Time for our weekly update on how traders are positioned across assets..

Are you leaning the same way as the crowd? A thread

1/n

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) January 14, 2023

🇺🇸 US Consumers’ Year-Ahead Inflation Views Drop to Lowest Since April 2021 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ZgZQqiRvLg pic.twitter.com/BzkNSFGEw6

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 14, 2023

🇺🇸 Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See #Recession This Year
*Forecasters put 61% probability of recession in next 12 monthshttps://t.co/gCZ8SFADb4

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 15, 2023

🇺🇸 #Fed #Inflation | An update on CPI prospects ⚠

*Leading indicators suggest CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could ⬇ close to 3% in June 2023
*Therefore, Bloomberg consensus for 2023 CPI (+4%) should be revised ⬇ soon.

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 13, 2023

UBS on the coming February revision to the CPI calculation:

"The new approach to weighting inflation will use consumer spending from 2021…. US inflation will start to give more emphasis to the prices that are weakening, heightening downside risks to consumer price inflation."

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 14, 2023

In 2023, @GoldmanSachs expects double-digit home price declines in markets like Austin (-15.6%), San Fran (-13.7%), San Diego (-13.4%), Phoenix (-12.9%) & Denver (-11%)

While its forecast has prices rising in Baltimore (+0.5%) and Miami (+0.8%) in '23.https://t.co/5CXPj4rrdw pic.twitter.com/zivaqyfWIm

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) January 15, 2023

🇺🇸 Treasury’s Debt-Ceiling Maneuvers to Hamper Fed’s Tightening Efforts – Bloomberghttps://t.co/0houLpvCAZ pic.twitter.com/6Rp2rvnVkW

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 15, 2023

🇺🇸 #Bond Investors Are at a Crossroads With #Fed Pause In Sight – Bloomberghttps://t.co/y62ABKh7SF pic.twitter.com/pdwFCMy9XJ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 15, 2023

🇺🇸 Yellen Says US to Take Extraordinary Steps to Avert a Default – Bloomberghttps://t.co/M11s1iIhGN

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 14, 2023

Disclosures this week about sensitive documents have embarrassed and undermined the president https://t.co/yqKwByvSxB

— Bloomberg (@business) January 14, 2023

What the end of the US shale revolution would mean for the world https://t.co/r0IZd53O42

— FT for Schools (@ft4s) January 16, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | Nearly All of #Beijing to Get #Covid by End of January, Study Finds – Bloomberghttps://t.co/vA2HX3SLom

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 14, 2023

🇨🇳 Chinese Provinces Mostly Target Growth of 5% or More in 2023 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Vp1DN6QQOX pic.twitter.com/m9kSlXyPAp

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

🇨🇳 Half of #China Provinces Eye 5.5% Plus GDP Growth This Year – Shanghai Securities News
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/QfwGUglMK8

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

🇨🇳 #China | #Beijing targets 2023 GDP growth of over 4.5 pct – Xinhuahttps://t.co/Sa4tNCjJYQ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 15, 2023

🇲🇴 🇨🇳 Hotel bookings in #Macau’s major casinos are full for the week of Lunar New Year, according to the hotels’ websites, Ming Pao reports. Rooms at hotels owned by Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Melco are all sold out.https://t.co/zcSwH2OTsv

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

Australian employment growth outpaced every G-7 economy in the six months through November, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said https://t.co/xErb3UTvYC

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 16, 2023

🇨🇳 #China Home Prices Slump After #Covid Outbreaks Stifle Rescue – Bloomberghttps://t.co/j7KxqfeMaP pic.twitter.com/QVeV2EmhMW

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

🇸🇬 #Singapore Home Sales Slump to 14-Year Low on Supply Crunch – Bloomberghttps://t.co/j6qj7A6UwY pic.twitter.com/fTb1cyTfsU

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

🇨🇳 #China Injects Less Cash Than Expected Before Lunar Holidays – Bloomberghttps://t.co/hRaJtNp7ux pic.twitter.com/bHSSNayHjE

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

🇯🇵 #Japan | Traders Eye Chance of More #BOJ Tweaks With ‘Pandora’s Box Open’ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/USmguIvezw pic.twitter.com/NiaOLBa2ek

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

Bank of Japan meeting next week is gonna be liiiiittttttt 🔥 Rates markets betting something’s gonna go.

Check out 10-year swaps. pic.twitter.com/gmGVLVlh80

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) January 15, 2023

Economists Say BoJ's Amamiya Is Top Governor Candidate, Tightening This Week Unlikely – RTRS https://t.co/UPkezuplZw

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

BoJ Should Keep Stimulus After December Tweaks, LDP Member Says – BBG https://t.co/4RUvV81ssS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

JUST IN:
China partially relaxes visa suspension for some travelers from Japan and South Korea. – Kyodo News
🇨🇳🇯🇵🇰🇷 https://t.co/9U2mFSdBPy

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 16, 2023

Hong Kong and mainland China will raise land crossing quota to 65,000 people from 50,000 for upcoming holidays.
HK and mainland will also double to quota through Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge to 2,000. 🇨🇳🇭🇰

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) January 14, 2023

China chip imports fall for the first time in 18 years as US tightens control over supply https://t.co/VzHKtAMfSD

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 16, 2023

German Wholesale Price Index (M/M) Dec: -1.6% (prev -0.9%)
-Wholesale Price Index (Y/Y) Dec: 12.8% (prev 14.9%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

🇬🇧 UK’s Poor Have Seen the Highest #Rent Increases in Last Decade – Bloomberghttps://t.co/DfxytjM1W2 pic.twitter.com/Guutn8Bfdv

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

Asking Prices For UK Homes Rise After ‘Mini-Budget’ Shock, Rightmove Says – RTRS https://t.co/i5nLLBjcZ7

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

ECB Interest Rates Seen Hitting Peak Of 3.25% Before Cut In July – BBG https://t.co/UjVIuawvL3

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

🇪🇺 Euro area banks will repay another €63bn in TLTROs on 25 January, a smaller amount than the previous large repayments.
– total TLTRO-III allotment = €2339bn
– early repayments = €1028bn
– redemptions = €54bn
– outstanding = €1255bn pic.twitter.com/aFF4JjeMfh

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) January 13, 2023

Here's the breakdown by TLTRO-III operations. Small differences between allotments, repayments and redemptions (as at 25 January) coming from small forced repayments and rounding errors. pic.twitter.com/kuPkhCEiV0

— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) January 13, 2023

Turkey’s central bank is removing reserve requirements for lira deposits with longer maturities, part of an ongoing effort to encourage savings and lending in the local currency https://t.co/f5IGEhAXg6

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 16, 2023

Germany Sees EUR12Bln Financing Gap In Budget Plan – Handelsblatt https://t.co/hjKn9zLNqS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) January 16, 2023

Germany’s debt dilemma tempts finance minister into bending rules https://t.co/qY33xKhN7z via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/auOosl0msu

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 16, 2023

🇪🇺 #Gas Rollercoaster Throws #Europe’s #Inflation Outlook Wide Open – Bloomberghttps://t.co/huQOHRg7jQ pic.twitter.com/oX6SAh7tMl

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 15, 2023

NEW: There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol.

— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) January 16, 2023

The UK and EU are optimistic, but there are many tricky areas left to be resolved before a durable solution is found. Here are the outstanding issues, ranked in order of difficulty https://t.co/FSu2jjCMkb

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 15, 2023

⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 3 (2023) ⚠

🇨🇭 🌎 #Davos #WEF
🇯🇵 #BOJ Meeting
🇪🇺 #ECB Minutes
🇺🇸 #FOMC Beige Book
🇺🇸 U.S. Data
🇨🇳 #China GDP
🇨🇳 Chinese New #LunarYear Starts
…https://t.co/nFTFy2FYEz

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) January 16, 2023

The World Economic Forum is back in Davos and so are we. The New Economy Daily will be in the Alps and deliver updates on the main talking points and chatter from the party circuit. Subscribe here: https://t.co/Btb6kOaUvu #WEF23 pic.twitter.com/6Tg1LgFGlD

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 15, 2023