Markets
S&P 500 ends Tuesday little changed as earnings season picks up steam https://t.co/p8hWfNguYh
— TradeDay (@TradeDayFunding) April 18, 2023
🇺🇸 🌎 BOFA APRIL GLOBAL FUND MANAGER SURVEY: MOST BEARISH OF 2023 ON CREDIT CRUNCH CONCERNS – RTRS
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2023
*HIGHEST BOND ALLOCATION SINCE MARCH 2009; MOST BEARISH REAL ESTATE SINCE JULY 2009
*CASH LEVELS REMAIN AT 5.5%; CREDIT CRUNCH & HAWKISH CENTRAL BANKS BIG TAIL RISKS
*Focus on banks
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇺🇸 US Paychecks Are Outpacing #Inflation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/z19H5Mq05T pic.twitter.com/0NO3eLaB45
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
🇺🇸 MORE US CONSUMERS ARE FALLING BEHIND ON PAYMENTS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) April 18, 2023
Consumers are starting to fall behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy softens, according to executives at the biggest U.S. banks, although they said delinquency levels were still modest.
"We've seen some… pic.twitter.com/tTbXmbzImW
Housing
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.420 million Annual Rate in Marchhttps://t.co/SwJMpVXsqT pic.twitter.com/ry4IZfH9v3
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 18, 2023
US housing market stabilizing as single-family homebuilding, permits surge https://t.co/KsSExmgehb pic.twitter.com/2uBJIp2v3N
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed’s Bostic Favours One More Rate Hike Then A Pause For Some Time – BBGhttps://t.co/9hlsW7UTcu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
🇺🇸 Three Regional #Fed Boards Sought Half-Point Discount Rate Hike – Bloomberghttps://t.co/11jF9BL8eT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
Fed's Bullard Discounts Recession Talk, Favours More Rate Hikes – RTRS https://t.co/D7pLUJof5C
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
The hunt for a new president of the Kansas City Fed has turned into a marathon that’s days from becoming the longest search this century. The big question: why so long? https://t.co/StihUtcZFn via @economics
— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) April 18, 2023
CRE
🇺🇸 #WhiteHouse Will Keep a Close Eye on Commercial Real Estate, Adviser Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/mFLnLi4XBZ
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
Fund managers see commercial real estate as the most likely source for a systemic credit event.
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) April 18, 2023
Source: @BankofAmerica pic.twitter.com/TVOe15KOe3
Here is how the expected drawdowns in commercial property prices compare to the GFC.
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) April 18, 2023
Source: @MorganStanley pic.twitter.com/u7HPjrSlir
Fiscal Policy
President Joe Biden blasted the proposals House Speaker Kevin McCarthy offered in a speech to Wall Street, saying the Republican plan would cause economic chaos https://t.co/KMidAAhYMf
— Jordan Fabian (@Jordanfabian) April 18, 2023
Goldman on default limit: “While the data are still very preliminary, weak tax collections so far in April suggest an increased probability that the debt limit deadline will be reached in the first half of June.”
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 18, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week will give her most extensive speech on the US-China economic relationship since taking office https://t.co/3UULu7ZIKM
— Bloomberg (@business) April 18, 2023
US House China Committee To War-Game Taiwan Invasion Scenario – Axios https://t.co/TUuqMSu3le
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 19, 2023
Businesses Urge US To Seek Partners For China Export Curbs – Nikkei https://t.co/QD61eaXScC
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
Markets
🇭🇰 #HongKong Interbank Liquidity Set to Hit Lowest Since 2008 – Bloomberghttps://t.co/qlpOOjAjar pic.twitter.com/IoczMgksrH
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
#China's 1Q GDP composition (0.1 billion yuan)
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 19, 2023
Industry +2.9% y/y
Manufacture +2.8%
Construction +6.7%
Wholesale & retail sale +5.5%
Hotel & catering +13.6%📈
Finance +6.9%
Real estate +1.3%📈
IT +11.2%📈
Leasing and business service +6% pic.twitter.com/CWitAvts1Z
Big Japanese Manufacturers Remain Gloomy As External Demand Ebbs – RTRS https://t.co/tAIBpNl66C
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
JPMorgan, Citi raise full-year forecasts for China’s economy https://t.co/x4yvYQ5Vmo
— CNBC (@CNBC) April 19, 2023
Australia’s chances of sliding into a recession have declined to 35%, according to a Bloomberg survey https://t.co/B4mMoBVPHb
— Bloomberg (@business) April 19, 2023
Housing
🇨🇳 #Housing | The #realestate sector grew 1.3% in January-March from a year earlier, according to NBS – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
*That marked a sharp rebound from the 7.2% decline in the final three months of last year — and it was the first quarter of growth since the second quarter of 2021 pic.twitter.com/aYC0AYkuT0
🇨🇳 #China | Several indicators suggest #property sector started recovering earlier than expected by the consensus. pic.twitter.com/hdgT5tRVC8
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
Monetary Policy
植田日銀総裁の初会合「YCC修正せず」9割 専門家調査https://t.co/K5gwzqjabk
— 日本経済新聞 電子版(日経電子版) (@nikkei) April 19, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
Chinese and Russian defense ministers this week agreed to expand cooperation and pledged “firm” support for each other, a sign of strong ties sustained since Russia's invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/6pE3tngQdm
— Bloomberg (@business) April 19, 2023
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Orders Preparation To Launch Military Spy Satellite As Planned -KCNA
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇬🇧 *TRADERS RAISE BETS ON PEAK #BOE RATE BY 14BPS TO 5% AFTER CPI – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
UK #Inflation Sticks Above 10%, Lifting Prospect of Rate Hike – Boomberghttps://t.co/gt5l7Eh1my pic.twitter.com/KxxteyuClq
Commenting on today’s inflation figures, ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner, said: (1/2)
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) April 19, 2023
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/51zVDjztTO
Central London House Prices Suffer Biggest Annual Fall Since 2019 – FT https://t.co/huocry1krd
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
Monetary Policy
https://t.co/YrzjFWh88z pic.twitter.com/FUskGVtt1P
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 18, 2023
Fiscal Policy
EU proposes $1.2 bln plan to counter growing cybersecurity threats https://t.co/ln5N7Zvf3Q pic.twitter.com/qsfC9ZNmWY
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 19, 2023
Energy
Record EU Gas Storage Raises Hopes Of Cutting Russian Dependence – FT https://t.co/qlyQhci1ZX
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 18, 2023
European Parliament backs reform of EU carbon market https://t.co/ATvM2o3YGQ pic.twitter.com/NL95vd6nZu
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2023
Politics
France's Macron promises government action plan in next 100 days https://t.co/zweWx9RkIV pic.twitter.com/OsXcfhhvKb
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
A top British government official is expected to provide details around Russia-aligned hackers that are attempting to damage critical national infrastructure in the UK https://t.co/UA5oyvZlIE
— Bloomberg (@business) April 18, 2023
A post-Merkel China policy for the post-Merkel era.
— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) April 18, 2023
Today CDU/CSU parliamentary group adopted an excellent China policy position paper with a clear positioning and lots of excellent proposals. pic.twitter.com/PpLWmtIkyN
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 16 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2023
🇨🇳 Chinese GDP
🇺🇸 U.S. Data
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 #BOE, #ECB & #FED Speakers
🇪🇺 ECB Minutes
🇺🇸 Fed Beige Bookhttps://t.co/hdCpMPzCXu