Morning Brief: Debt Ceiling Talks; China’s Consumer Recovery Under Scrutiny; ECB Set To Step Down To 25bps Move
Americas
Markets
Share buybacks remain quite popular, though slightly lower than what we saw last year up to April 21st.
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 26, 2023
Source: Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/ZlTQev5kWE
*Focus on banks
Sources tell @davidfaber that the next few days are crucial for $FRC, with the White House, Fed & U.S. Treasury considering plans that could repair damage suffered in early-March banking crisis.
— Squawk on the Street (@SquawkStreet) April 25, 2023
Its Q1 report saw deposits fall over $100 billion: a 40% decline. pic.twitter.com/TuKo7ENHPs
NEW: First Republic Bank is exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 billion of long-dated securities and mortgages as part of a broader rescue plan https://t.co/9oxeXdhvGw
— Bloomberg (@business) April 25, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
New orders fell from -11 in March to -20 in April's Richmond Fed Survey, which continues to show a contraction of manufacturing activity.
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 25, 2023
– Backlogs fell from -14 to -30
– Prices paid rose from 6.24 to 7.57
Smells a bit stagflationary pic.twitter.com/runck72n3w
Philly Fed April non-manufacturing index -22.8 vs -12.8 priorhttps://t.co/9NKiMNA29Z
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) April 25, 2023
Housing
New Home Sales Increase to 683,000 Annual Rate in March; Likely New Home Sales will be up YoY in Mid-2023 https://t.co/nOiolU8nJO pic.twitter.com/8QelGjoMFA
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 25, 2023
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Declines Moderated" to 2.0% year-over-year increase in Februaryhttps://t.co/LI8MllRxMT pic.twitter.com/WZQdeMYxYX
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 25, 2023
Fiscal Policy
EXCLUSIVE: The Republican proposal would cut $4 billion for low-income students, resulting in some 60,000 fewer teachers, says the Education Department https://t.co/lxRfzUjYNU
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) April 25, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Asia
Markets
Even as Warren Buffett’s blessing and buying by foreign investors helps drives outperformance in Japanese stocks this year, retail investors are turning increasingly bearish https://t.co/P9HWo0YLF1
— Bloomberg (@business) April 26, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Several Chinese cities' car rental bookings for May Day holiday exceeded 2019-levels – Shenzhou Car Rentalhttps://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/JDfA7D6yTM
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) April 26, 2023
Australia’s core inflation eased in the first three months of 2023, lending weight to the RBA's expectation that prices will steadily come down https://t.co/jDeKTRti9w
— Bloomberg (@business) April 26, 2023
South Korean consumers' inflation expectations fall to 11-month low https://t.co/CTI001ge79 pic.twitter.com/SE93x0pNpK
— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) April 25, 2023
Housing
New Zealand’s housing downturn may be tempered by an easing of mortgage lending restrictions https://t.co/gP85mBBerq
— Bloomberg (@business) April 26, 2023
Monetary Policy
New BOJ Chief's First Task May Be To Tweak Forward Guidance – RTRS https://t.co/zcnGGhSdF3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 26, 2023
China Guides Banks To Further Cut Deposit Rates – RTRS Sources https://t.co/lzo8mOGlxD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 24, 2023
#PBOC injects 95 bn yuan liquidity to banking system via 7-day reverse repo on Wed, while 32 bn yuan reverse repo expires, leaving net 63 bn yuan injection. https://t.co/yHKocs7uL2
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) April 26, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
XI TELLS ZELENSKIY CHINA TO SEND REPRESENTATIVE TO UKRAINE: TV#CHINA #UKRAINE
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 26, 2023
1/6
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) April 26, 2023
Important article: "China's cabinet on Tuesday issued a plan to stabilise its vital trade sector."
Almost every week we're seeing new measures and exhortations to support Chinese exports. Beijing is very worried about weak global demand.https://t.co/WgG78gD59H
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
German Consumer Morale Picks Up On Income Expectations – GfK – RTRS https://t.co/xZVtfqPlG3
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 26, 2023
Housing
Sweden’s house price slide set to continue in Riksbank forecast https://t.co/51vZaxYwNm via @ottummelas pic.twitter.com/Tv3n0gEQ9J
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 26, 2023
CRE
Monetary Policy
Reuters poll: ECB set to step down to 25 bps move on May 4, at least one more expected https://t.co/Tm15AmzbR1 pic.twitter.com/nvyUECqBbQ
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 25, 2023
BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill says Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re worse off https://t.co/pGCC6FDC0D via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/2vuYsiiIKU
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 25, 2023
Fiscal Policy
EU Countries Should Focus On Net Expenditure, Cut Debt Over 4 Years -EU Executive – RTRS https://t.co/mlMclMIw9J
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 26, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
#OOTT Western Price Caps Cut Into Russian Oil Revenue – FT https://t.co/mU6fiQ3Pwo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 26, 2023