Morning Brief: China’s Export Growth Weakens to 2020 Low, Cost of Default Hedges in Europe Keeps Rising
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 It confirms that excess savings (accumulated during the Covid crisis) among many working- and middle-class households were exhausted.
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 7, 2022
➡ This trend is not sustainable implying that household consumption will normalize ⬇ soon (especially with ⬆ rates).https://t.co/VrT08jk6gy
Used Car Prices Are Crashing Near Record Pace https://t.co/BzSiRJ3yEI
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2022
"For the first time since the price surge started in early 2021, we have revised our end-2022 core PCE forecasts down rather than up and are now more confident that both headline and core inflation have peaked in year-on-year terms"
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) May 9, 2022
Goldman's Hatzius pic.twitter.com/oUowEJVuMp
Monetary Policy
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇺🇸 Once #Biden advisors realize that their policies are leading to a #recession, they should probably push for other measures to reduce #inflation:
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
*Find a compromise regarding the Iran nuclear deal
*Lower tariffs on Chinese productshttps://t.co/pCibHSql9V
Asia
Covid-19
🇨🇳 #China | 'Stop asking why': #Shanghai tightens COVID lockdown – Reutershttps://t.co/QnUcK6FlnM
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
Economic Indicators and Prospects
The Indonesian economy grew steadily in the first quarter as stronger exports helped offset the omicron-induced weakness in domestic consumption https://t.co/KlXJpDujjV
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 9, 2022
🇨🇳 #China’s Export Growth Weakens to 2020 Low as Lockdowns Hit Ports – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
*Link: https://t.co/zLD70BxsCb pic.twitter.com/31KSEFVH8L
🇨🇳 #China Premier Warns of ‘Grave’ Jobs Situation Amid Lockdowns – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
*Statement (Chinese): https://t.co/rOheMslyBZhttps://t.co/lXYT4pLsrv
Housing
New-home sales in 23 major Chinese cities plunged 33% by area during a 5-day national holiday compared with a year earlier. Here's the latest on China's property developers https://t.co/NzD5YA6d1X
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 9, 2022
Monetary Policy
🇨🇳 #China central bank to launch relending facility to aid transport, logistics – Reutershttps://t.co/EDwaEmedGK
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 7, 2022
BoJ Minutes Of The Monetary Policy Meeting On March 17 And 18, 2022 – Full Report https://t.co/Y1OoQyswR5
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 8, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
🇷🇺 🇯🇵 #Japan to take time phasing out Russian #oil imports -PM Kishida – Reutershttps://t.co/Dk4vkZX5an
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Monetary Policy
🧵Russia’s war in Ukraine is first and foremost a human tragedy, President @Lagarde tells @Delo. It is also weighing on growth and boosting inflation. At the same time, the reopening of the economy after the pandemic is supporting economic activity https://t.co/3hP9yjKoOJ
— European Central Bank (@ecb) May 7, 2022
1/3 pic.twitter.com/bdjK88cgzg
Lagarde: Adjustments to our key interest rates will be gradual and will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases. My expectation is that these purchases should be concluded early in the third quarter
— European Central Bank (@ecb) May 7, 2022
3/3
The ECB should raise interest rates two to three times in small increments this year to tackle inflation, Robert Holzmann says https://t.co/IeOL2CWlsA
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 8, 2022
🇪🇺 *CREDIT RISK IN EUROPE TOPS KEY LEVEL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2020 – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
An index of credit default swaps for investment-grade firms in Europe climbed as high as 100.2 bps, a level not seen since the #Covid first roiled markets in 1H2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Europe’s corporate debt market is taking a battering as firms try to navigate soaring prices and an increasingly bleak outlook for the global economy https://t.co/V93w998Cd9
— Bloomberg (@business) May 9, 2022
Energy
Spain and Portugal have sent the European Commission their proposal on how to cap the price of natural gas used to generate electricity https://t.co/xCUFdI2EjG pic.twitter.com/rV2zTMaPdy
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 8, 2022
Politics
Scholz defends Ukraine stance as voters punish muddled policy https://t.co/wDTLw19gIq via @mcnienaber @ArneDelfs pic.twitter.com/UP2GYpE0re
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 8, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Russian President Vladimir Putin said his troops were fighting in Ukraine to prevent a repeat of the Second World War in his Red Square Victory Day speech
— Bloomberg (@business) May 9, 2022
The latest news on Russia's invasion of Ukraine: https://t.co/6FjLeZJfiv pic.twitter.com/IM1okjTCc5
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 RUSSIAN NEGOTIATOR SAYS PEACE TALKS WITH UKRAINE HAVE NOT STOPPED, THEY ARE BEING HELD REMOTELY – IFAX – RTRS
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
🇪🇺 🇮🇷 🌎 EU Nuclear Negotiator Mora to Visit Tehran Next Week, Nour Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/GrhWlGzRxq
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 7, 2022
Focus on Sanctions
EU push to ban Russian oil is stalled by Hungarian demands https://t.co/jBeV8OJIBQ via @E_Krukowska @nchrysoloras @albertonardelli pic.twitter.com/B0ICtA3FrC
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 8, 2022
🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 EU should seize Russian reserves to rebuild Ukraine, top diplomat says – FThttps://t.co/kXU2y1M0ey
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 19 (2022) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 9, 2022
🇷🇺 #Russia Victory Day
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI and PPI
🇺🇸 🇪🇺 #Fed & #ECB Speakers
…https://t.co/841FLNyKdW
G7 Leaders’ Statement
— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) May 8, 2022
“First, we commit to phase out our dependency on Russian energy, including by phasing out or banning the import of Russian oil. We will ensure that we do so in a timely and orderly fashion…” #OOTT https://t.co/23wIhkL4Np