Morning Brief: China Rolls Out New Stimulus Measures, EZ PMIs Missed
Americas
Economic Indicators and Prospects
JPMORGAN: “.. our recession probability model based solely on financial indicators .. now exceeds 41% .. the market is discounting a much higher probability than that implied from economic data, and using financial indicators alone has produced false positives ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/IvOYx19zZM
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 23, 2022
Monetary Policy
Fed's George: I Expect Fed's Policy Rate To Be In Neighbourhood Of 2% By August
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2022
– Evidence Inflation Is Clearly Decelerating Will Inform Judgments About Further Tightening
– Inflation Is Too High And Too Broad To Dismiss; Returning It To Fed's 2% Goal Is 'Top Priority'
Fed’s George Says Inflation Will Guide Moves After Rates Hit 2% https://t.co/2tvTVpFjbD
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 24, 2022
Banks And Funds Stash Record $2tn Overnight At Fed Facility – FT https://t.co/kQZD8eiDBj
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Asia
Covid-19
Economic Indicators and Prospects
JPMORGAN: “.. we downgraded our #China GDP forecast again and now look for 2Q GDP to contract ‒5.4%ar (previously ‒1.5%). .. our 2Q global growth forecast stands at just 0.6%ar‑‑easily the weakest quarter since the GFC outside of 2020 ..” pic.twitter.com/7Jr1jkR7Nr
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 23, 2022
Japan’s Inflation Seen Staying Above BoJ Target Through Year-End – BBG https://t.co/hBjFXjZG0E
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 24, 2022
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The four leaders of the "#Quad" group of countries vowed to work together for a free and open Indo-Pacific region and to fight climate change, as they met for talks aimed at standing up to an increasingly assertive #Chinahttps://t.co/4YbGH34NiB
— The Hindu (@the_hindu) May 24, 2022
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Eurozone flash #PMI data indicated robust growth in May amid a bouyant expansion in the services sector. However, inflation-led caution in the manufacturing sector meant that new orders fell for the first time since June 2020. More: https://t.co/nvKF3KlTLt pic.twitter.com/E2DIHbTktI
— IHS Markit PMI™ (@IHSMarkitPMI) May 24, 2022
May flash data for the UK pointed to a slump in private sector growth with the #PMI at a 15-month low of 51.8 (Apr: 58.2). The cost of living crisis hit customer demand hard. Read more: https://t.co/pUNlcF96UP pic.twitter.com/tppwZOiKlD
— IHS Markit PMI™ (@IHSMarkitPMI) May 24, 2022
Eurozone flash #PMI data indicated robust growth in May amid a bouyant expansion in the services sector. However, inflation-led caution in the manufacturing sector meant that new orders fell for the first time since June 2020. More: https://t.co/nvKF3KlTLt pic.twitter.com/E2DIHbTktI
— IHS Markit PMI™ (@IHSMarkitPMI) May 24, 2022
Monetary Policy
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau pushes back against the idea of a half-point rate increase https://t.co/8Tgrwxc0sR
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 24, 2022
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rejected the idea that the euro area is heading for a recession. Speaking exclusively to Bloomberg in Davos she said, "we are not in a panic mode."https://t.co/AILDC7Yv54 pic.twitter.com/BesxB3Jh7s
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) May 24, 2022
Fiscal Policy
UK Chancellor Sunak Orders Plan For Windfall Tax On Electricity Generators – FT https://t.co/Mym15VyS1u
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) May 23, 2022
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Habeck says a breakthrough in the EU oil embargo debacle should come “within days” but that it shouldn’t be put up for the EU leaders to decide next week — our interview from #Davos2022 #WEF22 https://t.co/fV5ld8ODUW
— Matina Stevis-Gridneff (@MatinaStevis) May 23, 2022
Von der Leyden in #Davos says the EU could support a Ukrainian push to confiscate Russian assets to pay for the country’s mass post-war reconstruction. “We should leave no stone unturned, including if possible Russian assets” #wef pic.twitter.com/JN0bpkBdIS
— Mehreen Khan (@MehreenKhn) May 24, 2022