Morning Brief: U.S. Labor Market Weakened; China Asks Some Big Banks to Cap Rates on Short-Term Funding; Germany Existing Home Prices Keep Falling
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Israel Latest
Geopolitics
Follow the latest updates from the Israel-Hamas war https://t.co/Mc3ll1LqEa
— Bloomberg (@business) November 17, 2023
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 #Iran told US it did not want #Israel–#Hamas war to escalate – FThttps://t.co/vC8JXgRiYT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2023
New polls in #Israel continue to show a collapse of Netanyahu's party and coalition.
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) November 17, 2023
In the latest poll by an Israeli outlet, Benny Gantz soars to 36 seats, which is more than double the number of seats Netanyahu's party would secure (17). Gantz's list secured 12 seats in the… pic.twitter.com/hG9MUcoDUw
Americas
Markets
And there it is:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 16, 2023
"Over the last 10 days – CTAs have bought nearly $70bn of US equities… this is the largest 10d buying we have on record." https://t.co/yflTjZwcrL
Pre-election years under a new President have looked a lot like what we've seen so far in '23.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 16, 2023
Should this continue, expect higher prices by year-end.
In fact, a 20% year isn't out of the question. pic.twitter.com/VN0VMDb1cY
OOPS! Money-Market Fund Assets rose to record $5.73tn. Investors have piled into money funds ever since last year, when the Fed began one of the most-aggressive tightening cycles in decades. Fund managers have been quicker to pass on the benefits of higher rates than banks. (BBG) pic.twitter.com/os5QcH19lb
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 16, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
⚠️ US IMPORT PRICES POST LARGEST DROP IN SEVEN MONTHS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) November 16, 2023
Full Story → https://t.co/GtqlFNB9WJ
U.S. import prices fell more than expected in October amid a broad decline in the costs of goods, the latest indication that inflation was retreating. pic.twitter.com/oo74iHo7y9
🇺🇸 Walmart Falls on Cautious Consumer Outlook, Late-October Dip – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 16, 2023
➡There was a “sharper falloff” in sales during the last two weeks of October, Rainey said.https://t.co/dzfd91n9Em pic.twitter.com/EpCYfUP3mJ
'Small businesses are increasingly reporting declining sales and earnings.' https://t.co/zsPa70ePZq via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/1thRBwsXuW
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 16, 2023
*Focus on labor market
Both the Leading & Coincident Index of Employment are following almost exactly the average path post-yield curve inversion.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) November 16, 2023
Both are nearing the historical "brink" of the waterfall. pic.twitter.com/zyr6TWX92o
I spend a lot of time tracking housing data (especially when there's monetary tightening in the pipeline) as it gives us a sense of what lies ahead for the broader economy. Ed Leamer documented this phenomenon in his seminal paper from 2006 titled "Housing Is The Business Cycle". pic.twitter.com/uz8a7jyThK
— Francois Trahan (@FrancoisTrahan) November 16, 2023
Housing
Realtor. com Reports Active Inventory UP YoY https://t.co/vt6X7PDUb3 pic.twitter.com/NHcgtwxePF
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 16, 2023
Strikes
UAW ratifies labor deal with General Motors https://t.co/03rGWvaOVp pic.twitter.com/Xa0OHco2yd
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 16, 2023
Monetary Policy
Fed's Mester: I am expecting growth to slow below trendhttps://t.co/MVaDOsycjy
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 16, 2023
Exclusive: Three Fed governors tell US senator there is room to reduce balance sheet https://t.co/TqiQB6fTwJ pic.twitter.com/ubS2oQLvVz
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 16, 2023
After this morning's generally soft data releases, the market is now pricing in a small probability (i.e., ~5%) of rate cuts in January for the first time this cycle.
— Parker Ross (@Econ_Parker) November 16, 2023
Odds of a 25bps cut in May have now climbed to nearly 90% from closer to 20% less than a week ago.
Followed by… pic.twitter.com/8lb6jYLyfP
Fiscal Policy
The Treasury’s top domestic finance official said the US government debt market has functioned well amid outsized interest-rate volatility, a regional banking crisis and the recent hack of the world’s largest lender https://t.co/jfs1PCouBF
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 16, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
The Biden administration is prepared to revoke all licenses recently awarded to Venezuela if Nicolás Maduro doesn’t present a path toward fairer elections by the end of November https://t.co/2jRBk07On6
— Bloomberg (@business) November 16, 2023
The US and its European allies are pushing a plan to deploy an international peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip after the war, according to people familiar with the matter https://t.co/m3sJP3gUM2
— Bloomberg (@business) November 16, 2023
Asia
Markets
Alibaba Plunges $20 Billion as Chip War Prompts Breakup Rethink https://t.co/5mRRx6rKuT
— Shehzad Younis شہزاد یونس (@shehzadyounis) November 17, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
#China cut holdings of #US #Treasuries for 6th straight month in Sept to $778.1 bn, lowest since May 2009, falling below $800 bn for first time in 14 years, showed data from US Department of Treasuryhttps://t.co/haGgRmRP6L
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 17, 2023
Housing
In China's top-tier cities, new home prices returned to declines after short-lived rebound driven by policy easing … https://t.co/FPnF8OKcKE
— Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) November 17, 2023
Monetary Policy
The Hong Kong dollar 3-month HIBOR rises to the highest since August. pic.twitter.com/xUB4W9X6iz
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 17, 2023
⚡PBOC cuts the $CNY Central Parity Rate by 4 pips to 7.1724 per USD, still 776 pips stronger than market expectations.#China $USDCNY $USDCNH pic.twitter.com/Ho7V8oXAcl
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 17, 2023
Statement by Governor UEDA concerning the Bank's Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control (Committee on Financial Affairs, House of Representatives) https://t.co/kjE0QasPwm
— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) November 17, 2023
Fiscal Policy
🇨🇳 #China Is Sailing Its Way Through a Record Year of Debt Sales – Bloomberghttps://t.co/7AHKO8nnJw pic.twitter.com/jwbggzLE3x
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 17, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
⚡Xi tells Kishida that #China and #Japan should focus on common interests, properly handle differences, reaffirm the positioning of a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship, and infuse it with new meaning. Both are committed to building a China-Japan relationship that… https://t.co/0KtK463bF7
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 17, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (M/M) Oct: -0.3% (est 0.4%; prevR -1.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2023
– Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (Y/Y) Oct: -2.7% (est -1.6%; prevR -1.3%)
– Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (M/M) Oct: -0.1% (est 0.5%; prevR -1.3%)
– Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (Y/Y) Oct: -2.4% (est -1.5%; prevR -1.5%)
Retail sales fell 0.3% in October 2023, following a fall of 1.1% in September.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
When we look more broadly, sales fell 1.1% in the three months to October when compared with the previous three months.
➡️ https://t.co/kdVkeib2AC pic.twitter.com/Lr0o9RIodG
Untapped tech adoption could boost EU economy by €628 billion https://t.co/gfVAuSgwEV via @WindSonja pic.twitter.com/vlQWhxor8t
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 17, 2023
Housing
Monetary Policy
Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden says UK interest rates are likely to remain elevated for a lengthy period of time https://t.co/c4KeRLSsso
— Bloomberg (@business) November 16, 2023
NEW: Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene says interest rates will need to remain higher for longer to control inflation https://t.co/KIVawxW2Zv
— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) November 16, 2023
*Todays Scheduled CB Speakers*
— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) November 17, 2023
ALL TIMES GMT
ECB Villeroy 8am
ECB Lagarde 8.30am
ECB Holzmann 9am
ECB Vujcic 9.15am
ECB Nagel 1pm
ECB Wunsch 1.15pm
ECB Cipollone 3pm
BoE Ramsden 1.10pm
BoE Greene 1.15pm
Fed Collins/Barr 1.45pm
Fed Daly 2.30pm
Fed Goolsbee 2.45pm
Fiscal Policy
Germany's Budget Committee Interrupts 2024 Budget Deliberations – MS https://t.co/Y5cZoRX38l
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 17, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Bloomberg
— NZH2 (@Nzh2Nzh2590781) November 16, 2023
"Germany’s Scholz to Block Erdogan Plan to Buy Fighter Jets"https://t.co/dNcFCWu9hD
Sweden's NATO bid delayed in Turkish parliament https://t.co/qLbgz9doYI pic.twitter.com/D0WWPqHjUo
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 16, 2023
Finland will close four of its busiest border crossings with Russia after concluding that an influx of migrants from third countries was an organized operation https://t.co/UbfaPZQqnI
— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) November 16, 2023
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said the shift in focus to the Israel-Hamas war has slowed deliveries of artillery shells to Kyiv https://t.co/CR2QqyW8NB
— Bloomberg (@business) November 16, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 46 (2023) ⚠
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 12, 2023
🇺🇸 U.S. Budget Deadline
🌏 #APEC Meetings
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 U.S. and U.K. #Inflation
🇨🇳 Chinese Data
🇪🇺 EC Economic Outlook
🌎 Central Banks’ Speeches
…https://t.co/wmFhzVvO76
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here