Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w47 (2022)

Everyone focused on the rate-hike cycle while the Fed continues to shrink its holdings of Treasury bonds and notes at the steepest pace in history.

$40b just last week. pic.twitter.com/GiZ7jRrtzR

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 21, 2022

Let’s try to answer these two questions by refreshing 5 of the most relevant leading indicators within my macro framework.

#1: The Global Credit Impulse

When Recession? – March 2023
How Bad? – Bad

Let's look into it.

5/ pic.twitter.com/d5fRV0uIMl

— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 23, 2022

The NAHB housing index (orange, inverted) leads trends in US unemployment rate (blue) by roughly 12 months

According to the Sahm Rule, a recession starts when the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 50+ bps relative to its low during the previous 12m

10/ pic.twitter.com/H5VVq4NnM3

— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 23, 2022

… is the Forecast for New Orders subsection: C-Suites get asked about what they see ahead for business activity

Over the last 40 years, every time the 12m moving average of the Philly Fed New Orders dropped below 15 for 2+ consecutive months, a recession always followed

13/ pic.twitter.com/Di2FSake86

— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 23, 2022

The percentage of inversions in the US Treasury yield curve just exceeded the critical 70% level last week. Every breach of this threshold in the history of the data back to 1970 has led to a near-term recession.

h/t @TaviCosta 🧵 pic.twitter.com/NTSyUcPQFH

— Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) November 21, 2022

🇺🇸 #SPX | Risk Appetite Is Surging Again in Markets Seduced by #Fed Hope – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/eQmR4Ixq7w pic.twitter.com/xu5pc0Q1Sd

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 26, 2022

🇩🇪 German Bond Curve Inverts Most in 30 Years in Growth Warning – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/CnC3mom0cm pic.twitter.com/oZ2b4CsSGZ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 24, 2022

Credit impulse is back pic.twitter.com/fNeaVEmcRw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 26, 2022

🇨🇳 #Beijing | Streets were deserted in what were normally some of the busiest regions, even during rush hour. Subway ridership plunged more than 64% for the week through Wednesday, compared to the same period in 2019, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transit data. pic.twitter.com/59jmruxGWe

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 25, 2022

🇪🇺 European Cold Spell Poised to Boost #Energy Demand for Weeks – Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/UmrNqZqfyq pic.twitter.com/msiHnHl18p

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 24, 2022