Morning Brief: China Drafts List of 50 Developers for Funding; Hunt Warns on Inflation Risk Ahead of Autumn Statement; Italy Exits Moody’s Junk Danger Zone
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
CTAs purchased $70 billion of U.S. Stocks over the last 10 days, the highest amount ever recorded 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/Ow9HNH8BzW
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 18, 2023
Hedge fund exposure to mega-cap tech is in the 99th percentile. At the start of 2023, exposure was in the 12th percentile.
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) November 16, 2023
via Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/83GhWXUCw8
🇺🇸 #WallStreet Traders Are Placing All-or-Nothing Bets on a Soft Landing – Bloomberghttps://t.co/YctWN15xhK pic.twitter.com/ps9Mwc9DRg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 18, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
On November 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.0%. https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos #ATLFedResearch
— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) November 17, 2023
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast. https://t.co/NOSwMl7Jms pic.twitter.com/hGKaq6Dw6i
PANTHEON MACRO: “The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place .. Our core view, then, is leaning towards the idea that by the end of 2024, the Fed will be worrying about inflation falling too far in 2025, and will be responding by easing rapidly.” @PantheonMacro #CPI pic.twitter.com/lkFM5cA2OM
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 19, 2023
Housing
New US home construction unexpectedly picked up in October, indicating builders continue to benefit from a limited supply in the resale market https://t.co/9ieMa6oHkB
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2023
October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction https://t.co/pxYvfCRRhs pic.twitter.com/juSqmQ3vFm
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said policymakers are likely at or near the end of their campaign to raise interest rates as inflation continues to cool https://t.co/JtgsSjEQSs
— Bloomberg (@business) November 17, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said policymakers should not take further tightening off the table despite welcome progress on inflation https://t.co/8jeXsr9PnM
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2023
Fiscal Policy
"We are at a point at which we are borrowing money to pay debt service… We are at the point of that acceleration, which creates the supply-demand problem." –@RayDalio https://t.co/5MgU1Chzx8
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 17, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Keep China's communications channels with Canada open, Trudeau urged Xi – CTV News: * Keep China's communications channels with Canada open, Trudeau urged Xi CTV News
— OnTheGroundNews.ca (@OTGNCanada) November 18, 2023
* Canada left out as China focuses on strengthening ties with US Global News
*… https://t.co/iEzEz23CC9
Asia
Markets
🇯🇵 Pimco Is Buying #Yen to Prepare for Tighter #BOJ Monetary Policy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/iYeGA4BEd0 pic.twitter.com/tNWBEiwR0e
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
🇨🇳 Chinese births at risk of falling below 9m in accelerating crisis – Nikkeihttps://t.co/socTeGWXUv pic.twitter.com/iVJtf7RIug
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
🇨🇳 #China Paper Urges to Look Beyond Short-term Economic Indicators – People’s Daily
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
➡ The short-term fluctuations in some economic indicators have sparked concerns about the prospects of China’s economy, but its long-term outlook remains sound as it focuses more on quality of…
🇯🇵 #Japan's back-to-back wage bonanza would open door for #BOJ exit – Reuters
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
https://t.co/wAF8tN6P8U pic.twitter.com/WbltVvVdVb
Housing
China needs to pull 'multiple levers' for property turnaround, say analysts https://t.co/twC6SsB0Hh pic.twitter.com/GSG7JZoSLh
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
⚡PBOC conducted 205 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Monday. A total of 92 billion yuan will be injected into the market on a net basis as 113 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/ZaWqc0jT5I
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 20, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
The support rate for Japanese PM Fumio Kishida hit new lows in three major polls, putting further pressure on his leadership https://t.co/KIXLDfYoiw
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 20, 2023
#Japan’s military holds drill on island potentially vulnerable to #China.
— Geo Political Updates (@GeoPolUpdates) November 20, 2023
PM Fumio Kishida has warned that East Asia could be the next #Ukraine, if mainland China, emboldened by #Russia’s assault on its neighbour, attacks #Taiwan.
https://t.co/XxT3FZwb7H
South Korea's Yoon seeks stronger economic, security ties on UK state visit https://t.co/GJcH5lUKCN pic.twitter.com/n4HKkADFZu
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 20, 2023
North Korea criticises potential sale of US missiles to Japan, South Korea https://t.co/lD4nnxGzZf pic.twitter.com/whjkFgpG0z
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 19, 2023
Europe
Markets
Traders are convinced that the ECB will sharply lower interest rates to cushion the economy from a severe slowdown https://t.co/ZIJJR4WSea
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 17, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
German PPI (M/M) Oct: -0.1% (est 0.0%; prev -0.2%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 20, 2023
– PPI (Y/Y): -11.0% (est -11.0%; prev -14.7%)
COLUMN: Europe's petrochemical industry is heading for death row.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) November 20, 2023
The last time European petrochemical plants processed so little of their favorite feedstock, Sweden’s ABBA was the most popular band on the continent. It was 1975.
Read it here: https://t.co/OonhEFiY2h | @Opinion pic.twitter.com/CXcmUlgmf9
Eurozone inflation fell to 2.9% in October, bang in line with the advance signal from the #PMI. At its current level, the PMI points to inflation down to 2% #ECB target in early 2024 pic.twitter.com/SsAVqaQVxC
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) November 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
#ECB’s decision to halt interest rate increases at is fully justified by a slowdown in #inflation, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says.
— BQ Prime (@bqprime) November 17, 2023
Read more ⬇️https://t.co/gGlNnjEkkj
An ECB interest rate cut won’t happen in the near future, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel https://t.co/KUNta4IS2k
— Bloomberg (@business) November 17, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇬🇧 Hunt Warns on Inflation Risk as UK Tax Cut Expectations Grow – Bloomberghttps://t.co/zOoe8eDbU7https://t.co/cBFKtlCk2O
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
🇮🇹 #Italy Exits Moody’s Junk Danger Zone in Big Win for Meloni – Bloomberghttps://t.co/NNQNjXy9WN pic.twitter.com/u3XgzSaxJi
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 20, 2023
Italy will never put the sustainability of its mammoth public debt at risk, a senior official in Giorgia Meloni’s government pledged https://t.co/bMrVkliYMz
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 17, 2023
The Italian government is unlikley to ratify the EU’s bailout fund until there’s more clarity on the bloc’s new fiscal rules, Finance Ministry Undersecretary Federico Freni said https://t.co/R6Gj703VuQ
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 17, 2023
Energy
Europe Gas Jumps After Seized Vessel In Red Sea Stirs War Fears – BBG https://t.co/LfQ6jCC8Mi
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 20, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
EU And Mercosur Trade Bloc Ramp Up Talks In Bid To Close Deal In Coming Weeks – @FThttps://t.co/kf3VH1sSlu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 20, 2023
"Europe Moves to Fill Weapons Gap Amid Doubts About U.S. Commitment to Ukraine" by Lara Jakes via NYT https://t.co/ZJwSHultCW #IFTTT
— Joey Confrey (@RealJoeyConfrey) November 18, 2023
Russia may be starting a new round of attacks on Ukraine's power grid https://t.co/8U83bK6RPp
— Bloomberg (@business) November 18, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 47 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 19, 2023
🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 #ECB, #FED and #RBA Minutes
🇬🇧 UK’s Autumn Statement
🇪🇺 EU Budgets’ Report
🌎 Central Banks’ Speeches; Black Friday
🇳🇱 Dutch Parliamentary Election
…https://t.co/eIvK8Hjhoi
🛢 Hedge Funds’ Bearish Oil Bets Put Pressure on OPEC Ahead of Meeting – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 19, 2023
➡ Money managers cut their bullish #Brent and #WTI #oil bets by 18,829 combined net-long positions to 252,261 (the lowest level since June 27 ⚠)https://t.co/RuwwxWIhj5 pic.twitter.com/fewiwpMyUL
OPEC+ to consider whether more oil cuts needed – sources https://t.co/peSNR5zOoa pic.twitter.com/6ZYC7mCE7o
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 17, 2023
45 days after the IDF ground operation began in #Gaza, Israel denies Arab reports of a ceasefire
— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) November 20, 2023
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*Note: Previous briefs can be found here