Morning Brief: Chinese Growth Pickup Seen in 2H23, Focus on U.K. Budget, EZ Inflation Revised Downward
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1 Percent in October https://t.co/wutRTcLL8R pic.twitter.com/xeBnys9dzy
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2022
Retail Sales Increased 1.3% in Octoberhttps://t.co/P8iXI6oG8j pic.twitter.com/R6jnIO5VTw
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2022
Housing
🇺🇸 #Housing | US Homebuilder Sentiment Extends Year’s Decline as Rates Rise – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
*Sentiment has fallen every month this year, extending what was already the longest stretch of declines in data back to 1985 ⚠https://t.co/6FnIKomp33
AIA: Architecture Billings Index "decreases considerably" in October https://t.co/GZUaXfmgK4 Note that multi-family billing turned down in September and declined again in October, and if that continues, we will see a downturn in multi-family starts sometime in 2023. pic.twitter.com/xJ3Q5tdA8s
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2022
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey https://t.co/XlytxwukSS pic.twitter.com/9PrP9B2Npv
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2022
🇺🇸 #Housing | Rental Market Tracker: #Rents Rose 7.8% in October—Slowest Growth in 14 Months – Redfin
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
*Rents declined 0.9% on a month-over-month basis⚠
*Link: https://t.co/Ju4ZsocPzD pic.twitter.com/BzL2fAGfvN
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 *US 2- TO 10-YEAR YIELD CURVE INVERSION REACHES NEW EXTREME – BBG pic.twitter.com/5bymgRws4s
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
🇺🇸 Financial Risks Shouldn’t Shape #Fed Rate Decisions, Williams Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Hv0JFUQjFT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
🇺🇸 Bringing Inflation Down Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible, #Fed Official Says – WSJ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
*George: Fed Should Slow Down Pace of Rate Increases.https://t.co/hlsVw8EeEd
Fed’s Waller: The Higher The Policy Rate, The Stronger The Case For Slowing To 50Bps Hikeshttps://t.co/eDZcp5IXGk
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2022
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says 4.75% to 5.25% is a “reasonable” range for where policymakers could lift interest rates and then go on hold https://t.co/74K1FX91LE
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 16, 2022
*Focus on Treasuries
🇺🇸 US Plans to Unveil More Data on Treasuries Trading to Help Bond Market – Bloomberghttps://t.co/wEwR9uFFwf
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
🇺🇸 The cracks in the US #Treasury #bond market – FT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/9cMoVY9vMt pic.twitter.com/uTIHl8cB1a
🇺🇸 🌎 Foreign holdings of Treasuries drop to lowest since May 2021 -data – Reutershttps://t.co/xR9yAdQ7PZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
Politics
Republicans Win House Control By Narrow Margin, Dealing Blow To Biden Agenda – MSNBC https://t.co/ZbnAB0SaS4
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Singapore’s prime minister-in-waiting says the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is “a good start,” but that the fundamentals between the competing economies have not changed https://t.co/4xAq6UTQsc
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2022
Asia
Covid-19
🇨🇳 #China is capable of achieving “dynamic #Covid zero” and winning its fight against the pandemic, according to a commentary in People’s Daily.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/2e4cOAzHiC
🇨🇳 #China Vows to Build Hospitals to Prepare for More Outbreaks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/79jrfS8RFp
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 Goldman Sees #China Rebound Coming as #Covid Policy Fuels Optimism – Bloomberghttps://t.co/HEPIlk5qW6
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
🇨🇳 EXCLUSIVE-#CHINA GOVT ADVISERS SAY THEY WILL RECOMMEND 2023 ECONOMIC GROWTH TARGETS RANGING FROM 4.5% TO 5.5% TO WORK CONFERENCE NEXT MONTH – RTRS
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 #China | #Yuan Loses Tailwind From Goods Exports on Bearish Foreign-Exchange Outlook – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/X5FKvgrktO pic.twitter.com/Qls6wYqbmt
China Asks Banks To Report On Liquidity After Sudden Bond Rout – BBG https://t.co/r7plg2I6Vc
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
Indonesia’s central bank has delivered another large interest-rate increase to ease pressure on the rupiah that has become Asia’s worst-performing currency this quarter https://t.co/yucxXJgEeF
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
North Korea Fires An Unspecified Ballistic Missile Toward East Sea – Yonhap https://t.co/ogkwxGjuvd
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
North Korea Says Its Military Response Will Become 'More Furious' – RTRS https://t.co/yyCgFV80Fw
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Eurozone CPI (Y/Y) Oct F: 10.6% (est 10.7%; prev 9.9%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
– Eurozone CPI (M/M) Oct F: 1.5% (est 1.5%; prev 1.5%)
– Eurozone CPI Core (Y/Y) Oct F: 5.0% (est 5.0%; prev 5.0%)
Europe’s car sales recovery is held back by economic turmoil https://t.co/KgF30AayG1 via @eckldorna pic.twitter.com/pFOlFHw6ix
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
German chemical output drops as the economic outlook worsens https://t.co/zARtK44XKf via @WillWilkesNews pic.twitter.com/U1niZEH1yU
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
Monetary Policy
ECB policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, sources say (via @WeberAlexander & @zschneeweiss) https://t.co/hY9AnsmXis
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2022
Bailey not holding back, day before Hunt and Sunak will argue they are fixing the damage https://t.co/xIcf6o1t2E
— Philip Aldrick (@PhilAldrick) November 16, 2022
Fiscal Policy
UK Chancellor Hunt Bids To Repair Britain’s Tarnished Economic Reputation In Autumn Statement – FT https://t.co/Nq2kqdjqID
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 16, 2022
UK bond market is heading for a key test as budget day begins https://t.co/L40d6ZuYV5 via @alicegledhill1 pic.twitter.com/NuHjOxxsjv
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
‘We will face into the storm’
— Joe Mayes (@Joe_Mayes) November 17, 2022
Here’s what to expect in Hunt’s autumn statement:
~ £55bn of spending cuts, tax hikes
~ Lots of tax increases by stealth, by freezing thresholds
~ A ‘no alternative’ framing given 41-year-high inflation https://t.co/cjZLCE3OV5
EU faces deadline pressure as Hungary aid fight spills over: Brussels Edition https://t.co/B7Pu390Xhx via @europressos @LyubovEUWorld pic.twitter.com/z9BP0jyXzJ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2022
Energy
European buyers of LNG may have to commit to purchases for 15 years – three times longer than their preferred length of contracts – if they want lock in supplies from proposed US export facilities
— Bloomberg (@business) November 17, 2022
Latest updates: https://t.co/U4qhJNYYFE
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇺🇦 🌎 #Food | #Ukraine Says Grain Deal Will Be Extended for 120 Days – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ERmrcATI8B
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2022
France And Germany To Fire Up Stalled Fighter Jet Project – FT https://t.co/asXzOeL6Up
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 46 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 14, 2022
🌎 #G20 Summit
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Xi/Biden Meeting
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Earnings Season
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI
🇬🇧 U.K. Updates Fiscal Plan
…https://t.co/UKtLlEQWI8