Morning Brief: Companies Ease Off on Buybacks; Oil Rises Closer to 95$; U.K. Rents Surge at Record Pace
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
Happy Friday! The S&P 500 buyback blackout begins today as 50% of $SPX companies will likely have entered their blackout window. pic.twitter.com/VB1gNwEExi
— Markets & Mayhem 🤖 (@Mayhem4Markets) September 15, 2023
There has been only ONE occasion in the last 45 years when the Dollar Index had a 10-week win streak. That was in 2014. The other possibly happens this week. pic.twitter.com/2643OU9ajB
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) September 18, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
University of Michigan consumer survey:
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 15, 2023
Year-ahead inflation expectations in Sept fell to 3.1%, the lowest levels since early 2021
Five-year-ahead inflation expectations also ticked down and are near pre-pandemic levelshttps://t.co/crQL4DjRRU pic.twitter.com/tgwq1ehKYo
Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in August https://t.co/jPKffxHpjl pic.twitter.com/yBES4OaW3I
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 15, 2023
🇺🇸 US retailer holiday hiring to drop to levels last seen in 2008 – Reutershttps://t.co/xDIPg5FksP
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 16, 2023
🇺🇸 US holiday sales set for slowest year since 2018 as consumers turn frugal, report says – Reutershttps://t.co/tbnjFk88G5
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 16, 2023
Morgan Stanley says the US is in a disinflationary process, lower their inflation forecasthttps://t.co/9NflDCi1d7
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 18, 2023
Strikes
As someone who avidly reads newspapers, if you believe that a labor strike involving thousands of auto workers is just an isolated event, you are overlooking the bigger picture.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 16, 2023
It's actually a much larger and more complex issue, deeply rooted in a structural inflationary… pic.twitter.com/ljc7PYG0nC
US Auto Workers strike continues. A 21% pay increase was made and rejected.https://t.co/B94C2eQCHs
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 17, 2023
Housing
🇺🇸 #Housing | Home Purchases Fell Through at the Highest Rate in Nearly a Year in August – Redfinhttps://t.co/TMgE6666Q0 pic.twitter.com/8dww4gEF0Q
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 16, 2023
According to Apollo, housing affordability just hit a new all time low.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 17, 2023
Houses now are ~30% LESS affordable than they were in 2008, the largest housing bubble in history.
The median monthly house payment is about to pass $3,000 for the first time in history.
All as prices are… pic.twitter.com/SBIabYtpN9
Monetary Policy
Goldman Sachs: Fed Unlikely To Raise Rates In November – Fox Businesshttps://t.co/OWAxiiLgYQ
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 17, 2023
Weekend – Goldman Sachs strategists expect a Federal Reserve spoof at this week's meetinghttps://t.co/Kig80eyvVM
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 17, 2023
🇺🇸 #Weekahead | #Fed’s Higher-for-Longer Mantra Has Doubters in #Bond Market – Bloomberghttps://t.co/htyKEqWUmA pic.twitter.com/Y1vHgEZ56t
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 17, 2023
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Expectedhttps://t.co/nbR23wYc6Q
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 17, 2023
Most analysts expect there will be no change to FOMC policy at this meeting, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
Dot-plot projections are looming large given expectations the Fed will keep rates on hold this week https://t.co/9XdbyKRRtX
— Bloomberg (@business) September 17, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇺🇸 McCarthy Demands 8% Spending Cut, Border Wall to Avert Shutdown – Bloomberghttps://t.co/SDLMtzXjov
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
NEWS: Critical House GOP factions reach temporary spending deal to avoid shutdown https://t.co/NgE1gU0Pf2
— Kadia Goba (@kadiagoba) September 17, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Zelenskiy to Meet US Senators With Ukraine Aid Under Threat – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UZrfzzcmLz
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
On September 16-17
— Moritz Rudolf (@MoritzRudolf) September 17, 2023
▪️ Jake Sullivan (🇺🇸 Nat. Security Advisor) met with
▪️ Wang Yi (CCP Politburo Member, Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission, and 🇨🇳 Foreign Minister)
in Malta:
▪️What did they talk about?
▪️Comparing the 🇨🇳&🇺🇸 readouts:
🧵 pic.twitter.com/wRgRTB8kYW
Asia
Markets
China's stock benchmark falls to its lowest level this year https://t.co/n6OEkKQAji
— Bloomberg (@business) September 18, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Hotel bookings in #Beijing, #Hangzhou, #Wuhan, #Shanghai, #Chongqing, #Chengdu and #Guangzhou for the National Day holiday grew over 3 times compared to the same period in 2019, CCTV cites data from booking platforms.#China #tourism #OOTT
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 17, 2023
🇨🇳 #China | According to Airportia data, air traffic remains strong, still up more than 170% YoY.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 17, 2023
*Link: https://t.co/caXp67Jqn6 pic.twitter.com/5yhbx6QUrB
🇨🇳 #China's booming travel consumption drives up car rental orders – Xinhuahttps://t.co/Y8XS6Veo2x
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 17, 2023
NZIER Consensus Forecasts Point To Subdued Growth For The Two Years Ahead – September 2023https://t.co/gR8dOrd4bt
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2023
Singapore August exports fall more than expectedhttps://t.co/tgUpEJ7qVr
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 18, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 #Housing | Chinese shadow bank exposed to troubled #property developers – FThttps://t.co/YjRAYkCHf3 pic.twitter.com/u8EoAFiVNR
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
⚡#China #Evergrande slid 22% in Hong Kong on Monday as Shenzhen police detained some staff at China Evergrande Group's wealth management unit, suggesting a new investigation that could add to the property giant's woes. pic.twitter.com/gxxyWxhPnq
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 18, 2023
Country Garden faces two more tests Monday: an initial deadline to pay dollar bond interest and the end of creditor voting on its request to extend payment on a yuan note https://t.co/d6HkRce9hD
— Bloomberg (@business) September 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
⚡PBOC conducts 184 billion yuan of the 7-day reverse repo and 60 billion yuan of the 14-day reverse repo on Monday.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 18, 2023
The net injection comes to 29 billion yuan as 215 billion yuan comes due today. #China #liquidity https://t.co/3XEoyKeLF7
Energy
Chevron’s Australian LNG Plant Resumes Full Output Amid Strikes – BBGhttps://t.co/GRYFjM7PH7
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
-Assad will visit China in few day
— Ibrahim Hamidi ابراهيم حميدي (@ibrahimhamidi) September 16, 2023
– First meeting with xi Jinping
– First visit since 2011
– last time he was in 🇨🇳 in 2005
– First ever visit for 🇸🇾 president
– 🇨🇳FM visited 🇸🇾 in 2021
– Asaad’s official visit to 🇷🇺last March pic.twitter.com/BYEc9BqrTQ
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇬🇧 UK #Rents Surge at Record Pace as Home Sellers Lift Asking Prices – Bloomberghttps://t.co/HZOY2wIeIt pic.twitter.com/9veXP0O1tR
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
UK Residential Rents Rise At Record Pace In August – FThttps://t.co/4Ern3Lti95
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 17, 2023
UK data – Rightmove House Price Index +0.4% m/m (prior -1.9%)https://t.co/ifYAkRvYT2
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
🇪🇺 #ECB’s Holzmann Says Latest Interest Rate Hike Might Not Be Last – Bloomberghttps://t.co/UiUew5mMUG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 16, 2023
It’s too soon to exclude another ECB hike, the head of Latvia’s central bank says https://t.co/R9kTW3ca4b
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 17, 2023
🇪🇺 Traders Bet #ECB Cuts Are Coming Despite Lagarde’s Pushback – Bloomberghttps://t.co/D63G5tq9Ng pic.twitter.com/EXcXtUnN1N
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 17, 2023
Lagarde Seized ECB Colleagues’ Handsets To Prevent Leaks – FFhttps://t.co/8G15tjhlaF
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 17, 2023
European Central Bank speakers on Monday include de Guindos and Panettahttps://t.co/gCzuFUgHMO
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) September 18, 2023
Goldman Sachs Cuts BoE Terminal Rate View To 5.5% – MarketScreenerhttps://t.co/HvRte6yfbc
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) September 18, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Greece plans to double its budget backstop for natural disasters linked to climate change by increasing a levy on accommodations, mostly affecting luxury hotel stays https://t.co/RBzaI7CtFK
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 16, 2023
Energy
The change to fuel-sale rules would suspend a 1963 retail law https://t.co/hi5j0VDhjp
— Bloomberg (@business) September 17, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Europe must cut down on its dependence with China, German Foreign Minister Baerbock says https://t.co/2xBi1XXsBt via @ArneDelfs @annmarie pic.twitter.com/gBiRz8EnDw
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 18, 2023
Von der Leyen pledges EU support to Italy to curb a flood of migrants https://t.co/OGaXfuHo5s via @ssirletti pic.twitter.com/W2FMBSsHJg
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) September 17, 2023
President Erdogan says Turkey could “part ways” with the EU over its membership bid in the wake of a report that criticized the country for democratic shortcomings https://t.co/rvEbwlCLTf
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 17, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
🛢 #Oil Pushes Closer to $95 a Barrel as Global Market Tightens Up – Bloomberghttps://t.co/WnDFrePssd pic.twitter.com/fWAk4WTLVX
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
🌎 The World Is Struggling to Make Enough #Diesel – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 18, 2023
*US prices jumped above $140 to the highest ever for this time of year on Thursday. Europe’s equivalent soared 60% since summer ⚠https://t.co/AHvVrk0ARO pic.twitter.com/9QNdUkhjBv
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has informed the Biden administration of its decision to halt all talks of normalizing ties with Israel on Sunday, the Arab news outlet Elaph cited an Israeli official in the Prime Minister's Office as saying.
— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) September 17, 2023
Read more >>https://t.co/1CgonRtSVI
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here