively, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says https://t.co/SzDnApOsuy

— Bloomberg (@business) May 13, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1657778545874042885

🇺🇸 U.S. at "significant risk" of default in first two weeks of June, CBO says – Axioshttps://t.co/nvtIVaQAI7
*CBO link: https://t.co/Nb13yT1l0V

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 13, 2023

🇺🇸 #Treasury Has Just $88 Billion of Measures Left to Avoid Debt Cap – Bloomberghttps://t.co/EO2AK8VrId

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 13, 2023

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1657960482366447617

Trump's takeover of the Republican party helped him rewrite delegate voting rules. That'll give him a head start in 2024 https://t.co/p90ICHF9qn

— Bloomberg (@business) May 14, 2023

Global investors seeking to trade China’s reopening have a new strategic tool: onshore interest-rate swaps that had an annual turnover of $3 trillion last year https://t.co/E0EQvPZS93

— Bloomberg (@business) May 15, 2023

Japan's wholesale inflation slows, may ease pressure on BOJ https://t.co/wqqOg6mazF pic.twitter.com/TukZY8oKSI

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 15, 2023

China 1-Year Medium Term Lending Facility Rate: 2.75% (est 2.75%; prev 2.75%)
– 1-Year Medium Term Lending Facilities Volume: 125B (est 100B; prev 170B)
– PBoC Inject Net 25B Yuan Via MLF

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 15, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | #PBOC Extends Cash Support in May After Credit Growth Slumped – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8qPVXeaknL pic.twitter.com/VyHFUAvbLQ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023

Thai pro-democracy parties' resounding victory in a parliamentary vote have set up the biggest challenge to the royalist-backed establishment since the military seized power in a coup nearly a decade ago. https://t.co/t0Pij7QN5y

— The Japan Times (@japantimes) May 15, 2023

Australia trade minister: Agreement on barley remains on track. MOFCOM minister Wang accepted visit to Australia. Chinese investments being approved in Australia now. Agree to step up dialogue with China to resolve issues. Australia to decide on investment on national interest.

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 12, 2023

#China will send its special representative to #Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia, from Monday, to find a solution to the war in Ukraine, said China’s foreign ministry on Friday.

— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) May 12, 2023

The Italian Embassy in China continues to accept individual and group visa applications for Italy from Chinese citizens. The rumors circulating in the past few hours regarding visas for Chinese tourist groups are unfounded.-Embassy's WeChat post 🇨🇳🇮🇹

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 13, 2023

– Germany Wholesale Price Index M/M Apr: -0.4% (prev 0.2%)
– Germany Wholesale Price Index Y/Y Apr: -0.5% (prev 2.0%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 15, 2023

🇪🇺 My proxies and regional surveys suggest that #Eurozone industrial production should surprise downward on a MoM basis.

*Bloomberg consensus:
-2.7%e v +1.5% prior

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023

Renters outside of London are paying over £1,000 a month for the first time https://t.co/2i6OSHCYgs via @_DamianShepherd pic.twitter.com/TEloUYQfwn

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 15, 2023

ECB seen keeping rates high for longer amid sticky core prices https://t.co/AwMPxY1F8C via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/jrwiRMwGXd

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 15, 2023

The ECB is in the final leg of its historic cycle of interest-rate increases, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos https://t.co/iIildY5Lad

— Bloomberg (@business) May 14, 2023

Macron wants to keep cutting taxes despite French deficit warnings https://t.co/OEMO2CR6It via @Newsbaum_ pic.twitter.com/ksmmWjcyNo

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 14, 2023

Fresh gilt-sale blockbuster is coming as UK lures pension funds https://t.co/0M4sKzL1yD via @highisland pic.twitter.com/rRnODoduVo

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 14, 2023

🇹🇷 #Turkey Heads for Runoff Ballot as Erdogan Has Lead and Momentum – Bloomberghttps://t.co/eMQwjakKSt pic.twitter.com/JQIxNQ5rlV

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023

Erdogan Leads In Tight Race For Turkish Presidency – FThttps://t.co/hgc4O7qYvI

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 15, 2023

🇩🇪 #Germany | Scholz's Social Democrats win Bremen state vote, Greens slump – Reutershttps://t.co/ljAYyH8Qez

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023

Macron asks business to ‘choose France’ as he seeks agenda reset https://t.co/2Px0GntBI4 via @whorobin pic.twitter.com/IUnMuDno6T

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 14, 2023

UK to begin trade talks with Switzerland to boost services https://t.co/LpQN03cgrP via @EllenAMilligan pic.twitter.com/vGcex2Z4UB

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 15, 2023

French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a pause in European Union climate regulation isn’t a U-turn on green ambitions, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire says https://t.co/dBIe2YRJAB

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 14, 2023

⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 20 (2023) ⚠

🇬🇧 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 #BOE, #ECB and #Fed Speakers
🇪🇺 EC Spring Forecasts
🌎 #G7 Leaders Summit
🇺🇸 US Data
🇺🇸 #Debt Ceiling Talks
…https://t.co/XPrF6IUR3o

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 15, 2023

The G-7’s ease in agreeing on a statement after 3 days of talks in Japan stands in stark contrast with the discord seen at the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in India, which ended without the usual communique https://t.co/Ofc6CHwbUi via @MalcolmScott8 pic.twitter.com/0jkAsKx1Fy

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 14, 2023