Morning Brief: Beige Book Points To A Slowdown; Japan Exports Growth Slows; ECB Set to Keep Hiking If Projections Hold
Americas
Markets
*Focus on banks
The Federal Home Loan Bank system—sometimes known as the lender of *next-to-last* resort to U.S. banks—issued a record $495 billion of debt in March to fund advances (loans) to banks https://t.co/mI3am4GkSr
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 19, 2023
Headline now
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) April 19, 2023
*US TREASURY CASH PILE ROSE $108B TO $253B ON TAX FILING DAY
This means in two weeks, when H8 data is reported for this period, bank deposits should fall by a similar amount.
And bank deposits should continue to fall over the next several days.
Explained below. https://t.co/2JecqmYAJs
Economic Indicators and Prospects
LA Port Inbound Traffic Down Sharply YoY in Marchhttps://t.co/caQClyOSuM
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 19, 2023
Imports were down 35% YoY in March, and exports were up 3% YoY pic.twitter.com/5LLNjXYLAW
A credit slump is coming.
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) April 19, 2023
Source: @OxfordEconomics pic.twitter.com/4rUwzBFbQI
Housing
🇺🇸 #Housing | Home Prices Fell 3% in March—Biggest Annual Drop in Over a Decade – Redfinhttps://t.co/HrDvUyJFWp pic.twitter.com/zICOTyRalL
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
🇺🇸 #Housing | US 30-Year #Mortgage Rate Climbs by Most in Two Months to 6.43% – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
*The group’s index of mortgage applications for home purchases dropped 10% in the week ended April 14, the steepest decline in two months.https://t.co/tjVPZhjG3u pic.twitter.com/g2bGX5rPaV
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Surveyhttps://t.co/KegLezPxVA pic.twitter.com/ktia8ka1rZ
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 19, 2023
AIA: Architecture Billings "Slightly Improved" in Marchhttps://t.co/5W4nyAj2b1
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) April 19, 2023
Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for eight consecutive months. This suggests we will see a downturn in multi-family starts this year. pic.twitter.com/UbS4bC6q8O
Monetary Policy
🇺🇸 US Economy Stalls as Credit Narrows, #Fed’s Beige Book Says – Bloomberghttps://t.co/yqTRABtbT1
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 20, 2023
The Fed's Beige Book accumulates anecdotal reports on business activity from across the 12 reserve bank districts.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 19, 2023
San Francisco (which covers the Western U.S.): "Lending activity decreased substantially." https://t.co/0wJKE03Q7q pic.twitter.com/oEEW2bZAGk
CRE
Was Feb 2023 peak Return To Office?
— Nick Bloom (@I_Am_NickBloom) April 19, 2023
The three best indicators of Return to Office (or its inverse, Working From Home) all show drops in office occupancy and rises in WFH in March 2023.
It looks increasingly like RTO has finally stalled out. pic.twitter.com/A3E9PpEV46
European commercial real estate prices are down 21% and back at 2016 levels.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) April 19, 2023
Nothing to see here. pic.twitter.com/uSlf9mYibi
Fiscal Policy
Debt limit deadline might be sooner than expected, economists warn https://t.co/MxeF5qrd00
— Axios (@axios) April 18, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
NEW: Several major donors are holding off giving $ for next few months amid disappointment re: DeSantis's recent performance, his comments on Ukraine + what they see as his clumsy attacks on Trump.
— Nancy Cook (@nancook) April 19, 2023
Several plan to see how he performs in Aug debate: https://t.co/wz37k7HdcD
Asia
Markets
Japanese stocks are less dependent on US share moves now — here's why https://t.co/burqrvE3Z0
— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2023
As bullish retail investor bets on South Korean electric-vehicle battery-related stocks drive one of the world’s best equity rallies, daily short-selling turnover has climbed to record levels https://t.co/lPi6XJgzr7
— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Housing
🇨🇳 #China | *#PBOC: 12 CHINA CITIES REMOVED FIRST HOME MORTGAGE RATE FLOOR – BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 20, 2023
Monetary Policy
China’s commercial lenders kept their benchmark lending rates unchanged after the central bank held back from easing monetary policy this month as the economy rebounds https://t.co/BjRvKtFGF3
— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2023
An RBA fit for the future
— 🔥💧😷🔋On mastodon as @allanjs@aus.social🔋😷💧🔥 (@AllanSeymour1) April 19, 2023
The RBA will soon have its biggest shake-up since the 1990s with a new monetary policy board to set cash rate.
This comes after it suffered serious reputational damage over its outlook that interest rates wld not rise until 2024https://t.co/n0fInVHXep
Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe pushed back against criticism of his rate-setting board by an external panel and reiterated that he’s willing to remain at the helm if offered an extension of his term https://t.co/idUwowkq1N
— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2023
BOJ Is Said to Be Wary of Tweaking YCC Soon After Banking Crisishttps://t.co/6JfURf1dez via @economics
— Robert Jameson (@rhjameson) April 19, 2023
🔵 JAPANESE FIRMS WANT STABILITY RATHER THAN CHANGE FROM NEW BOJ GOVERNOR
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) April 19, 2023
– Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/RLOKWIbwGr pic.twitter.com/cLPPGF8BLi
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
The chances of more extreme events later in the year has increased https://t.co/7piNJg64I4
— Bloomberg (@business) April 20, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Surging UK prices defy efforts by Sunak, BOE to tame inflation https://t.co/GbXqgazfky via @PhilAldrick @tomelleryrees @dasha_reports pic.twitter.com/jOmYIdslU6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 19, 2023
🇬🇧 #Housing | #London Rents Soar at Fastest Pace in More Than a Decade – Bloomberghttps://t.co/szhcCxNrIN pic.twitter.com/nlwm8y22oT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB set to keep hiking if projections hold, de Cos says https://t.co/hKcCx3oNok via @alonsosotoj @mariatad pic.twitter.com/WkkIPUN0G9
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 19, 2023
ECB’s Schnabel says too hard to call outcome of May meeting https://t.co/6KwZmToxIC via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/DFkvpWQagG
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 20, 2023
Fiscal Policy
The European Union will reach an agreement on the review of its common fiscal rules because “we need to and we have to,” said Paschal Donohoe, president of the Eurogroup https://t.co/n6t1vuxDW1
— Bloomberg (@business) April 19, 2023
Energy
French winter power twice as pricey as Germany’s on nuclear woes https://t.co/g4xKIa49kU via @_ToddGillespie pic.twitter.com/3Kq9hEO2pX
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 19, 2023
Trade, Supply Chain and Geopolitics
French President Macron’s push to enlist China’s help to sketch out possible talks between Russia and Ukraine has drawn criticism from some allies https://t.co/g8ChBgikEN
— Bloomberg (@business) April 19, 2023
Italy eyes Taiwan chip deals ahead of decision on China pact https://t.co/j178yEVisd via @chiaraalbanese @aspeciale pic.twitter.com/oJLc5TWbk8
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 20, 2023
Russian Memo Said War Leaves Moscow Too Reliant On Chinese Tech – BBG https://t.co/dekdBh9Jpl
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 19, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead: Week 16 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2023
🇨🇳 Chinese GDP
🇺🇸 U.S. Data
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 #BOE, #ECB & #FED Speakers
🇪🇺 ECB Minutes
🇺🇸 Fed Beige Bookhttps://t.co/hdCpMPzCXu